"The AI “bubble” looks to be approaching its endgame. The dramatic rise in AI capital expenditure by so-called hyperscalers of the technology and the stock concentration in US equities are classic peak bubble signals. But history shows that a bust triggered by this over-investment may hold the key to the positive long-run potential of AI.

AI stocks have exhibited bubble characteristics for a while. Share prices have skyrocketed, driving excessive index concentration. AI companies are doing deals between themselves, helping inflate their valuations. And they are buying each other’s products and using vendor financing to sustain growth.

Until recently, the missing ingredient was the rapid build-out of physical capital. This is now firmly in place, echoing the capex boom seen in the late-1990s bubble in telecommunications, media and technology stocks. That scaling of the internet and mobile telephony was central to sustaining “blue sky” earnings expectations and extreme valuations, but it also led to the TMT bust.

This followed the similar patterns from the introduction of nearly all general-purpose technologies — from railways, electricity, radio, semiconductors, to the internet. These bubbles didn’t end because the dream about the new technologies fell short; rather, the bubbles burst either due to regulation, increased competition, or the buyers of the products being unwilling, or unable, to sustain the demand. While the technology theme may be structural, all too often the end users are cyclical, putting the returns on investment in this excess capacity at risk from weakness in end-user cash flow."

https://www.ft.com/content/c7b9453e-f528-4fc3-9bbd-3dbd369041be

#AI #GenerativeAI #AICapex #AIBubble #AIHype