Jason Beets40% of votes have been counted in the Special Election Runoff in Georgia to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in the US House.
1/x
The Cook Political Report adjusted its US House ratings for six elections, five of which moved in favor of Democrats.
2/x
According to the NY Times, Trump won GA-14 in 2024 by 37%, and MTG won GA-14 in 2024 by 29%.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-georgia-us-house-14.html
3/x
Therefore, Democrat Shawn Harris would need a margin swing of at least 29% to win the election.
Typically in special elections in 2025 and 2026, Democrats can achieve a margin swing of about 10% to 15%.
4/x
The American public is upset at higher gas prices, triggered by the restriction of boat traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which was a consequence of Trump's decision to launch an offensive war against Iran, upon the urging of the Israeli government.
5/x
Trump has threatened to commit war crimes against Iran, going so far as to threaten to destroy Iranian civilization.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-civilization-threat.html
6/x
At the same time, Trump appears to find paying attention to the war he started to be a boring chore, preferring to instead focus on his plans for building a White House Ballroom, admiring a gold tractor, making up a story about Sharpie Pens, and wondering whether he could have taken Elvis Presley in a fight.
7/x
A sane country with a functional government would have removed Trump from office months ago, but that appears unlikely given the largely unwavering loyalty he receives from Republicans in the US Congress.
8/x
Elections, like the ones today in Wisconsin and Georgia, can be a metric of just how upset the public is about the outrageous conduct of the Republican Commander-in-Chief, even though Trump won't personally be on the ballot.
9/x
With 45% of votes counted, Republican Clay Fuller leads in GA-14 by 8%.
10/x
Polls close in Wisconsin in 37 minutes.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-wisconsin-supreme-court.html
11/x
The Associated Press has called the Special Election Runoff in GA-14 for Republican Clay Fuller.
12/x
With 57% of votes counted, Republican Clay Fuller leads by 12%.
13/x
With 78% of votes counted, Republican Clay Fuller leads by 12%.
14/x
The first results from the Wisconsin Supreme Court Election have been reported.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-wisconsin-supreme-court.html
15/x
Liberal candidates have preformed well in recent Wisconsin Supreme Court elections.
16/x
Janet Protasiewicz, a liberal candidate, won her election in 2023 by 11%.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2024/10/my-2023-political-donations.html
17/x
Susan Crawford, a liberal candidate, won her election in 2025 by 10.1%.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/04/01/us/elections/results-wisconsin.html
18/x
Wisconsin Supreme Court elections are technically non-partisan, but in practice one candidate always ends up ideologically aligned with Democrats, and one candidate always ends up ideologically aligned with Republicans.
19/x
LIVE: Kornacki Cam: Watch Steve analyze Georgia runoff and Wisconsin Supreme Court election results
Wisconsin is a perennial swing state.
In each of the three most recent presidential elections, Wisconsin was decided by less than 1%.
Wisconsin also voted for the winner each time Trump has been on the ballot.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2025/02/democratic-victory-fund.html
21/x
In 2024, Trump won Wisconsin by 0.86%.
In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by 0.63%.
In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by 0.77%.
22/x
The Democratic Victory Fund raised $2.50 for liberal candidate Susan Crawford, who went on to win her April 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court election by 10.1%.
23/x
Susan Crawford was included among the candidates in the fund when it received its first donation on Feb. 11, 2025.
The Democratic Victory Fund did not receive its second donation until Aug. 5, 2025.
24/x
NBC News has called the Wisconsin Supreme Court election for liberal candidate Chris Taylor.
The Associated Press has not yet called the race.
25/x
Let's check back on Georgia.
With 93% of votes counted in GA-14, Republican Clay Fuller leads by 14%.
26/x