Charlie Stross4d ago

RE: https://masto.ai/@WellsiteGeo/116295938819935650

By targeting the chief, AT BEST Israel just promoted someone they don't know into the dead man's shoes—someone who knows he's in a fight for survival.

At worst? The Iranian defenses will keep running on rails with nobody in a position to hit the "stop" button.

Decapitation strikes are a TERRIBLE strategy—they leave no way for your adversary to de-escalate.

Show threadGurre Vildskägg4d ago
@cstross
As has been the Israeli strategy vs Hamas: keep killing anyone who can negotiate.
As if people wouldn't notice.
Show threadSeiðr4d ago
@Gurre @cstross The israeli plan is pretty clearly to try for collapse of… every other country in the region, doing it under the umbrella of the USA, and that's more or less like gambling on somebody else's money. You may empty their pockets, but eventually it'll be your legs somebody'll break.
Show threadGurre Vildskägg4d ago

@Illuminatus @cstross
They are clearly going after the lands of countries that won't be able to actually fight back.
Not only snubbing the internationally recognized "1967" borders, but now looking to take southern Lebanon as well.
So far though: no moves at Egypt, Saudi, or Jordan. For they would be a very different ball game than Palestine & Lebanon.

Which leaves Syria. another hornets nest Netanyahu and the whole far-right regime in Israel might go for messing up even more.

Show threadSeiðr4d ago
@Gurre @cstross The issue with the far right arseholes with territorial aspirations is that they eventually give in to the belicist bullshit, but also have their fash purity culture generating ever reducing definitions of who's a "true Scotsman". Both things combined are fatal to the continued existence of their political entities, but it won't be me who complains.
Show threadSeiðr
@Gurre @cstross Oh, BTW, there is this about personalist vs. institutional regimes in ACOUP (linked, very appropriately, in the same last entry about the Iran war). https://acoup.blog/2026/03/06/fireside-friday-march-6-2026/
Fireside Friday, March 6, 2026

Hey everyone, we have a Fireside this week and then next week we’ll get back to our somewhat silly break discussing the mechanics of warfare in Dune. But I did want to stop to chatter a bit a…

A Collection of Unmitigated Pedantry
Mar 26 at 3:11pmWeb
Show threadCharlie Stross4d ago
@Illuminatus @Gurre By this analysis, Iran has an institutionalist regime *even if* it has a "supreme leader". Which is *very* bad news for Israeli and US attempts to assassinate their way to a solution.
Show threadSeiðr4d ago
@cstross @Gurre Exactly the point of the Pedant. The US and Israel are in for a world of pain if they believe decapitation strikes would do anything else than "adamantise" the resolve of the regime to resist, respond and drag them into the mud.
Show threadSeiðr4d ago
@cstross @Gurre The worst nightmare I can conceive of that situation is a lot of commanders of the IRGC having envelopes with instructions to operate under the principle of inflicting the maximum possible damage to the enemy in the absence of orders from the top and continue the fight to the bitter end with whatever resources are at hand.