This has already led to the rekindling of the #SSCKhatumo conflict and the birth of an #Awdal insurgency in #Somaliland, a proxy war between Somaliland and #Djibouti, and the looming threat of an Ethiopian-Egyptian proxy war in #Somalia. Al #Shabaab (AS) has already largely benefitted from the spat and seems to have formed close ties with the #Houthis.

#Egypt #Yemen #Ethiopia

Ethiopian client regions #Jubaland and Southwest are highly dependent on Ethiopian continued military involvement to fight Al #Shabaab (AS) and have previously expressed their opposition to any escalatory move on the part of #Somalia. This new show of force however, after several thousand Ehtiopian troops crossed the border in June, can be expected to trigger Somali resistance and further strengthen AS propaganda.

https://medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/ethiopian-show-of-force-in-somalia-615ef7c233f4?source=user_profile---------29----------------------------

#Somaliland #Egypt

#China has signalled for a few years her interests in turning the region into a “hub of peace, development and prosperity”, but her efforts have come short. Although her mediation between #Iran and #SaudiArabia had welcome effects in the region, her sympathy for Iran should have given her the tools to mitigate the impact of the Iran-#Israel proxy war on the Horn. Instead, reports of ever tighter cooperation between #Houthis and Al #Shabaab worsen conflicts in #Kenya and #Somalia.

#Ethiopia

#Somalia is caught between a rock and a hard place. Her vital interests include collaborating with neighbouring #Ethiopia to quench Al #Shabaab (AS), with a rekindled bilateral hostility causing further tensions between regional states and Mogadiscio. She meanwhile has to undertake a propaganda war with AS over inflamed national and religious feelings. Taking a firm stance is a matter of political survival for her leadership.

#Somaliland

Other fronts concern #Somalia’s sovereignty over its airspace and the Abudwak incident, reframed by Somalia as Ethiopian support to Al #Shabaab.

https://medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/ethiopia-somalia-the-war-for-the-air-8b4759531c02

https://medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/the-abudwak-incident-463459cfc45f

he latter served to prove #Ethiopia had clients among Somali regions, including #Jubaland and Southwest, which rely heavily on Ethiopian involvement in and out of #ATMIS to fight Al #Shabaab.

https://medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/somalia-changes-strategy-on-ethiopia-somaliland-mou-781817e4633b

#Somalia #Somaliland

Calls for the resignation of president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud are not new. The blame has usually been directed at the realization of the programme on which he has been elected. Difficulties on the front against Al #Shabaab, a looming threat of war with #Ethiopia and #Somaliland and a constitutional crisis of Hassan Sheikh’s own making, alienating #Puntland, mean the Abudwak incident might prove a turning point in his tenure however.

#Somalia

Mogadiscio has likewise been on the defensive in the information front, after #VOA claimed all territorial gains on Al #Shabaab since the beginning of the all-out war 2 years ago had now been reversed. The current hostilities have been the deadliest in the country for the past 30 years.

#Somalia

Some reports point to the responsibility of arms dealers close to the Somali and Djiboutian power circles, with the arms originating in #Djibouti and transiting through #Ethiopia. Others believe the arms have been purchased in Ethiopia to equip regional forces in #Galmudug. Opposition MPs have worried the weapons were intended for Al #Shabaab and praised the militia for taking control of the cargo.

https://garoweonline.com/en/news/somalia/at-least-15-killed-in-somalia-after-weapon-smuggling-from-ethiopia

#Somalia