Will Ethiopian troops stay in #Somalia?
Since the crisis between the two countries, sparked by the signature of a MoU between #Ethiopia and #Somaliland on 1 January, a number of threats have been uttered and wounds reopened. This is also the case since #Turkey has been attempting a mediation, fragile but currently ongoing, in June.
https://medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/is-the-ethiopia-somaliland-mou-finally-dead-13f58a80e7de
To the Ethiopian threat of war and of bypassing Mogadiscio’s veto on some of the main terms of the MoU (recognition of #Somaliland’s independence, establishment of a naval base in Zeila), responded a Somali threat of rekindling a pansomali insurgency within Ethiopian borders.
Other fronts concern #Somalia’s sovereignty over its airspace and the Abudwak incident, reframed by Somalia as Ethiopian support to Al #Shabaab.
https://medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/ethiopia-somalia-the-war-for-the-air-8b4759531c02
https://medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/the-abudwak-incident-463459cfc45f
The sharpest focus remains on whether Ethiopian troops will remain on Somali soil beyond the end of #ATMIS in December 2024. A new mission, #AUSSOM , is to replace it and be led by #Egypt, #Ethiopia’s Nilotic rival.
https://medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/somalia-and-egypt-are-set-to-become-close-allies-44acc820d03a
The Ethiopian FM has inflamed the situation by stating recently that “no power can stop Ethiopia” “without asking permission to anyone”, that #Ethiopia will not allow #Somalia to oppose its interest, and will only consider her own national interest in her decision to remain. This is textbook #imperialism, thus reinforcing the Somali position on the MoU.
The Somali FM now responds by recollecting “atrocities” committed by Ethiopian troops during their earliest intervention, in the late 2000’s, which are said by him to have led to 20,0000 deaths. Echoing a rather softening of the Somali position since mediation has been attempted by #Turkey, he therefore added that for Ethiopian troops to remain on Somali soil, #Ethiopia should first recognize #Somalia’s sovereignty.
During the weaker phase of the crisis for #Somalia, as her botched ultimatum failed, #Ethiopia deployed several thousand troops across the border in a show of force. Despite overtly consulting with elders and awaiting official authorization to proceed, those troops had to withdraw however, due to continued hostility from both the Somali government and population. The incident exposes clearly the weaknesses in each position.
https://medium.com/@mathieu.gotteland/ethiopian-show-of-force-in-somalia-615ef7c233f4
Mathieu Gotteland
