Jason Beets40% of votes have been counted in the Special Election Runoff in Georgia to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in the US House.
1/x
The Cook Political Report adjusted its US House ratings for six elections, five of which moved in favor of Democrats.
2/x
According to the NY Times, Trump won GA-14 in 2024 by 37%, and MTG won GA-14 in 2024 by 29%.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-georgia-us-house-14.html
3/x
Therefore, Democrat Shawn Harris would need a margin swing of at least 29% to win the election.
Typically in special elections in 2025 and 2026, Democrats can achieve a margin swing of about 10% to 15%.
4/x
The American public is upset at higher gas prices, triggered by the restriction of boat traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which was a consequence of Trump's decision to launch an offensive war against Iran, upon the urging of the Israeli government.
5/x
Trump has threatened to commit war crimes against Iran, going so far as to threaten to destroy Iranian civilization.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-civilization-threat.html
6/x
At the same time, Trump appears to find paying attention to the war he started to be a boring chore, preferring to instead focus on his plans for building a White House Ballroom, admiring a gold tractor, making up a story about Sharpie Pens, and wondering whether he could have taken Elvis Presley in a fight.
7/x
A sane country with a functional government would have removed Trump from office months ago, but that appears unlikely given the largely unwavering loyalty he receives from Republicans in the US Congress.
8/x
Elections, like the ones today in Wisconsin and Georgia, can be a metric of just how upset the public is about the outrageous conduct of the Republican Commander-in-Chief, even though Trump won't personally be on the ballot.
9/x
With 45% of votes counted, Republican Clay Fuller leads in GA-14 by 8%.
10/x
Polls close in Wisconsin in 37 minutes.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-wisconsin-supreme-court.html
11/x
The Associated Press has called the Special Election Runoff in GA-14 for Republican Clay Fuller.
12/x
With 57% of votes counted, Republican Clay Fuller leads by 12%.
13/x
With 78% of votes counted, Republican Clay Fuller leads by 12%.
14/x
The first results from the Wisconsin Supreme Court Election have been reported.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-wisconsin-supreme-court.html
15/x
Liberal candidates have preformed well in recent Wisconsin Supreme Court elections.
16/x
Janet Protasiewicz, a liberal candidate, won her election in 2023 by 11%.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2024/10/my-2023-political-donations.html
17/x
Susan Crawford, a liberal candidate, won her election in 2025 by 10.1%.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/04/01/us/elections/results-wisconsin.html
18/x
Wisconsin Supreme Court elections are technically non-partisan, but in practice one candidate always ends up ideologically aligned with Democrats, and one candidate always ends up ideologically aligned with Republicans.
19/x
LIVE: Kornacki Cam: Watch Steve analyze Georgia runoff and Wisconsin Supreme Court election results
Wisconsin is a perennial swing state.
In each of the three most recent presidential elections, Wisconsin was decided by less than 1%.
Wisconsin also voted for the winner each time Trump has been on the ballot.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2025/02/democratic-victory-fund.html
21/x
In 2024, Trump won Wisconsin by 0.86%.
In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by 0.63%.
In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by 0.77%.
22/x
The Democratic Victory Fund raised $2.50 for liberal candidate Susan Crawford, who went on to win her April 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election by 10.1%.
23/x
Susan Crawford was included among the candidates in the fund when it received its first donation on Feb. 11, 2025.
The Democratic Victory Fund did not receive its second donation until Aug. 5, 2025.
24/x
NBC News has called the Wisconsin Supreme Court election for liberal candidate Chris Taylor.
The Associated Press has not yet called the race.
25/x
Let's check back on Georgia.
With 93% of votes counted in GA-14, Republican Clay Fuller leads by 14%.
26/x
The New York Times website has called the Wisconsin Supreme Court election for liberal candidate Chris Taylor.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-wisconsin-supreme-court.html
27/x
With 48% of votes counted,
Chris Taylor (D endorsed): 60.8%
Maria Lazar (R endorsed): 39.1%
Taylor leads by 21.7%
28/x
The vote counts are coming in very quickly in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.
29/x
A screenshot of a list of upcoming elections that appeared on Steve Kornacki's livestream of tonight's election results.
The next election listed is for the New Jersey special election in the NJ-11 congressional district to replace Mikie Sherrill in the US House on Thursday, April 16.
30/x
In the Wisconsin Supreme Court Election:
With more than 95% of votes counted,
Chris Taylor (D endorsed): 59.6%
Maria Lazar (R endorsed): 40.4%
Taylor leads by 19.2%
31/x
Now that we have enough of the votes counted, let's examine the margin swings.
33/x
MTG (R) won GA-14 in 2024 by 29%
Fuller (R) won GA-14 in 2026 by 12%
Therefore, the margin swung in favor of Democrats by 17%.
34/x
A lot of people calculate margin swings by comparing the presidential result in a district to the special election result.
To me, that seems a bit like comparing apples to oranges, as people don't always vote the same way in presidential elections as they do in down ballot races.
35/x
With that disclaimer in mind, let's do it anyway.
Trump (R) won GA-14 in 2024 by 37%.
Fuller (R) won GA-14 in 2026 by 12%.
Using the presidential result as the baseline produces a margin swing of 25% in favor of Democrats.
36/x
Now let's calculate the margin swing for the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.
37/x
Liberal Candidate Chris Taylor currently leads by 20.3%.
In 2025, liberal candidate Susan Crawford won by 10.1%.
Therefore, the margin swung in favor of the liberal candidate by 10.2%
38/x
Comparing a presidential result to an April State Supreme Court election result seems a bit strange, but let's do it anyway.
39/x
Trump (R) won Wisconsin in 2024 by 0.9%.
Liberal candidate Chris Taylor leads her State Supreme Court election in Wisconsin by 20.3%.
The margin swing, compared to the most recent presidential election, is 21.2% in favor of the Democrats.
40/x
Because Republicans in Congress refuse to stand up to President Trump, Democrats have the opportunity to win elections that would normally be easy wins for Republicans.
If you would like to help Democrats win as many races in 2026 as possible, you can donate to the Democratic Victory Fund.
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/democraticvictoryfund
41/x
#Politics #USPol #Democrats #US #USA #Congress #Senate #Governor #Legislature
I explored how well Democrats might perform in the US House in 2026 by examining previous elections where Democrats won control of the US House.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2026/03/midterm-math-house-edition.html
42/x
