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On #PreciselyIncorrect quantification in ecological economics, a key criticism in [1] "is not that we always need high-precision in our economic analyses. Rather, that it is wrong to manipulate the uncertainties in information and conclusions in such a way that recommendations turn out to be far more certain than could possibly be justified scientifically"
A core point deals instead with quality: "uncertainties to be managed for the achievement of the best possible quality of information"
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[1] Saltelli, A., 2023. What is post-normal science? A personal encounter. Foundations of Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10699-023-09932-x
[2] Breznau, N., Rinke, E.M., Wuttke, A., et al., 2022. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (44), e2203150119+. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2203150119
#DOI #PostNormalScience #complexity #uncertainty #preregistration #reproducibility #PreciselyIncorrect
What is post-normal science? What are the reasons for, and consequences of, encountering it in one’s professional life? Here I share my own experience of readings, practices and discussions with the fathers, supporters and detractors of PNS. After a short description of PNS and of my own experience with it, I review some common criticism levelled to PNS from different authors and conclude reflecting on how PNS—difficult to explain and translate into formulae or checklists—provides its practitioners with useful keys to open relevant doors to understanding, and might be especially suited to face the present intersecting crises befalling the use of science for policy.
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[2] Liu, J., Dietz, T., Carpenter, S.R., et al., 2007. Coupled human and natural systems. AMBIO 36, 639–649. https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[639:CHANS]2.0.CO;2
[3] Liu, J., Dietz, T., Carpenter, S.R., et al., 2007. Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science 317, 1513–1516. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1144004
(Available free access versions:
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=9748014925464765351
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=4395469514804190369 )
#DOI #CoupledHumanAndNaturalSystems #DeepUncertainty #PreciselyIncorrect #complexity #SciencePolicyInterface
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"Coupled human and natural systems are experiencing unprecedented rapid changes and progressively tighter couplings at multiple scales"
They "challenge traditional #planning and #management assumptions and strategies for #NaturalResources and the #environment. By and large, most #policies in place today will not lead to #sustainable outcomes" [2]
"success or failure of many policies and management practices is based on their ability" to address complexity
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On the myth of an unreasonably precise #ReturnPeriod in #CoupledHumanAndNaturalSystems (CHANS) under the #ClimateChange and highly uncertain #TippingPoints "when earth systems suddenly tip into alternate semisteady states" [1]
"common #CognitiveBiases complicate the understanding of #probability [...] For instance, when lacking or considering historical data, people tend to base their estimations of probability on what they have recently experienced" [1]
Daniele de Rigo