Charlie Stross4d ago

RE: https://masto.ai/@WellsiteGeo/116295938819935650

By targeting the chief, AT BEST Israel just promoted someone they don't know into the dead man's shoes—someone who knows he's in a fight for survival.

At worst? The Iranian defenses will keep running on rails with nobody in a position to hit the "stop" button.

Decapitation strikes are a TERRIBLE strategy—they leave no way for your adversary to de-escalate.

Show threadGurre Vildskägg4d ago
@cstross
As has been the Israeli strategy vs Hamas: keep killing anyone who can negotiate.
As if people wouldn't notice.
Show threadSeiðr4d ago
@Gurre @cstross The israeli plan is pretty clearly to try for collapse of… every other country in the region, doing it under the umbrella of the USA, and that's more or less like gambling on somebody else's money. You may empty their pockets, but eventually it'll be your legs somebody'll break.
Show threadGurre Vildskägg4d ago

@Illuminatus @cstross
They are clearly going after the lands of countries that won't be able to actually fight back.
Not only snubbing the internationally recognized "1967" borders, but now looking to take southern Lebanon as well.
So far though: no moves at Egypt, Saudi, or Jordan. For they would be a very different ball game than Palestine & Lebanon.

Which leaves Syria. another hornets nest Netanyahu and the whole far-right regime in Israel might go for messing up even more.

Show threadDarwin Woodka

@Gurre @Illuminatus @cstross

The Saudis seem fine with all this nonsense. MBS has his deal with Jared, so I assume he's in on the game.

Mar 26 at 3:23pmWeb
Show threadSeiðr4d ago
@darwinwoodka MbS got his own Vietnam in Yemen, though now everybody is doing as if nothing had happened, just as they are doing like 'the Line' was any viable project and not a scam. The Saud family is a nest of scorpions and I hope some day another heir presumptive does to him what he did to others. @Gurre @cstross