Seems like #trump cornered himself as his deadline for his ultimatum in #Iran approaches < 24 hrs. away (where Iran either opens up the #StraitOfHormuz or the #US destroys Iran's power plants).

I can't imagine that hurting so many innocent people by destroying all those facilities would be favored by most allies. Nor would it be beneficial for any new government in a potential regime change.

On the other hand, if he doesn't follow through, the world will see he was all bluff.

#MyThoughts

@dalfen #trump is threatening to strike the "biggest plant first". that is, there is no path of "incremental" damage but rather either a knock-out blow [regime collapses], or "the worst is already passed" [regime sustained the blow and ready to hit back]. so far, #iran showed that it does not bluff. its message is consistent. maybe they cannot hit as hard and not as showy as trump & co, but they do inflict real pain. ironically, best outcome for now would be #TACO doctrine.
@hszakher Oh that's true! He cornered himself another way by threatening to hit the biggest plant first. And from what I've seen so far in this, Iran hasn't bluffed. Barring trump deciding to blow up the power plants against better judgment, I don't see what other play trump has except to taco it out... make it look like he extended the time and then made a deal or something.
@dalfen trump, so far, did not show the ability to come and say something like "I consulted our allies and decided to postpone the hit". he can blame others for his mistakes, but cannot see himself "following" others' recommendations. that's why I am really curious how he will pull a TACO this time

@hszakher 💯 He thinks he is the best thing since sliced bread, so to speak, and the smartest person alive. He is prideful and won't admit he was wrong or that other people convinced him to change, lest he appear weak. He will always bluster, lie, gaslight–whatever–to make it look like he somehow came out on top.

If nothing changes, he could announce he showed mercy and allowed more time to release their hold on the Strait as he demanded. Or along those lines, he could strike smaller facilities.

@hszakher Also, his making such an extreme threat (at all) shows desperation on his part.
@dalfen exactly. #Trump keeps making the same mistake over and over. by killing #Iran supreme leader on day#1 of #war (thinking regime will collapse) he lost a major negotiating card. everybody else in the command chain is less significant after the supreme leader. now, he's threatening the same with power plants, or gas fields ...etc. make a big bang on the most important asset. but if this bang doesnt break the regime, you have no more chips to play (no wonder he bankrupted two casinos)

@hszakher So true. It is amazing how he convinced so many that he is some kind of ultra-smart 4D-chess-playing deal maker— what utter nonsense.

He is emotional and impetuous. He doesn't just show his cards (or lack of them) by how he acts, but he screams them out.

I believe he and his admin were on a 'high' from the way that their actions in Venezuela went for them, and they arrogantly figured military actions in Iran would be as quickly successful. They failed to consider the whole picture.

@hszakher Well there we go. Trump is giving #Iran a 5-day postponement. He says that negotiations are going amazingly well, which is interesting because just two days ago or so he said he wasn't going to negotiate with Iran yet.

So THAT's how he TACO'd this one!

@hszakher I thought he might try to buy more time, but I suggested he might act like he is providing mercy. Ha! Silly me lol... of course he wants to project himself as the great negotiator...you know, art of the deal and all 🙄

Also, it is interesting how he all-caps screamed that post. Super stable guy. Doesn't appear troubled whatsoever (ha).

@hszakher Art of the Bluff

And honestly, I doubt negotiations have been going on much at all, never mind going amazingly well.

That said, *maybe* some will happen now. At this point, I think Trump is looking for a way out (of course one that will make him look like he came out on top).

@dalfen I am just waiting for official denial from #iran about negotiations. #trump said it himself, there is no one to negotiate with (killed everyone). how do you go from "obliterating" a country, to "negotiations amazingly well"? it's amazingly amazing that he can handle this kind of mental gymnastics without dislocating a mental shoulder

@hszakher So true 😂👏
I just heard from a BBC news commentator that Iran is denying that...

And... here's a reference from Reuters saying that Iran denies there have been no negotiations at all, nevermind amazingly productive ones.

"Iran's Fars news agency said after Trump's post that there was no direct communication with the U.S. or through intermediaries."

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-threatens-retaliate-against-gulf-energy-water-after-trump-ultimatum-2026-03-23/

@dalfen #trump is telling #iran, we're negotiating , you just don't know it yet :D [for reference https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rhoZrJXxsI ]
friends 1.14

YouTube

@hszakher Oh that's great 😂
Just watched the whole clip 😂👏

And absolutely he is. I see him wanting an 'out' now. I think he knows it is WAY different than he expected and more challenging than the war hawks around him that influence him said it would be.

@hszakher I meant to post this earlier but got busy.

Five days is quite specific and seems to coordinate with the time more US troops are due to arrive in the area.

@dalfen exactly this. there is also reports from flight logs about large movements of troops to airbases in #Israel and #jordan https://toad.social/@KimPerales/116280395856024661 #trump just can't back down now. if the negotiations with #iran requires giving up their missile arsenal, they'd rather use them and "achieve victory for #islam over #zionists and #crusaders" than to hand them over. once all the bullets are fired and nothing left, then everybody can sit down and negotiate.
Kim Perales (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image Deeply concerning:🚨"Flight logs show a huge influx of troops to the ME incl many NEW DEPLOYMENTS just today. Several hours after Trump’s claimed “halt” due to “talks”‼️" -A Cochran "A sig mvt🚨is underway from US Army, Navy & Air Force bases in CONUS to the ME comprised of at least 35 C-17 flts since Mar12, w11 more flts on the way. Origins: 12-Hunter Army Air Field/Fort Stewart, GA... Destinations: 17-Ovda AB, IL 13-King Faisal AB, JO 4-King Hussein INTL airport, JO" -Intel Frog #IranWar #USPol

toad.social
@hszakher This is all extremely alarming 😳
@dalfen this is how the #iran #Iraq war of 1980s extended from "three day operation" to eight years of bloody stalemate. Iraq made quick gains and invaded parts of iran (iran was extremely weak, coming out of revolution with defections from military, executions ...etc). then for the following eight years, iraq did all it can (including attacking #israel) to try to convince iran to a cease fire. #khomenie refused, insisting on getting the head of #saddam_hussein as a price for cease fire (cont..)
iran was willing to fund shia millitias in #lebanon (#Hezbollah) to attack #Israel while fighting iraq at the same time, all while under sanctions where they couldn't easily obtain weapons and spare parts. ironically, after eight years, iran was finally willing to "take poisonous pill" and agree to cease fire when they feared that #USA was ready to get directly involved in the war to the side of #iraq. at the time, they assumed the regime won't survive. only then, they agreed to stop. (cont..)
now, 47 years later, who can play that role? there is no "neutral third party" that is powerful enough, to say to #iran / #usa "hey kids, stop fighting or I'll have to get involved". if any, #China and #Russia will get involved to #iran side, Europe to #USA, #Gulf countries were funding iraq back then against iran, and now openly against iran now. all hope now rest on #turkey (#Roman Empire) the historical enemy of #Persia (Empire) (done / #mythoughts )
addendum: #iraq back then was the USA of the Middle East, so to speak. it was the richest country, largest, most developed, most intellectual/civilised. it was backed by #france and #usa military and diplomatically, by #gulf financially. it was really supposed to be a no-brainer victory. #saddam didnt even want "regime change", he just wanted to take a bigger port on the gulf in a hostile anti iran swamp area that cannot even be defended by #iran !
@hszakher Oh wow... it was supposed to be a no-brainer victory then <sigh 😔>
and things are much different now.
@hszakher Oh my, to consider Turkey in such a role being that they are the historical enemy of Persia... this is so awful.
@dalfen no direct negotiations between #USA and #Iran. what's been happening the last days is indirect "exchange of talks" (cant call it negotiating) via #egypt #qatar and #turkey to try to find a way to dial down the war. it seems gulf states are actually pressuring(?) USA to de-escalate/stop as in reality they do take #iran threats seriously (while taking trump macho rhetorics "less" seriously). you get this between the lines of local arabic media. publicly: trump is saviour & USA is winning
@hszakher Oh that's so interesting about local Arabic media.
Ah yes, and I have heard that various gulf states are working to de-escalate... but wow, I didn't realize how the media favors trump.
It's a precarious situation. No doubt gulf states are concerned about their security and walking a fine line.
"No direct communication" was clearly carefully worded by Iran.