@mastodonmigration

Some work has been done and published on residence time in orbit.
Small fragments low down - even at perigee - fall out quite quickly.

https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/faq/

I'm not a mathematician, but it is probably a time between collision problem rather than an amount.

Neal Stephenson's recent #SF novel #SevenEves as well as being well-worth reading does discuss the progression of a slow cascade from a single very large starting point in a larger volume.

@hollie @SeaFury On a slightly related note, I'm hoping someone will make Neal Stephenson's #Seveneves into a movie... Maybe minus the last part (save that for a sequel everyone will hate).

It could make for a nice claustrophobic survival drama, plus it's got a US president as a villain, so it would be pretty contemporary. 🤷

@urlyman I read this line: "The effects of climate change are threatening our efforts to *deal* with climate change.” and it got me a bit worried. I am thinking of a point in #SevenEves where someone did some math and understood a serious problem:

https://nealstephenson.com/news/2015/04/13/seveneves-excerpt/