Predicting Sea States

Transferring cargo between ships and landing aircraft on carriers requires predicting how the waves will behave for the next few minutes. That’s a notoriously difficult task for several reasons: rough seas can hide a ship radar’s view and the inherent nonlinearity of ocean waves means that they can occasionally coalesce unexpectedly large (“rogue“) waves, seemingly from nowhere.

A new study describes a technique for improving sea state predictions. In their model, the team first use multiple radar returns to average out gaps in the current wave state data, then feed that interpolated data into a prediction algorithm that includes nonlinearities up to the third-order. The results, they found, gave far better predictions than current techniques, some of which had errors 3 times as high. (Image credit: R. Ding; research credit: J. Yao et al.; via APS News)

#fluidDynamics #nonlinearDynamics #oceanWaves #physics #science

We discover that upon variation of an additional parameter, a complex system undergoes a change in the nature of the transition from continuous to abrupt, involving an intricate metamorphosis of the transition, published in Physical Review E by @APSphysics.

https://doi.org/10.1103/qn17-x37z
#Turbulentreactingflow #IITMadras #DynamicalSystems #CriticalTransitions #PhysicalReviewE #publication #Research #NonlinearDynamics #ComplexSystems #Metamorphosis

Excited to share our work in collaboration with @PIK_climate and National Physical Laboratory, published in Scientific Reports. We show that early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-06525-5
#Tipping #EarlyWarningSignals #SystemControl #ComplexSystems #NonlinearDynamics #IITMadras

Had a great time at NODYCON 2025 presenting our recent results on the metamorphosis of transitions to periodic oscillations.
Thanks to Walter Lacarbonara & Muhammad Hajj for a fantastic event full of science & energy! 🚀
Already looking forward to the next one!

#NODYCON #conference #Nonlineardynamics #stevens #springernature #earandel #cassyni #newyork #nyc

Sürekliliğin ötesinde – ekolojide ve uluslararası ilişkilerde geleceği ve mevcut varsayımları çizgisel olmayan, üstel, değişimler ve yapısal kopuşlar üzerinden tekrar düşünmeye davet eden bir araştırma

Beyond continuationism: climate change, economic growth, and the future of world (dis)order

Michael J. Albert. Cambridge Review of International Affairs 2022;35(6):868–887.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09557571.2020.1825334

#internationalrelations #nonlineardynamics #climateemergency #climatejustice #socialmovements

Rogue waves — rare waves much larger than any surrounding waves — have long been a part of sailors’ tales, but their existence has only been confirmed relatively recently. The exact mechanisms behind them are still a matter of debate. Laboratory experiments with mechanically-produced waves have created miniature rogue waves, but we still lack real-world observations of their formation.

To that end, researchers sailed the Southern Ocean, known for its rough waves, during austral winter and observed the state of the wind and waves nearby using stereo cameras. They found that young wind-driven waves tend to be steeper, and they move slower than the wind, as they’re still drawing energy from it. Older waves, in contrast, were shorter, less steep, and less likely have white caps from breaking. Overall, they found that strong winds could more easily drive young waves into the nonlinear growth that leads to rogue waves. (Image credit: S. Baisch; research credit: A. Toffoli et al.; via APS Physics)

https://fyfluiddynamics.com/2024/04/seeking-rogue-wave-origins/

#fluidDynamics #nonlinearDynamics #oceanWaves #physics #rogueWaves #science #wind

Photo by Silas Baisch on Unsplash

Download this photo by Silas Baisch on Unsplash

Book Review - Thinking in Systems

Review § This would have been a great book if I read it 30 years ago… I’m afraid it hasn’t aged that well. Still the ideas behind are important, in particular the importance of flows, delays, buffers and measuring quality Quotes § Location 175 So, what is a system? A system is a set of things—people, cells, molecules, or whatever—interconnected in such a way that they produce their own pattern of behavior over time.