The Ethiopian-Somali crisis is about power and control
For #Ethiopia, the signing of a MoU with #Somaliland in January serves both purposes of domestic and foreign policy. It is about obtaining prestige, projecting power, coercing neighbours (including #Djibouti and #Eritrea), symbolically rebuilding a navy.
So far, #Ethiopia can be said to have failed on all accounts, including by hurting her close relations with #Somalia and thus endangering her military presence in that country. She is isolated on the regional and world stage. Her closest allies, #China and #Turkey, unambiguously support Somalia. Her strategy has helped archrival #Egypt gain a foothold in Somalia.
For #Somaliland, the signing of a MoU with #Ethiopia was supposed to be a bold stroke to get out of a difficult situation. Despite official recognition by #Taiwan and informal support from #Djibouti and the #UAE, matters of domestic policy had led to the utter fragilization of both the president and de facto state, including through the secession of #SSCKhatumo in the East (supported by #Puntland).
#Somaliland seeked to exert effective control over her claimed territory and borders, rebuild its army, defeat #SSCKhatumo and have her independence recognized by a UN member. A stake in Ethiopia Airlines was here to sweeten the deal.
So far, it can be said to have failed on all accounts. #Ethiopia still exercizes caution as to military support and official recognition. A new secessionist movement appeared in the West, in relation with the project of an Ethiopian naval base. The MoU triggered a proxy war with former ally #Djibouti, which now supports both #SSCKhatumo and #Awdal secessionists. Khatumo forces recently launched a raid on Erigavo, in #Sanaag, contesting Somaliland’s continued control of its coastline.
The MoU also helped an agreement with #Turkey on the control of Somali waters, including #Somaliland’s. Another spat stemming from the same non-binding agreement has arisen over the control of Somaliland’s airspace.
#Somalia is caught between a rock and a hard place. Her vital interests include collaborating with neighbouring #Ethiopia to quench Al #Shabaab (AS), with a rekindled bilateral hostility causing further tensions between regional states and Mogadiscio. She meanwhile has to undertake a propaganda war with AS over inflamed national and religious feelings. Taking a firm stance is a matter of political survival for her leadership.
#Somalia also undertook to rebuild a modern, functioning state, with promising albeit sometimes controversial first steps undertaken on the constitution or finances. The MoU, a challenge to her sovereignty, is also a painful reminder of her worst years of state collapse and dual track diplomacy. This helps understand the economic siege of #Somaliland.
Dialogue should again be the option it always remained, as exemplified by a Somali-#Somaliland agreement signed on the eve of the Ethiopian-Somaliland MoU and Somali restraint on Berbera and Khatumo.
Mathieu Gotteland