Luc 
anlomedad#HungaTonga was on the top of my list of suspects for the bananas year 2023. #Jucker et al's preprint on modelling the effect on #weather was my go-to for months. It has been peer-reviewed and published by now 🔒 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-23-0437.1/JCLI-D-23-0437.1.xml
or : https://d197for5662m48.cloudfront.net/documents/publicationstatus/180012/preprint_pdf/ebd8969efba54570a5944dadba59168c.pdf
It just now occurred to me: their model comparison only flags *significant* changes over a planet without water injection into the #stratosphere. And what's more: in year1 after the eruption, which is 2023, only the jet stream showed significant changes. Not temperature. This realisation kinda proves to me that HungaTonga wasn't significant at all wrt temperature in 2023.
Wanting to double-check my realisation with the author on Twix, I found instead his tweet with his writeup in TheConversation💃 https://theconversation.com/tongas-volcanic-eruption-could-cause-unusual-weather-for-the-rest-of-the-decade-new-study-shows-231074
" This means that the incredibly high temperatures we have measured for about a year now cannot be attributed to the Hunga Tonga eruption." 💃
But like I suspected: the ultra-wet winter with damages in infrastructure, soil and crops in Western Europe was due to HungaTonga by way of its effect on the #jetstream.
And it will be repeated: "For the northern half of Australia, our model predicts colder and wetter than usual winters up to about 2029. For North America, it predicts warmer than usual winters, while for Scandinavia, it again predicts colder than usual winters."
... One more thing::::
Sadly, the #Arctic in year 3 to year 7 is modelled to warm by 0.5°C due to HungaTonga. Put that on top of the potentially permanent bananas heating in 2023 and 2024... then sea ice will shrink, albedo lost, fresh water dilute the AMOC, polar bears lose their cups.
And the temperature gradient between Arctic and equator will be less.
Which probably leads to stalling jetstream wave patterns. Stalling wave patterns spell heat and drought (and crazy omega blockings with heavy rain events). All of which makes crop loss likely in the bread baskets USA, Europe, Ukraine, Russia.
Like in 2018. But 5 years in a row...
OMG...fck
Long-term climate impacts of large stratospheric water vapor perturbations
Abstract The amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere after the eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) was unprecedented, and it is therefore unclear what it might mean for surface climate. We use chemistry climate model simulations to assess the long-term surface impacts of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) anomalies similar to those caused by HTHH, but neglect the relatively minor aerosol loading from the eruption. The simulations show that the SWV anomalies lead to strong and persistent warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses in boreal winter, and austral winter cooling over Australia, years after eruption, demonstrating that large SWV forcing can have surface impacts on a decadal timescale. We also emphasize that the surface response to SWV anomalies is more complex than simple warming due to greenhouse forcing and is influenced by factors such as regional circulation patterns and cloud feedbacks. Further research is needed to fully understand the multi-year effects of SWV anomalies and their relationship with climate phenomena like El Nino Southern Oscillation.
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