AMOC Tipping Point Warning System: Physics Based Indicators for Europe’s Climate Future

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AMOC Collapse Research Update with RenΓ© van Westen

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Eyesore alarm 😁
AMOC Figure 1A from #ReneVanWesten et al 2024 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189 depicts the fictional, modelled AMOC in a pre-industrial environment with only freshwater added continuously.
I took the liberty to superimpose a chart on it with AMOC proxy data from #Thornalley 2018 and #Rahmstorf 2015.
All three were "produced" in a pre-industrial world. But Rahmstorf's and Thornalley's AMOC comprise the effects of greenhouse gases #GHG and land-use change #LUC, and all that comes with them.

I'm just sharing it for , dunno, well, to share the shock. The similarity had struck me when I saw vanWesten's chart and recalled the one from Thornalley. It has a peak early on, just like the computed model, and races downhill approximately after the same amount of years as the model run. It also has a slow decline before the cliff like the model but I can't make that visible, somehow.
Data for Thornalley and Rahmstorf can be found in Caesar 2021's data repository https://github.com/ncahill89/AMOC-Analysis

@rahmstorf
Thanks. Also reading that new #OpenAccess paper by #RenevanWesten on #AMOC simulation https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
Their slow freshwater forcing that lead to collapse after 1750 years lets me think of #MIS11 , the very long interglacial 420thsd years ago, and of last year's paper where they had found a plant leaf at the bottom of the ice core in West #Greenland , indicating that it was ice free some time during MIS11.
Shouldn't that freshwater input combined with , I assume, precipitation changes similar to today's due to similar temperatures, also have lead to AMOC collapse? And which proxy would tell us if that was the case? What may have endured in London or Bergen for 420ky that still tells that story?
But what I know of global MIS11, AMOC didn't collapse, and Earth noving to the next ice age was a slow escalator, not a clear slide like I'd expect from after a AMOC collapse.

I haven't learned much yet on Heinrich events. But the new paper also creates the impression that AMOC is also sensitive to relatively fast temperature changes when Earth is racing out of a glacial and changes her rain patterns everywhere, over ocean and land, while not at all reaching today's temperatures nor the rate of change.
Must read some stuff on Heinrich, Dansgar etc. Intruiging.