Implication: if you want a Macbook Neo this year, maybe wait until September—unless you expect the coming supply chain shock to hit Apple, too. Which is not impossible if TSMC can't meet their chip delivery dates.

If that happens, prices will shoot up and scarcity economics will take over, so buy now and be prepared to run it for the next decade.

/2

@cstross Taiwan is dependent on natural gas for electrical generation. Reports vary about their stockpile, but I haven't seen anything that suggests they might have more than 20 days. And like the rest of East Asia they're supplied from the Persian Gulf.

All by itself, that hit on Qatar's LNG facilities makes me think Apple will not escape the supply shock.

The other part of this is that no one who isn't Apple wants to see "it's a phone" laptops. Other parties may encourage the Neo to fail.

@graydon @cstross oh, Apple is super fucked, make zero mistake there. They do not make any of their own parts no matter how much they claim otherwise. For example, that soldered on memory isn't DRAM, it's HBM bonded to the die. They don't make HBM or have solid contracts, and are fighting the grift for those parts and backend. Storage, same story. They're screwed.

Neo itself, that's a separate discussion. (Hi. I am very much the expert there.) It's not a good idea for many reasons.

@rootwyrm @graydon @cstross I would challenge your assumptions:

— Apple doesn't sell “loss leaders”. It’s why even a simple USB cable can cost $20 and the VisionPro is $3500. The Neo is profitable.

— Apple is not cannibalizing, they’re pulling new users in. Services are a huge profit center. Neo customers will subscribe.

— MacBooks are known to be more durable than PCs. You can still see 10-year old iPhones or MacBooks in use. RAM? Cores? Only nerds care.

The Neo is a game-changer.