@CelloMomOnCars
Thank you for sharing!
I'm wondering how the involved mechanisms then work to cool Western and Northern Europe. That it is via changes in the atmospheric currents is clear because else, the African #monsoon #weather wouldn't be affected as well.
Additionally, it is the winter which cools so significantly in a partial #AMOC collapse. While summers still - yet maybe more pronounced in collapse? – get heat from Africa via the #jetstream .
And if it is the winters that cool so significantly: how does it come to pass? In other words: is this current winter a harbinger? (Altho this winter is meddled-with by #HungaTonga 's impact on the jetstream particularly over Western Europe, see #MartinJucker preprint 2023 "Long-term climate impact of large stratospheric water vapor perturbations": the figure on jetstream in 300hPa in this first winter after eruption)
The atmospheric changes might be like this: when the subpolar gyre still worked, it created a barrier that prevented winter jetstream from lapping up cold polar air and spit it out over Western Europe.
With a changed (ie, cooler?) #SubpolarGyre in a partial AMOC collapse, the jetstream is able to meander more over that region, or maybe, not meander more but meander at a changed location, so the lapping tongue no more occurs over West Russia but then over West and Northern Europe.
If this were already happening, how would we see it in data from weather stations? The #GHCN has long-running weather stations from Scandinavia and Russia. I'm going to look for changes in winter low temperatures there. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/17/greenland-losing-30m-tonnes-of-ice-an-hour-study-reveals