Manoel BittencourtChatting with Rafael Dix-Carneiro (Duke) about labor market responses to tariffs, gains from trade in developing countries, trade liberalization & crime, policy implications from trade liberalization & some more. #trade #globalization #inequality #crime #labormarkets https://heterogeneousagents.substack.com/p/chatting-with-rafael-dix-carneiro
Marcus SchulerOpenAI backer Vinod Khosla proposes eliminating federal income tax for Americans earning under $100K by equalizing capital gains rates with ordinary income. The venture capitalist cites growing worker anxiety about AI displacement, which doubled to 40% since 2024. Plan targets tax system where less than 20% of $116T in accumulated capital gains since 1954 appeared on returns. #TaxPolicy #AIPolicy #LaborMarkets https://www.implicator.ai/openai-backer-khosla-pushes-to-end-income-tax-for-125-million-americans/
Anthropic released a new method for tracking AI's actual job market impact, combining Claude usage data with theoretical capability assessments across 800 occupations. Programming jobs show 75% task exposure, but no measurable unemployment increase since ChatGPT's launch. Entry-level hiring for high-exposure roles down 14%.
OpenAI's Altman claims companies use "AI washing" to justify planned layoffs, while data shows under 1% of 2025 job cuts actually traced to AI. Despite the automation narrative, unemployment in AI-susceptible roles remains flat since ChatGPT's 2022 launch. The gap between layoff rhetoric and labor data continues to widen.
Dennis Alexis Valin DittrichWhile there is some "boardroom disillusionment" with #AI …
Companies have seen "micro-efficiencies" (faster emails, quicker coding), but these haven't scaled to "macro-gains," and the Cost of Implementation (energy, licensing, and talent) is currently outstripping the Value of Output.
https://archive.md/vs2B4
…Brynjolfsson is more optimistic.
The #productivity boost is coming, but it is currently masked by the massive intangible investments companies must make to reorganize their workflows. Companies are keeping expensive human staff while they figure out how to use AI, which artificially suppresses productivity per worker.
https://archive.md/CABjm
#gdp #LaborMarkets
The Work-from-home Wage Premium https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/wp2026-02.pdf
"… find that workers who work from home earn higher hourly wages than those who do not.
… premium is driven by selection on unobservable worker characteristics (which could include ability, negotiation skills or bargaining power). Indeed, WFH was more prevalent for workers who already had high hourly wages before the pandemic, and was not associated with higher post-pandemic wage growth.
… in a world with more widespread #WFH, differences in hourly #wages may significantly understate #inequality, as the best-paid workers are also more likely to receive the WFH amenity.
… changes in WFH policies (e.g., through widely debated RTO mandates) could have important implications for the allocation of talent and for aggregate productivity: firms offering WFH disproportionately attract more educated and experienced workers
… stringent #RTO mandates may induce the most productive employees to leave firms that do not offer WFH."
#LaborMarkets
"… find that workers who work from home earn higher hourly wages than those who do not.
… premium is driven by selection on unobservable worker characteristics (which could include ability, negotiation skills or bargaining power). Indeed, WFH was more prevalent for workers who already had high hourly wages before the pandemic, and was not associated with higher post-pandemic wage growth.
… in a world with more widespread #WFH, differences in hourly #wages may significantly understate #inequality, as the best-paid workers are also more likely to receive the WFH amenity.
… changes in WFH policies (e.g., through widely debated RTO mandates) could have important implications for the allocation of talent and for aggregate productivity: firms offering WFH disproportionately attract more educated and experienced workers
… stringent #RTO mandates may induce the most productive employees to leave firms that do not offer WFH."
#LaborMarkets
We’re Planning for the Wrong AI Job Disruption https://archive.ph/2026.02.04-151036/https://www.wsj.com/opinion/were-planning-for-the-wrong-ai-job-disruption-2264d219
"Many politicians and commentators assume that if #AI can perform some of a job’s tasks, the role will disappear.
But the distinction between task repricing—when technology can take over all or part of a task—and job destruction isn’t semantic, it is economic. When technology lowers the cost of performing specific tasks by lifting some of the load, firms reorganize production. Workers specialize differently.
… software has automated large portions of bookkeeping and tax preparation without eliminating accountants, who have moved up the value chain toward advisory, forensic and judgment-intensive work.
… A job that scores as 40% “exposed” to AI in these rankings doesn’t have a 40% chance of vanishing. It is more likely to be reorganized.
… Technology automates, accelerates or reduces the cost of specific tasks within a job, allowing employees to spend more time on higher-value activities. As a result, output expands and #wages often rise."
#LaborMarkets
"Many politicians and commentators assume that if #AI can perform some of a job’s tasks, the role will disappear.
But the distinction between task repricing—when technology can take over all or part of a task—and job destruction isn’t semantic, it is economic. When technology lowers the cost of performing specific tasks by lifting some of the load, firms reorganize production. Workers specialize differently.
… software has automated large portions of bookkeeping and tax preparation without eliminating accountants, who have moved up the value chain toward advisory, forensic and judgment-intensive work.
… A job that scores as 40% “exposed” to AI in these rankings doesn’t have a 40% chance of vanishing. It is more likely to be reorganized.
… Technology automates, accelerates or reduces the cost of specific tasks within a job, allowing employees to spend more time on higher-value activities. As a result, output expands and #wages often rise."
#LaborMarkets
Wage Expectations and Job Search https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:386&r=&r=eur
"While average misperceptions are relatively small, substantial shares of job seekers display pronounced optimism or pessimism.
… Treated job seekers who were initially strongly optimistic increase their search effort and find jobs more quickly. Conversely, initial pessimists narrow the geographic scope of their search in response to the treatment, which accelerates re-employment—consistent with mitigated spatial search frictions.
… accounting for job seekers’ subjective beliefs is essential when studying search behavior
… suggest that job seekers seem to jointly determine multiple dimensions of their search strategy—including their wage demands, search intensity, and geographic scope. Exogenous changes in one domain can spill over into others
… Both initially optimistic and initially pessimistic job seekers find employment more quickly when holding more accurate beliefs."
#LaborMarkets #jobtech #wageTransparency
"While average misperceptions are relatively small, substantial shares of job seekers display pronounced optimism or pessimism.
… Treated job seekers who were initially strongly optimistic increase their search effort and find jobs more quickly. Conversely, initial pessimists narrow the geographic scope of their search in response to the treatment, which accelerates re-employment—consistent with mitigated spatial search frictions.
… accounting for job seekers’ subjective beliefs is essential when studying search behavior
… suggest that job seekers seem to jointly determine multiple dimensions of their search strategy—including their wage demands, search intensity, and geographic scope. Exogenous changes in one domain can spill over into others
… Both initially optimistic and initially pessimistic job seekers find employment more quickly when holding more accurate beliefs."
#LaborMarkets #jobtech #wageTransparency
Measuring Labor Market Tightness: Data Update and New Web Feature https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/01/measuring-labor-market-tightness-data-update-and-new-web-feature/
"… Traditional tightness measures such as vacancies over unemployment (V/U) also do a relatively good job in predicting wage growth until about 2015, when V/U begins to falter. The steady deterioration in the forecasting performance of vacancy-based measures such as V/U and V/ES on its own aligns with earlier work finding that the relationship between vacancies and other labor market variables has shifted over time.
Our findings suggest that the HPW Index and the quits rate are the best predictors of wage growth in the next quarter. Going forward, the web feature https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/labor-market-tightness launched today will update both a quarterly and a monthly series of HPW in conjunction with the ECI, to track wage pressures in real time"
#LaborMarkets #wages
The Trust Equation: It’s Not Just Who You Hire, It’s How You Hire https://behavioralscientist.org/the-trust-equation-its-not-just-who-you-hire-its-how-you-hire/
"Talent represents the most valuable asset of any firm, and candidates evaluate employers as rigorously as vice versa. #AI threatens to further depersonalize human interactions. To thrive in an era that threatens to erode human interactions, organizations must create consistently valuable experiences.
The competitive advantage isn’t in fighting harder in the “war for talent” but in building systems that cultivate #trust, performance, and, with it, an employer brand at scale. Every organization claims to put people first. The ones that succeed are those whose processes prove it."
#LaborMarkets #jobtech #hiring
