Lauren Weinstein1d ago
I believe that there is approaching a 50% chance that Trump will either deploy or attempt to deploy a nuclear weapon (probably tactical weapon, perhaps a strategic weapon) in the ongoing conflict. Hegseth has fired most of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who might have fought against such a move. Trump is erratic, deranged, likely deeply senile and mentally ill, and surrounded by self-serving sycophants. This is probably the most dangerous time for the U.S., and the world, since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Show threadSerf de Web1d ago
@lauren
I agree, but I don't see a nuclear cascade happening. Putin would just laugh his ass off.
Show threadRobert H1d ago

@serfdeweb @lauren

What started as a #Gaza war now includes what, ten percent of the countries of the world. Don't discount a #nuclear cascade.

Show threadSerf de Web23h ago
@Stinson_108 @lauren
I'm just looking at how many countries have how many bombs, and how suicidal are they that they would retaliate against the US arsenal if Iran is bombed? Only Putin comes to mind, and I don't think he's crazy, just inhumane.
Show threadRobert H12h ago

@serfdeweb @lauren

One scenario is that Iran unloads a fleet of conventional missiles on Tel Aviv. Netanyahu decides one on Tehran will stop all that. Five silos open up. Trump goes crazy. SecDef and his Russian counterpart are drunk. The U.S. opens its doors. At the first launch signature, Russia launches on warning against Israel and Ukraine. Why not? The US follows. Within a few minutes, the East-West confrontation starts. Communications fail. Submarines finish the job.

Show threadSerf de Web8h ago
@Stinson_108 @lauren
Yes, Trump is stupid, and Netanyahu will do anything to stay in power. But Putin is not. In your scenario, he launches because the US did, not on him, not on anyone he really cares about, just why not. If he wants to take Ukraine, he's not going to make it radioactive just because why not. That would be stupid.I could see him possibly launching on Ukraine to impress domestically, if there were a serious coup attempt against him, but not just why not.
Show threadRobert H

@serfdeweb @lauren

In my spitball model, no one is quite rational. But what rational person would choose to end life as we know it?

It's rational to threaten retaliation. It is also rational not to retaliate in the moment . Life may continue.

Putin is very much in a weak position. The Russian economy is weaker than generally assumed. Ukraine, faced with an existential threat, is very effective. Putin, like Trump, could do something very stupid.

11:54amWeb
Show threadSerf de Web24m ago
@Stinson_108 @lauren
I agree it's a matter of degree. But Trump is a drooling idiot who can't make up his mind from one minute to the next. He could easily use nukes. Putin may have wasted a strategic advantage in not invading Ukraine again during the 1st Trump admin, but he's not reacting here, nor making rash decisions. Russia is in a weak position economically, but Putin was preparing for sanctions for years before invading again.This is not a guy who destroys the entire world for why not.