Lauren WeinsteinI believe that there is approaching a 50% chance that Trump will either deploy or attempt to deploy a nuclear weapon (probably tactical weapon, perhaps a strategic weapon) in the ongoing conflict. Hegseth has fired most of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who might have fought against such a move. Trump is erratic, deranged, likely deeply senile and mentally ill, and surrounded by self-serving sycophants. This is probably the most dangerous time for the U.S., and the world, since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
AI6YR Ben
David J. Atkinson
random thoughtsUnfortunately the nutters in the USA, Russia, and France have exploded enough open-air nukes to prove this won't happen.
@meltedcheese @lauren Well, runaway climate change is most certainly the biggest risk of our time (probably well on its way now, or will be since we're not doing anything about it...), but there is definitely the risk of nuclear war always because we have unbalanced people with their fingers on the trigger.
@ai6yr @lauren When it comes to nukes, what does scare me (generally, not personal mortal threat) is the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Those are dispersed worldwide and I believe US generals have the power to use them in urgent battlefield situations if pre approval is not feasible. Same on the Russian side. There are also hundreds of missing “backpack” nukes gone missing from the fall of the Soviet Union. Not all were recovered. They probably don’t work but the fissile material is still there. I think the chance today of full nuclear thermonuclear exchange at civilization-destroying scale is not so large, but there is a chance that a tactical nuclear exchange could trigger it. And, as you point out, we have some crazy people with the authority of command so anything is possible. Still, climate disaster is certain and it will change everything.
Rich Stein (he/him)@meltedcheese @ai6yr @lauren
Now is a good time to remind our armed service men and women that they do not have to obey illegal orders:
- Stand up for American laws and values.
- Uphold the oath you swore to the Constitution.
- Refuse illegal orders.
- Thank you for your service.
https://youtube.com/shorts/Fk9Gh3qwW4I
#patriotism #Constitution
We want to speak directly to members of the Military and the Intelligence Community...
Extra_Special_Carbon@lauren He’s literally playing with the military like a toy army. Of course he will deploy nukes.
oracle bonz@lauren Given their Crusader rhetoric and the appeal to God and even Allah, I think they'll try to rationalize nukes as a path to Armageddon. Lindsey Graham already suggested this.
Maddad ☑️
Gray Hairs@lauren
Need bags packed and ready to flee major cities by Tuesday?
Need bags packed and ready to flee major cities by Tuesday?
Legit_Spaghetti@Legit_Spaghetti @lauren
Yes, I think Robert Evans had the same conclusion on Behind the Bastards, but I guess I was thinking we might have a chance in the forests.
Yes, I think Robert Evans had the same conclusion on Behind the Bastards, but I guess I was thinking we might have a chance in the forests.
peachfrontThere might not be anywhere left.
Cleethorpes Info Bot 
oh there's a few countries left but their welcome will be gone if the value of the dollar is shattered (Ecuador, Bolivia, Argentina spring to mind)
Ecuador's already onto the USian fleeing health care costs, you have to get your own health insurance, not sure about the other two, they may be privatizing health insurance anyway which means galloping costs won't be far behind?)
Mike Fraser@lauren His personality is also deeply susceptible to an escalation spiral. As you said with no descenting voices in his sphere we're in terrible danger.
sadly i agree
David Grieve@lauren
It's either this or 'boots on the ground' that is the cause of all the senior level command resignations. The only question is, how far down the list will he need to go before he finds a general who is bat shit enough to carry out his orders?
It's either this or 'boots on the ground' that is the cause of all the senior level command resignations. The only question is, how far down the list will he need to go before he finds a general who is bat shit enough to carry out his orders?
@davidgrieve @lauren You think boots on the ground is the cause of resognations, and not nuclear weapons? I’m not so certain.
@Extra_Special_Carbon @lauren
I'm saying it could be either (or both). We will find out in time what has been going on behind the scenes. They will be unpacking everything the entire den of thieves have been doing for decades.
I'm saying it could be either (or both). We will find out in time what has been going on behind the scenes. They will be unpacking everything the entire den of thieves have been doing for decades.
slash@lauren I once worked with someone who served in the USAF missile corps, and who was one of the people responsible for turning the keys in the silos. He said the "reliability tests" were taking a real toll on his mental state, not knowing if he was actually launching the end of the world or not. IIRC, reliability scores were something like 20%.
And in past instances, where we were a button-press away from Armageddon, the humans always refused. My bet is on decent people.
Wulfy—Speaker to the machinesThe nuke, if deployed, won't be a strategic MIRV.
Most likely a nuclear tomahawk or gravity bomb.
Those are way easier to deploy.
Kim@lauren During the 1991/2003 gulf wars, the US used depleted uranium munitions, which have a lasting radioactive impact, in order to stop a state from possessing (nuclear and chemical) WMDs, which we later discovered didn't actually exist. Sites in southern Iraq and Kuwait that were battlegrounds in 1991 still remain contaminated and will remain so essentially forever. So the US has form.
Depleted #uranium is nasty stuff, but not that nasty. It's what left over after you separate the radioactive stuff.
@Stinson_108 @kim_balfour @lauren Depleted Uranium is still radioactive, its just not fissile. U238 is a radioactive isotope.
@Stinson_108 @kim_balfour @lauren Every isotope of every element with an atomic number over 82 is radioactive.
@Extra_Special_Carbon @kim_balfour @lauren
Dosis sola facit venenum.
As are bananas. Alpha particles, the majority product of uranium-238, is stopped by paper or skin. Don't breathe the dust. Beta particles and gamma radiation from depleted uranium are half of mined metal.
@Stinson_108 @kim_balfour @lauren Sure, it’s mostly safe until it starts contaminating ground water, food, and the air. How many shells are there, and are they contained well? I’ll bet they ard lying all over the place in bins or just on the ground, where it rains.
Is it a lot? I don’t know. If these shells aren’t contained, what is their fate in the environment? The uranium will certainlynoxidize and dissolve. How much uranium is too much?
David. Beware of imitators.@lauren In the news I heard an Iranian official saying they had a far ranging nuclear threat. Dirty bombs is my guess. Instead of a100lbs of boom, send 95 with 5lbs of nuclear material from the refining plants. If the, Allies, use nukes this will escalate.
JWcph, Radicalized By Decency@lauren - especially considering that even during the cold war & the Cuban crisis, everyone involved was actively trying to avoid a war, whereas the braindead lunatics currently running the US thinks war makes them look manly & tuff...
Not exactly - USA was depth-charging Soviet subs armed with nuclear weapons, and the captain of the said sub was about to start a nuclear war by firing a nuclear tipped torpedo back. It took one of the three responsible offices opposing it and convincing the others (captain and the poitical officer).
I truly wish we never get into this state of things ever again.
@hittitezombie @lauren So even there, three out of four people were on team "not war" - I think my point still stands.
Stadtkind
Steven Reed@lauren
I'd sort of been assuming it would be Israel crossing that Rubicon first, perhaps when they run out of interceptors, but either seems frighteningly plausible :(
I'd sort of been assuming it would be Israel crossing that Rubicon first, perhaps when they run out of interceptors, but either seems frighteningly plausible :(
Marion 🦋☀️@lauren
My thoughts exactly. I posted the same thoughts just yesterday. I don't know whether I should feel relieved or alarmed that I'm not the only one thinking along those lines.
I've never prayed so hard to be wrong.
And I never felt so cold in my entire life (and I grew up during the cold war - sorry, no pun intended).
My thoughts exactly. I posted the same thoughts just yesterday. I don't know whether I should feel relieved or alarmed that I'm not the only one thinking along those lines.
I've never prayed so hard to be wrong.
And I never felt so cold in my entire life (and I grew up during the cold war - sorry, no pun intended).
Janne Pekkala@lauren agree with this statement,except I think 50% has long gone (already before the conflict they were ready for open air testing, probably to sell tickets to the biggest mushroom ever show). So they are fine to use nukes. Therefore I think that percentage is 98 at the moment and biggest stop is hidden internal resistance (sadly not revolution), which they work to fix at the moment (otherwise we would probably already had big beautiful glowing end for this war).
So, it is not if, it is when and I’m more interested the global (non usa) response for that, when it happens. As it is not Trump who decides what will follow, it is Xi (and Putin at some level). USA, however is a dead man walking. In global future, there is no place for it. In the best case there will soon be bunch of new banana republics in north america, in worst case, there is no future anywhere on earth (few living souls running short of supplies in space).
Steve Hill 🏴🇪🇺@lauren which probably justifies Iran's desire to have their own nukes... Totally insane.
Serf de Web@lauren
I agree, but I don't see a nuclear cascade happening. Putin would just laugh his ass off.
I agree, but I don't see a nuclear cascade happening. Putin would just laugh his ass off.
@Stinson_108 @lauren
I'm just looking at how many countries have how many bombs, and how suicidal are they that they would retaliate against the US arsenal if Iran is bombed? Only Putin comes to mind, and I don't think he's crazy, just inhumane.
I'm just looking at how many countries have how many bombs, and how suicidal are they that they would retaliate against the US arsenal if Iran is bombed? Only Putin comes to mind, and I don't think he's crazy, just inhumane.
One scenario is that Iran unloads a fleet of conventional missiles on Tel Aviv. Netanyahu decides one on Tehran will stop all that. Five silos open up. Trump goes crazy. SecDef and his Russian counterpart are drunk. The U.S. opens its doors. At the first launch signature, Russia launches on warning against Israel and Ukraine. Why not? The US follows. Within a few minutes, the East-West confrontation starts. Communications fail. Submarines finish the job.
@Stinson_108 @lauren
Yes, Trump is stupid, and Netanyahu will do anything to stay in power. But Putin is not. In your scenario, he launches because the US did, not on him, not on anyone he really cares about, just why not. If he wants to take Ukraine, he's not going to make it radioactive just because why not. That would be stupid.I could see him possibly launching on Ukraine to impress domestically, if there were a serious coup attempt against him, but not just why not.
Yes, Trump is stupid, and Netanyahu will do anything to stay in power. But Putin is not. In your scenario, he launches because the US did, not on him, not on anyone he really cares about, just why not. If he wants to take Ukraine, he's not going to make it radioactive just because why not. That would be stupid.I could see him possibly launching on Ukraine to impress domestically, if there were a serious coup attempt against him, but not just why not.
In my spitball model, no one is quite rational. But what rational person would choose to end life as we know it?
It's rational to threaten retaliation. It is also rational not to retaliate in the moment . Life may continue.
Putin is very much in a weak position. The Russian economy is weaker than generally assumed. Ukraine, faced with an existential threat, is very effective. Putin, like Trump, could do something very stupid.
Anne Hulbert
Mick 🇨🇦
CartyBoston@lauren I hope American military leaders know - and I suspect they do - how vulnerable they are to Dems convicting them of war crimes in a couple of years.
QuasitAre you kidding? The Democrats would do what they always do, close their eyes as tightly as they can and chant "Look forward, not back!".
It took both parties to get us here. They are both owned by the same oligarch donors. The Democrats as saviors from fascism is a convenient fiction, nothing more. In the end they are just the blue fascists who work hand in hand with the red fascists. Or have you forgotten that the Democrats made sure that NOBODY was investigated for torture and war crimes last time? Much less prosecuted?
Of course you do.
ohirI am not so sure it is Agent Orange who is trying to deploy nukes. As far as I remember he has had ingrained deep fear off the nuclear scare times. Such a priming usually stays so deep and so strong that can kick in even in last stages of the Alzheimer disease.
After some hours of pondering on it I doubt DJT does even know what his puppeters are about to do.
$0.02
@meltedcheese @jannepekkala @jwcph
WeaselIt seems inevitable that Trump will attempt to deploy a nuclear weapon in Iran, because Trump simply cannot stand to lose, and he has stupidly put himself into a position that he cannot win using only conventional weapons. At that point hopefully someone will have the balls to remove the madman from office before his orders are carried out.