Charlie Stross

RE: https://masto.ai/@WellsiteGeo/116295938819935650

By targeting the chief, AT BEST Israel just promoted someone they don't know into the dead man's shoes—someone who knows he's in a fight for survival.

At worst? The Iranian defenses will keep running on rails with nobody in a position to hit the "stop" button.

Decapitation strikes are a TERRIBLE strategy—they leave no way for your adversary to de-escalate.

Mar 26 at 2:42pmWeb
Show threadGurre Vildskägg3d ago
@cstross
As has been the Israeli strategy vs Hamas: keep killing anyone who can negotiate.
As if people wouldn't notice.
Show threadSeiðr3d ago
@Gurre @cstross The israeli plan is pretty clearly to try for collapse of… every other country in the region, doing it under the umbrella of the USA, and that's more or less like gambling on somebody else's money. You may empty their pockets, but eventually it'll be your legs somebody'll break.
Show threadGurre Vildskägg3d ago

@Illuminatus @cstross
They are clearly going after the lands of countries that won't be able to actually fight back.
Not only snubbing the internationally recognized "1967" borders, but now looking to take southern Lebanon as well.
So far though: no moves at Egypt, Saudi, or Jordan. For they would be a very different ball game than Palestine & Lebanon.

Which leaves Syria. another hornets nest Netanyahu and the whole far-right regime in Israel might go for messing up even more.

Show threadSeiðr3d ago
@Gurre @cstross The issue with the far right arseholes with territorial aspirations is that they eventually give in to the belicist bullshit, but also have their fash purity culture generating ever reducing definitions of who's a "true Scotsman". Both things combined are fatal to the continued existence of their political entities, but it won't be me who complains.
Show threadSeiðr3d ago
@Gurre @cstross Oh, BTW, there is this about personalist vs. institutional regimes in ACOUP (linked, very appropriately, in the same last entry about the Iran war). https://acoup.blog/2026/03/06/fireside-friday-march-6-2026/
Fireside Friday, March 6, 2026

Hey everyone, we have a Fireside this week and then next week we’ll get back to our somewhat silly break discussing the mechanics of warfare in Dune. But I did want to stop to chatter a bit a…

A Collection of Unmitigated Pedantry
Show threadCharlie Stross3d ago
@Illuminatus @Gurre By this analysis, Iran has an institutionalist regime *even if* it has a "supreme leader". Which is *very* bad news for Israeli and US attempts to assassinate their way to a solution.
Show threadSeiðr3d ago
@cstross @Gurre Exactly the point of the Pedant. The US and Israel are in for a world of pain if they believe decapitation strikes would do anything else than "adamantise" the resolve of the regime to resist, respond and drag them into the mud.
Show threadSeiðr3d ago
@cstross @Gurre The worst nightmare I can conceive of that situation is a lot of commanders of the IRGC having envelopes with instructions to operate under the principle of inflicting the maximum possible damage to the enemy in the absence of orders from the top and continue the fight to the bitter end with whatever resources are at hand.
Show threadDarwin Woodka3d ago

@Gurre @Illuminatus @cstross

The Saudis seem fine with all this nonsense. MBS has his deal with Jared, so I assume he's in on the game.

Show threadSeiðr3d ago
@darwinwoodka MbS got his own Vietnam in Yemen, though now everybody is doing as if nothing had happened, just as they are doing like 'the Line' was any viable project and not a scam. The Saud family is a nest of scorpions and I hope some day another heir presumptive does to him what he did to others. @Gurre @cstross
Show threadDressToKILT3d ago
@Gurre @Illuminatus @cstross they just need living space!
Show threadDressToKILT3d ago
@Gurre @cstross that's the point though. If you kill everyone who could negotiate, you can endlessly claim to want to negotiate but can't because the other side is "unwilling."
Show threadD3d ago
@cstross It's only a terrible strategy if your goal isn't to make it impossible for your adversary to de-escalate.
Show thread‘Tad’ Sander 🍉🌻3d ago
@cstross Arguably, this is exactly what Israel wants. No de-escalation, just a relentless push to create a failed state? Seems plausible to me.
Show threadFrank Bennett 🇯🇵3d ago
@cstross At war's end, MacArthur was at pains to shield the Showa Emperor for a reason.
Show threadSharp Cheddar Goblin3d ago
@cstross Israel doesn't want de-escalation. They want complete regional dominance and genocide. They learned well from Nazi Germany.
Show threadDarwin Woodka3d ago

@SharpCheddarGoblin @cstross

Yup, Israel has become what they once abhorred

Show threadJer3d ago

@cstross a terrible strategy if you want de-escalation. But if you want escalation- or even just keep the war moving along - it's a strategy that will work for that

I'm fairly certain that Israel wants all out war with Iran at this point, not a return to the status quo ante. Netanyahu has been wanting an all out war against Iran and its proxies for decades and finally has a US pres and SecDef that were dumb enough he could convince them to go along edt: and a secdef believer in the Rapture

Show threadD3d ago
@Jer @cstross Israel seems to be mostly interested in ensuring that America is in all-out war with Iran so that they have cover to annex and commit genocide in Lebanon while eyes are elsewhere.. but still, de-escalation doesn't help them with that.
Show threadJer3d ago
@cstross edited bc I feel like Hegseths bring back Jesus religious beliefs that require Amageddon to happen in the ME are a good chunk of why this is happening at all. A different less religiously belligerent secdef and we wouldn't be doing this
Show threadTraumkämpfer3d ago

@cstross They are a great way to create martyrs however. And whoever follows is usually more radical because they will be picked for their plans of retaliation.

@WellsiteGeo

Show threadDarwin Woodka3d ago

@cstross

Bibi and Trump don't give a shit about negotiating. They want to prove they are Big Men and stay out of prison for their crimes.

Show threadBashStKid3d ago

@cstross They don’t want even the risk of de-escalation. Just continuous destruction from behind our shield until the country is a ruin for decades.

This is why Trump’s babbling is irrelevant, Israel will carry on murdering until they run out of our weapons or our shielding them.

Show threadlord pthenq13d ago
@cstross
It is not that bad 
Show threadZandy3d ago
@cstross Is this a symptom of the politicians involved believing in the great man theory of history rather than trusting competent military strategists or foreign policy experts?
Show threadCharlie Stross3d ago
@iskandarv I'm pretty sure it's a symptom of Israel (actually, Netanyahu) wanting a Forever War. Iran surrendering would defeat the object of the exercise.
Show threadRaven Onthill3d ago

@cstross Netanyahu and MbS motto: let's you and him fight.

Send Netanyahu to the Hague!

Show threadWilhelm Gere2d ago
@cstross Book to that effect. Invading Space Aliens target and take out most world leaders. End result, nothing, except wasting a perfectly good missile on a soft target.