Charlie Stross16h ago

Meanwhile, a thought about the Macbook Neo:

The Neo uses an A18 Pro SOC, the 2024 iPhone Pro cpu—the iPhone 17 Pro runs on the A19 Pro. (The Neo soaks up their stockpile of high-end phone rejects.)

Apple's about to ramp up for the 2026 iPhones, which will release in September on the A20Pro.

Phones outsell laptops by a huge margin so I think the current Neo will be quietly replaced by an A19 Pro model in September, to use up the reject stockpile once as iPhone 17 sales tapers off.

/1

Show threadCharlie Stross16h ago

Implication: if you want a Macbook Neo this year, maybe wait until September—unless you expect the coming supply chain shock to hit Apple, too. Which is not impossible if TSMC can't meet their chip delivery dates.

If that happens, prices will shoot up and scarcity economics will take over, so buy now and be prepared to run it for the next decade.

/2

Show threadGraydon16h ago

@cstross Taiwan is dependent on natural gas for electrical generation. Reports vary about their stockpile, but I haven't seen anything that suggests they might have more than 20 days. And like the rest of East Asia they're supplied from the Persian Gulf.

All by itself, that hit on Qatar's LNG facilities makes me think Apple will not escape the supply shock.

The other part of this is that no one who isn't Apple wants to see "it's a phone" laptops. Other parties may encourage the Neo to fail.

Show threadRootWyrm 🇺🇦15h ago

@graydon @cstross oh, Apple is super fucked, make zero mistake there. They do not make any of their own parts no matter how much they claim otherwise. For example, that soldered on memory isn't DRAM, it's HBM bonded to the die. They don't make HBM or have solid contracts, and are fighting the grift for those parts and backend. Storage, same story. They're screwed.

Neo itself, that's a separate discussion. (Hi. I am very much the expert there.) It's not a good idea for many reasons.

Show threadRootWyrm 🇺🇦
@graydon @cstross viewing the Neo as anything OTHER than an attempt to compete in the extreme down-market x86 space is wrong. That's where Apple priced it. They want to fight the $599-799 x86 laptops. Literally the Walmart and BestBuy space. NOT the Chromebook/Arm space.
And the foundation for this idiocy is line-go-up. There is no growth space left. So they have to try and take market share. And customers in the $599-799 space can't *afford* to migrate their entire life to Apple's ecosystem.
1:31pmWeb
Show threadCharlie Stross15h ago
@rootwyrm @graydon You missed an angle: Apple has a stockpile of not-good-enough-for-flagship-phones SOCs that are nevertheless adequate for low-end-laptop territory they previously ignored. Slap a cheap LCD screen, keyboard, and battery on it and it's a Neo. The chipset is *free*—otherwise they go in the trash.
Show threadRootWyrm 🇺🇦15h ago
@cstross @graydon no, I didn't, because these aren't "not good enough" SoCs. These are just phone parts not going into phones that aren't selling because the upgrade isn't compelling. Using cheap parts with it ALSO damages Apple's vaunted 'high end' image, even more than the budget price. So their margins out of the gate are razor thin or non-existent. And all they're doing is cannibalizing the market for high margin base model Macbooks.
Show threadRootWyrm 🇺🇦15h ago
@cstross @graydon case in point, *you*. Would you pay $1099 for a Macbook Air 13" when a Neo costs half that and covers your needs? Of course you'd buy the Neo. Would you buy a Mac Mini where you'll also need to buy a monitor, keyboard, and mouse at $599+, or the 'good enough' Neo? The salesdroid is going to push those customers to the Neo too. And that 'high end' LCD and keyboard erases margins in an instant. Macbooks and Minis are >30% margin; the Neo has to be <10% and likely <5%.
Show threadCharlie Stross14h ago

@rootwyrm @graydon In my case: if the Air was to be my main machine with a monitor hookup on my desk, I'd buy it. If I already had a desktop, and wanted a cheap travel note, I'd buy the Neo.

(I've already got the mouse/keyboard/monitor/external SSDs plugged into my desktop.)

Show threadRootWyrm 🇺🇦14h ago
@cstross @graydon exactly; you'd walk on the one they make money on for a travel laptop. Which is exactly what the average existing customer is going to do. "Oh, it's half the price and good enough? OK!" It's cannibalizing their own sales.
And there won't be the new customers they expect, because $599 plus "replace everything you already own and learn a new OS" is an instant loser.
Wouldn't surprise me if the Neo is a loss leader either; Apple tried that with the dead AR/VR thing.
Show threadRootWyrm 🇺🇦15h ago
@graydon @cstross similarly, customers aren't nearly as stupid as Apple thinks they are or treats them as. They can read the spec sheet and understand that $599 HP might not be great, but it still gives more cores, double the RAM, double the storage, and lets the kid play Forkknife. And the salespeople will point that out too. So the only people buying it are Apple customers going cheaper than their Macbook.
Oops, margins go poof.
Show threadj40413h ago

@rootwyrm @graydon @cstross I would challenge your assumptions:

— Apple doesn't sell “loss leaders”. It’s why even a simple USB cable can cost $20 and the VisionPro is $3500. The Neo is profitable.

— Apple is not cannibalizing, they’re pulling new users in. Services are a huge profit center. Neo customers will subscribe.

— MacBooks are known to be more durable than PCs. You can still see 10-year old iPhones or MacBooks in use. RAM? Cores? Only nerds care.

The Neo is a game-changer.

Show threadChuckles13h ago
@j404 @rootwyrm @graydon @cstross the Neo is capitalizing on the final death wheeze of Windows.
Show threadCharlie Stross13h ago
@celeduc @j404 @rootwyrm @graydon Windows 11 is trying to make a last-minute body swerve by walking back the CoPilot/AI integration, but I don't think it'll suffice.
Show threadCharlie Stross13h ago
@j404 @rootwyrm @graydon As I've already said: the Neo consists of a cheap screen, a keyboard, a battery … and floor sweepings that would go out in the trash if they didn't use them in the neo. The brains of the neo are iPhone 17 Pro *rejects*. The Neo makes iPhone production more profitable just by existing.
Show threadRootWyrm 🇺🇦13h ago

@cstross @j404 @graydon folks, you are trying to 'explain' to somebody who has shipped north of 100k systems since 1991. I do not know how the sausage is made; I'm the sausage maker.

The Neo is not cheap. That LCD is not cheap. High contrast, high resolution IPS 60Hz 13" panel plus integration, that's a $90+ BOM by itself not including tooling and hinges which by themselves are likely ~$10-20. That's EASILY a $50 BOM keyboard. Fusing post-hoc costs backend, it is extremely not free. etc.

Show threadPhilippa Cowderoy13h ago

@j404 @rootwyrm @graydon @cstross New customers in a segment that has a disproportionate number of first-time buyers (or intended recipients) too

(don't look at me, the first laptop I owned myself was an Eee 701 4G, until then I was desktop only)

Show threadCadbury Moose13h ago

@j404 @rootwyrm @graydon @cstross

MacBook 5.2 (Jan 2009) 17 years
iMac 21.5 inch, mid-2011 15 years.

😁 It's reliable kit.

(I have older Macs (IIci onwards, I think) but they're not in use and will need the power supply electrolytic capacitors re-forming (or more likely replacing) before applying power to avoid an explosion.)

Show threadtruh13h ago
@j404 @rootwyrm @graydon @cstross I'm really wondering how far an 8GB RAM laptop is supposed to go. That's cutting it close even for casual users.
Show threadRoss Burton13h ago
@truh @j404 @rootwyrm @graydon @cstross it’s really not that unrealistic for casual use. Until my daughter needed a laptop for school last year I was happily using a base M1 MBA for personal use (including coding and Lightroom). Yes, my new 16GB M3 MPB is faster but for safari and basic Photos stuff the 8GB M1 is absolutely fine.
Show threadTubemeister13h ago

@truh @j404 @rootwyrm @graydon @cstross Nah.

It's cutting it close for us nerds. I'm not in the market for a Neo either, though it'll probably actually do 90% of what I want.

But my wife's been running a base config (ie, 8 GB) Air for a few years now and it's *fine*. Even with the obligatory 50 tabs open, it does ok.

She would have absolutely been in the market for a Neo. $600 takes away the main pain point for a lot of people looking at Macs.

And it comes in yellow, too. ;-)

Show threadJon Wilson7h ago
@j404 @rootwyrm @graydon @cstross 10 year old iPhones are pretty useless, because Apple's developer tools strongly encourage app releases that only target newer hardware. Good luck trying to get a music app other than Apple or Spotify working on an IPhone 8
Show threadTim Bray13h ago
@rootwyrm @graydon @cstross All that might be true if customers, to quote you, "read the spec sheet". They don't. The Neo is going to provide a way better experience than the Windows competition.
Show threadRootWyrm 🇺🇦13h ago
@timbray @graydon @cstross customers in the sub-$600 "low-end" segment give exactly zero shits and typically have low knowledge. They buy what has biggest numbers for the least money with the least friction.
Which is how I know Apple isn't going to win new customers with it. Microsoft could actively shit on people and that segment would stay with them. They don't know and don't care, they just want what they're used to.
Show threadRootWyrm 🇺🇦13h ago
@timbray @graydon @cstross they're also the least brand-loyal of all segments; it's effectively *zero* brand loyalty beyond Windows. They want to do their taxes on it, open their documents, read their email, and use the same apps and tools they've been using, but not have the shitty experience of a 'netbook.'
Show threadGareth 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿13h ago

@rootwyrm @graydon @cstross
Don’t forget, it’s 100 dollarpounds cheaper for education, and it’s more repairable. I think Apple are banking on schools replacing fleets of crappy Chromebooks with these.

Can you honestly say that after 3 years of MacOS you’d consider switching to Windows, if you don’t play a lot of games or need certain Windows-only applications?

I’ve been a Windows user all my life and an IT professional for half of it (3.11 to date) and I can honestly say that if it wasn’t required at work, I would be happy never using Windows again. I certainly don’t have it on any personal devices.

My £800 16GB RAM HP work machine is dogshit slow just to get to the desktop and load OneDrive. We’re talking minutes. It’s less than 40 seconds on my Air.

If my mother breaks her (hand-me-down) M1 Air, she’d be more than happy with a Neo.

Show threadRootWyrm 🇺🇦13h ago
@gareth @graydon @cstross yeah, which is the same shit they tried before that didn't work and nearly bankrupted the company. Twice.
And schools don't have $499-699 per student laptop. They're lucky to have any money at all. Plus you'd have to migrate all the Windows-based Windows-centric education software both front-end and back-end (e.g. teachers) which is a HUGE expense and requires THOSE vendors to cooperate (good luck, lol!)
Show threadRootWyrm 🇺🇦13h ago
@gareth @graydon @cstross the repairability is also a very dumb move because we already know that low margin/loss leader devices DEPEND on 1) high margin service add-ons and lots of them (OR) loading them up with paid shitware 2) REFRESHING UNITS FREQUENTLY. Those cheap laptops are DESIGNED to break because they depend on selling a new one every 12-24 months. It's why you quickly go from $700-1500 to $2.7k+. Making a long-life laptop profitable means that laptop has to be fairly expensive.
Show threadRootWyrm 🇺🇦13h ago
@gareth @graydon @cstross IBM ThinkPads are the perfect example. Outside of the high-end models, they targeted a roughly 3.5 year design life with fairly high fault rates. Because these were machines sold to corporations with a service contract (where the margin lived) that got refreshed on a schedule (~3 years average.) An X60 was an expense, not an investment like a T60p.