"This weekend showed that we can expect more madness this week and beyond."
~ Steven Beschloss
"This weekend showed that we can expect more madness this week and beyond."
~ Steven Beschloss
"Donald Trump and his minions are having a meltdown. On Saturday, Trump lashed out at the New York Times for an article saying the obvious — that many of his original war goals, whatever they may have been, remain unaccomplished."
~ Paul Krugman
#Trump #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #oil #gas
/2
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/when-hyperglobalization-meets-chaos
"Why the desperation? The answer is obvious. It’s turning out not just that regime change — if that was really the goal — is hard to engineer, but also that the world is a lot more dependent on the Strait of Hormuz than Trump and co. seem to have realized."
"The belief that Israel and the US could help instigate widespread revolt was a foundational flaw in the preparations for a war that has spread across the Middle East."
Mark Mazzetti, Julian E. Barnes, Edward Wong and Ronen Bergman
#Trump #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #oil #gas #Israel #RegimeChange
/5
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/22/us/politics/iran-israel-trump-netanyahu-mossad.html
"Instead of imploding from within, Iran’s govt has dug in and escalated the conflict, striking blows and counterblows against military bases, cities, ships in the Persian Gulf, and against vulnerable oil and gas installations.”
#Trump #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #oil #gas #Israel #RegimeChange
/6
"After more than two weeks of consistent bombing, new US intelligence suggests Iran’s regime is now consolidating power, unlikely to collapse, and led by a cadre more extreme than before."
~ Jon Hoffman
#Trump #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #oil #gas #Israel #RegimeChange
/7
"The president is under enormous pressure, as his war with Iran sparked Iranian officials to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil flows. This outcome was expected by previous presidents, but Trump seemed to think he could avoid it and now is stuck without an easy solution."
~ Heather Cox Richardson
"As former defense secretary and Central Intelligence Agency director Leon Panetta told David Smith of The Guardian, '[I]f there was an escape here for Trump, it would be to declare victory and it’s over and we’ve been able to be successful in all of our military targets. The problem is he can declare victory all he wants but, if he doesn’t get the ceasefire, he’s got nothing.'"
"'And he’s not going to get a ceasefire as long as Iran is holding the gun of the strait of Hormuz against his head.'
'He tends to be naive about how things can happen,' Panetta told Smith. 'If he says it and keeps saying it, there’s always a hope that what he says will come true. But that’s what kids do. It’s not what presidents do.'”
"As unpopular as Donald Trump’s ill-conceived, incompetently managed war was when it began, it is now more unpopular with a key segment of voters. 'Trump’s net approval of -20 for handling the situation in Iran represents a drop from last week’s poll. Then, 39% of Americans approved of how Trump was handling Iran and 52% disapproved — a net approval of -13,' The Economist/YouGov reported last week."
~ Jennifer Rubin
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #ApprovalRating
/11
https://www.contrariannews.org/p/trumps-disastrous-war-comes-home
"Several factors increase the likelihood that Trump’s support will crater.
First and foremost, a decomposing president, plainly out of his depth, is on display as the public increasingly grasps that this debacle was predictable and entirely avoidable. ...
Second, even if Trump wants to, it will become obvious that he has lost control of the timeline and the ballooning cost of the war."
"Third, unlike the Iraq War (when George W. Bush urged Americans to go to the mall to shop) or Trump’s first attack on Iran, virtually every American already has felt — or will soon feel — the war’s impact. The price of oil won’t come down anytime soon."
"Donald Trump is backing down from striking Iranian power plants, giving a five-day extension due to what he describes as productive talks with Iran. The problem is that Iran denies having any conversations with the White House or even through intermediaries."
~ Aaron Parnas
#Trump #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #oil #gas
/14
https://aaronparnas.substack.com/p/news-trump-backs-down-on-bombing
Good morning everyone.
"At least 2,200 troops of the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit have departed from Camp Pendleton aboard the USS Boxer, an amphibious assault ship."
~ Marcie Jones
#Trump #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #KhargIsland #oil #gas #Marines #troops
/16
https://www.wonkette.com/p/mullah-said-thered-be-days-like-this
"In multiple scenarios, if Donald Trump were to invade and try to occupy Kharg Island for an extended period of time, American casualties would very likely be 'considerable,' one of the people familiar with the matter says."
~ Asawin Suebsaeng and Andrew Perez
#Trump #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #KhargIsland #oil #gas #Marines #troops
/17
"Some estimates, the first two sources tell us, are easily in the dozens for an initial phase of occupation, with numbers likely to rise sharply if President Trump wished to hold the island for an extended duration.
Some of the internal Kharg analysis has been shared directly with Trump in recent weeks, sources stress."
#Trump #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #KhargIsland #oil #gas #Marines #troops
/18
The Washington Post is taking things seriously tonight. Here is their headline:
“Trump threats, U.S. troop build-up raise specter of battle for Hormuz.”
It’s not boots on the ground. It’s blood on the ground. At the whim of one man, the blood of thousands has already been spilled. No matter who it belongs to, all blood is precious."
~ Lucian K. Truscott
#Trump #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #KhargIsland #oil #gas #Marines #troops
/19
https://luciantruscott.substack.com/p/what-boots-on-the-ground-really-means
"Anyone who speaks casually about the death and destruction and madness of war is a despicable monster."
#Trump #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #KhargIsland #oil #gas #Marines #troops
/20
"All the madman posturing in the world can’t change this simple fact: Iran knows how badly Trump needs to get the oil-price situation under control. Again and again, Trump has signaled he will let other foreign-policy objectives fall by the wayside to address this major domestic concern."
~ Andrew Egger
"People are still trying to pretend there's some sophisticated plan here."
~ Ron Filipkowski quoting Gregg Carlstrom
#Trump #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz
/22
https://www.meidasplus.com/p/this-weekend-in-politics-bulletin-ed5
"The father of a dead U.S. serviceman has denied claims by Pete Hegseth that he told the Defense Secretary to 'not stop until the job is done' – referring to the war in Iran.
'No, I didn’t say anything along those lines,' Charles Simmons told NBC News in an interview Thursday, recalling his encounter with Hegseth at the Dover Air Force Base in Delaware."
~ Mike Bedigan
#Trump #Hegseth #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #lies #disinformation #propaganda
/23
"Simmons is the father of 28-year-old Master Sergeant Tyler Simmons, who was among the six crew members killed last week when their refueling plane crashed in Iraq."
#Trump #Hegseth #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #lies #disinformation #propaganda
/24
"The Iran conflict has been sold to the public as a story with a clear objective, to stop their nuclear program, punish its proxies, restore deterrence, and then, by magic, stability reigns. But when you dig deeper, you don’t find a coherent plan; you find a chaotic conflict with no endgame. There is no path toward resolution, but rather an endless catastrophe."
~ Mark Mansour
#Trump #Hegseth #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #lies #disinformation #propaganda
/25
https://mmansour.substack.com/p/what-are-the-endgames-for-the-iran
"He’s about to wind down and exit because he doesn’t give a damn about anything except maintaining his wealth and power — and the war is now costing him both.
It’s hurting his financial backers in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar — whose wealth has been seriously diminished by the war and whose vulnerability has been exposed."
~ Robert Reich
#Trump #Hegseth #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #economy #oil #gas #ApprovalRating
/26
"It’s pissing off Trump’s wealthy political backers at home — who are getting pummeled as the U.S. stock market sinks under the weight of the war.
It’s infuriating American voters, as gasoline sells for nearly $4 a gallon — causing Republicans to become ever more anxious about a political backlash in the midterm elections."
#Trump #Hegseth #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #economy #oil #gas #ApprovalRating
/27
"Will Iran be the straw that finally breaks America’s democracy, or forces it to come to its senses, and reckon with the folly of electing a man like Trump?"
~ Alexandra Hall Hall
#Trump #Hegseth #Iran #war #StraitofHormuz #economy #oil #gas #ApprovalRating
/28
https://www.bylinesupplement.com/p/trumps-iran-war-is-pushing-the-post
"What he's doing is, he's negotiating in his head. It's all happening between here and there, and I'm not sure there's much to negotiate with.
He's hearing voices: 'Donald, you're like the most awesomest. Everyone will back off except, you know, they'll back down from you'. And the other side of his head goes, 'Yeah, you're freaking awesome. Everybody chickens out except the Donald.'"
~ Malcolm Nance
https://malcolmnance.substack.com/p/us-iran-warmest-day-24-malcolm-nance
A recording from Black Man Spy - Malcolm Nance's live video
"What’s really dangerous about this situation … [is] the complete unpredictability of Donald Trump. It’s very easy to imagine him growing bored with this war, seeing a few more negative polls, declaring victory, & ending it this week. His friend Mr. Netanyahu will have a few things to say about that, we can be sure, but it does seem like Trump has thrown in the towel on regime change, which he expected to have happened by now."
~ Michael Tomasky
https://newrepublic.com/article/208051/trump-iran-war-quagmire-israel
"It’s also easy to imagine him going in completely the opposite direction: Iran does something that surprises and irks him—that emasculates him personally—and he escalates with a ground invasion. Or even a 'small' nuclear weapon. It was utterly unthinkable that any other American president in the nuclear age would use a tactical nuclear weapon against a nonnuclear nation. But with Trump? Nothing is impossible."
"As Trump’s social media-delivered deadline drew near, world markets slumped and oil prices spiked as traders worried what new chaos would result upon the deadline’s expiration.
True to form, the TACO moment came this morning. In a new Truth Social post, Trump claimed, without evidence, that the two sides had held 'good conversations' about hostilities ending, and that he was postponing the strikes for five days."
Jay Kuo
"Trump says he's negotiating with Iran. Iran says he isn't. Who are you gonna believe? …
Imagine that you were somebody close to Trump, somebody close enough to actually have an influence on his decisions as well as inside knowledge. Here’s what you could have done really just between last night and now."
Paul Krugman
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #economy #InsiderTrading #StockMarket
/33
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/adventures-in-fantasy-diplomacy
Trump says he's negotiating with Iran. Iran says he isn't. Who are you gonna believe?
"You could have sold a bunch of crude oil futures, at very high prices — Brent was over $112 over the weekend — then bought them back immediately after Trump’s announcement of triumphal progress, but before the Iranians said that is not happening. And you could have turned a very, very nice, very large profit."
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #economy #InsiderTrading #StockMarket
/34
"To say that insider trading might be driving U.S. policy would have been outrageous in the past. Who thinks that that’s beyond the realm of possibility now?"
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #economy #InsiderTrading #StockMarket
/35
"As I am writing we are getting clips from a presser Trump just did. War ending in a few days, strait of Hormuz opening soon, bombing them forever, Iranians making concessions in talks that are not actually happening - all just extraordinary incoherence and make believe."
~ Simon Rosenberg
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #economy #InsiderTrading #StockMarket
/36
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/trumps-three-vietnams-and-the-wisdom
"After falling this morning on what appeared to be promising news Brent Crude is rising again and the Dow has begun to drop - for nothing has changed on the ground, other than Trump looks more ridiculous, scared, and weaker."
#Trump #Iran #war #oil #gas #economy #InsiderTrading #StockMarket
/37
JD Vance is enormously unpopular even with MAGA.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/secret-gop-cabal-with-vance-and-thiel-plots-eternal-maga-rule/
Vance's billionaire backers need Trump to last long enough to lose the midterms.
We should all dread a Peter Thiel covert regency if Trump is impeached or resigns or is otherwise ousted from office.
"It’s also easy to imagine him going in completely the opposite direction: Iran does something that surprises and irks him—that emasculates him personally—and he escalates with a ground invasion. Or even a “small” nuclear weapon. It was utterly unthinkable that any other American president in the nuclear age would use a tactical nuclear weapon against a nonnuclear nation. But with Trump? Nothing is impossible."
very good question : we all wish we knew the answer 🤔
in fact, a whole lot of very good questions...