The band that wrote this song is still rotting in a prison in #Belarus. #Lukashenka regime keeps imprisoning, torturing, and killing people over what they did during the 2020 protests and what they kept doing to sabotage #Putin's invasion of #Ukraine. Trump invited Lukashenka and Putin into his #InjusticeLeague #PeaceBoard.

These are not historic parallels. These are battles of the same war, a war #DictatorInternational has been waging on democracy since the second fall of the #RussianEmpire.

Russians love to speak of about the “expired” (просроченный) #Zelensky but… who’s saying that?

  • #Putin himself has been president illegally since at least 2012. He for a third term in office in violation of the Russian constitution, which was specially amended for this occasion to make it quasi-legal, after a largely falsified referendum.
  • #Lukashenka is even better as his 2020 election was achieved by massive and well-documented electoral fraud.

Both ‘elections’ were accompanied by mass protests, some of the arrested are still jailed in #Belarus. Both ‘leaders’ prefer not to mention this part anymore, even though back then they were very verbal about ‘fifth column’.

Zelensky at the same time was elected in elections observed by the OSCE, which raised no objections, and his current extended term is 100% in accordance with the martial law imposed in response to Russian invasion on #Ukraine and in compliance with the Constitution. Unlike Putin, Zelensky needed no ‘manual tweaks’ to remain in his post - it was “only” Russian invasion that cemented him there, so if Russians are so concerned they can always end the war and let Ukraine elect a new president.

Katsiaryna Shmatsina wrote excellent analysis of what #KeithKellogg's visit to #Belarus (that led to the release of #SiarheiTsikhanouski and several other #PoliticalPrisoners) does and doesn't change for the US and EU policy towards the #Lukashenka regime:

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/what-washington-wants-from-minsk

Tl;dr: not much. Lukashenka is still too dependent on Putin. Belarus is still too involved in Russia's war against Ukraine. Prisoner release is good optics for the US, but there's not much to be gained beyond that.

What Washington Wants from Minsk

The Lukashenka regime wants sanctions relief for freeing political prisoners. But what’s in it for the Trump administration? 

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@heidilifeldman The #Lukashenka regime kept calling the 1999 disappearance of a major opposition politician Viktar Hanchar a "political stunt" for decades. He and other disappeared #Belarusians were never found.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktar_Hanchar

Viktar Hanchar - Wikipedia

@MJ @TonyStark US is now the kind of country my parents handed down to me 30 years ago when #Belarus failed to oust #Lukashenka the first time.

And yes, arresting judges was a milestone there, too, right before disappearing journalists and politicians.

I just realized that this year will mark 10 years since I stopped talking to my parents, in large part because of, well, this crap. No regrets.

Paul Hansbury just gave a good short summary of what's to expect of the upcoming "election" of the dictator #Lukashenka in #Belarus on January 26.

https://www.paulhansbury.com/post/belarus-notes-9-ballots-and-bullets

Journalists covering international affairs should take notes: while some are willing to take this attempt at self-relegitimization at face value (and omit the 30 years of violence and fraud), Hansbury opens with a reminder that "most readers will already know that Belarusians are not really getting to choose their president."

BELARUS NOTES #9: BALLOTS AND BULLETS

Belarus's dictator hopes next weekend's election will allow him to re-legitimise his grasp on power. Little suggests that will happen.

The Minsk Pies
@ALoiteringFlaneur @benroyce Sadly, the target audience for this posturing is not just (or even not primarily) Belarusians. It is foreign leaders, including those in the West, who find it convenient to pretend that it is possible to pull #Lukashenka away from #Putin. This is a call for another round of negotiations over how many sanctions the democratic countries are going to lift in exchange for posturing and symbolic gestures.
@Blumine
Und #Orban, oder #Lukashenka... So sieht Diktatur in Europa aus. Und #vonDerLeyen , #Merz etc. klatschen Beifall. Widerwärtig!
Today #Lithuania referred the Situation in #Belarus to the ICC Prosecutor. Although 🇧🇾 is not an ICC State Party, 🇱🇹 alleges some elements of the #Lukashenka regime's crimes against humanity (deportation, persecution & other inhumane acts) occurred in 🇱🇹. https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-receipt-referral-republic-lithuania?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=mastodon
Statement of ICC Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan KC on receipt of a referral by the Republic of Lithuania

On 30 September 2024, the Republic of Lithuania submitted a referral to my Office exercising its prerogative, as a State Party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), under article 14(1) of the  Statute. In its referral, the Republic of Lithuania requests my Office to investigate alleged crimes against humanity committed in the Republic of Belarus, a non-ICC State party, stating that part of the elements of the alleged crimes was committed on the territory of Lithuania, an ICC State Party. Specifically, the referral alleges that “beginning in April 2020, and from at least 1 May 2020, partly ongoing to the present day, and continuing, crimes against humanity – including deportation, persecution and other inhumane acts – have been carried out against the civilian population of Belarus, at the behest of senior Belarusian political, law enforcement and military leaders, and that part of the element of these crimes was committed on the territory of Lithuania, bringing such crimes temporally, territorially, and materially (by subject-matter) within the jurisdiction of the Court”. As a result, the Government of Lithuania request my Office “to investigate all past, ongoing and future crimes within the Court’s jurisdiction, including as referred, as committed in the territory of the Republic of Belarus, and partly on the territory of Lithuania, since at least 1 May 2020”. In accordance with the Rome Statute, a State Party may refer to my Office a situation in which one or more crimes within the jurisdiction of the Court appear to have been committed, requesting the Office to investigate the situation for the purpose of determining whether one or more specific persons should be charged with the commission of such crimes. A State Party referral does not automatically lead to the opening of an investigation. I can confirm that my Office will conduct a preliminary examination to examine the request within the limits of the ICC jurisdiction, and to determine, based on statutory requirements, if there is a reasonable basis to proceed with the opening of an investigation. Any interested person or entity who wishes to submit information to the OTP on these or other alleged crimes committed under the ICC’s jurisdiction may use OTPLink, a secure platform to receive such submissions. For further details on "preliminary examinations" and "situations and cases" before the Court, click here, and here.

International Criminal Court