I believe that there is approaching a 50% chance that Trump will either deploy or attempt to deploy a nuclear weapon (probably tactical weapon, perhaps a strategic weapon) in the ongoing conflict. Hegseth has fired most of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who might have fought against such a move. Trump is erratic, deranged, likely deeply senile and mentally ill, and surrounded by self-serving sycophants. This is probably the most dangerous time for the U.S., and the world, since the Cuban Missile Crisis.

@lauren I once worked with someone who served in the USAF missile corps, and who was one of the people responsible for turning the keys in the silos. He said the "reliability tests" were taking a real toll on his mental state, not knowing if he was actually launching the end of the world or not. IIRC, reliability scores were something like 20%.

And in past instances, where we were a button-press away from Armageddon, the humans always refused. My bet is on decent people.

@lauren @agreeable_landfall

The nuke, if deployed, won't be a strategic MIRV.

Most likely a nuclear tomahawk or gravity bomb.

Those are way easier to deploy.