Mastodawn

Prof. Sam Lawler 9h ago

WOW what a rollercoaster looking at my email and texts this morning. First piece of context: I am staying in an (incredibly nice) sheep shearer's hut (actually bigger than my house) in the Aoraki Mackenzie Dark Sky Reserve and THIS is what the sunrise looks like right now. Wow.

kworker 💻🏴🌱8h ago

Prof. Sam Lawler

I have an email from my collaborator saying he just re-ran the CRASH Clock code, and we are now under 3 days for the first time ever! Good work on bringing us that much closer to Kessler Syndrome, everybody. Special congrats to SpaceX on that one. Hope you take full credit when it starts!

https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/crashclock/ (Website hasn't been updated yet, but here's info on what the CRASH Clock tells us about how close we are to Kessler Syndrome)

CRASH Clock – Outer Space Institute

Prof. Sam Lawler 9h ago

I have another email from @planet4589.bsky.social saying that he's already put the brand new proposed AI data center megaconstellation on his website https://planet4589.org/space/con/conlist.html

That's now 3 new AI data center megaconstellations proposed in the last month or so, one of which has a million satellites (thanks, SpaceX. You suck.)

Thanks to many hours from many astronomers, the response to SpaceX's response to AAS's petition to deny is ready for approval, has to be submitted by Monday.

Jonathan's Space Report | Space Statistics

Jonathan McDowell's new homepage

Prof. Sam Lawler 9h ago

And it appears that Reflect Orbital missed the deadline to respond to the nearly 2000 comments and petitions to deny that were submitted to the FCC!!!! Thank you to everyone who wrote in!!

This is amazing. It unfortunately probably doesn't mean that they will stop the process of launching, the FCC will still consider it, and may approve it. But at least I don't have to help write a new response by like... Tuesday. Fuck you, FCC, this process is awful and stupid.

Prof. Sam Lawler 9h ago

And last but not least, HOLY SHIT the stars were fucking incredible last night!!!! (No auroras visible from here but the stars were so good who cares)

(Lots of satellites, of course. Sigh.)

Prof. Sam Lawler 9h ago

And lastly, Kia Ora, Tekapo!! Excited to give a talk for you later today. (It's at 4pm, not 6am, this website is wrong) https://happeningnext.com/event/astronomy-vs-the-billionaire-space-race-eid3a0dhdn6jl
Last scheduled talk of the #ProfSamLectureTour

Now time to (politely and carefully) wander around an active sheep farm! Happy equinox!

Astronomy vs. the Billionaire Space Race at The Godley Hotel Lake Tekapo, Timaru on 21st March, 2026

Astronomy vs. the Billionaire Space Race happening at The Godley Hotel Lake Tekapo, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand, Timaru on Sat, 21 Mar, 2026 at 06:00 am

@sundogplanets I love seeing that I'm not the only one whose brain always comes up with "solstice" even though I know perfectly well what the difference between that and equinox is. 😸

Prof. Sam Lawler 9h ago

@callmedawn You didn't know it's the solstice down here in the southern hemisphere?

HAHA just kidding, I messed up and I will fix it. Thank you.

@sundogplanets Welcome to my favourite holiday area!
I hope you're having a wonderful time there.

Lisa 🦔9h ago

it’s full of STARS 🤩

Den of Earth 3h ago

@mycrowgirl @sundogplanets
I heard that in Dave Bowman's voice...

Flipper 🐬🏳️‍🌈8h ago

@sundogplanets really envious of the Magellanic Clouds - i didn't manage to see them when I was in Patagonia - just the southern cross.

Beautiful picture, thanks for sharing. (Failed astrophysicist turned climate scientist turned corporate shill here)

Dr. Eric J. Fielding, PhD 8h ago

@sundogplanets Beautiful views of the stars! The sky doesn’t look like that in Los Angeles

Ken Butler 8h ago

@sundogplanets amazing pictures!

@sundogplanets Very nice to see such a sky with so many stars. I would be happy with some lesser, knowing what I could see at my place, with all the cities all around.
Thanks for sharing this incredible view.

queer_cat_nonbinary

@sundogplanets i used to enjoy looking for satellites, but that was decades before Starlink, now it's a drag seeing them.

Falow, Master Surchid 4h ago

@sundogplanets Oh my. This is what they took from us.

GhostOnTheHalfShell 40m ago

Oh you, so easily distracted by pretty little stars of Varda.

“A Elbereth Gilthoniel..

cognitively accessible math 9h ago

@sundogplanets It would be really, really awesome if they decided it just wasn't worth the hassle because of all those woke people.

David Culley 3h ago

@sundogplanets Thank YOU.

Michelle Hughes 8h ago

@sundogplanets @planet4589.bsky.social

If they're going to wreck the sky, they could at least put up some space telescopes as a public service.

Prof. Sam Lawler 8h ago

@MegaMichelle @planet4589.bsky.social Not a solution... we need ground-based astronomy anyway. https://www.space.com/hubble-images-spoiled-starlink-satellite-steaks

Hubble Space Telescope images increasingly affected by Starlink satellite streaks

Over 5% of recent Hubble Space Telescope images examined in the study contained Starlink satellite trails.

Space

Jean-François Mezei 8h ago

@sundogplanets @planet4589.bsky.social This is just an "hyperloop" thing. Hyperloop was an attempt at killing the LA to San Francisco train.
Here, it is different: Melon Husk and now Bezos are using the currently easily purchaseable government to get exclusive use of basically any and all orbits so anyone launching a satellite will need to buy the orbital slot from them instead of file paperwork with government to get one. Control orbits = prevent competition.

calvin 🛋️ 7h ago

@jfmezei @sundogplanets @[email protected] ya, that's an aspect that concerns me, is the enclosure of orbital space. Even the sky will be taken from us, and privately owned. 😟

But I'm also holding back the idea that there's some sort of 5D chess going on; Starlink and Reflect Orbital are projects to monopolize a sector of industry. So I'm thinking it isn't too unique.

Bridgy Fed

Bridgy Fed is a bridge between decentralized social networks like the fediverse, Bluesky, and web sites and blogs.

kwayk42 39m ago

@sundogplanets @[email protected]

Asta [AMP]9h ago

@sundogplanets I mean, who was still using GPS anyway? Or satellite imagery for weather? Or looking at things in deep space? Or monitoring the sun? Or taking pictures of the night sky and pondering what it is to be human?

I mean it's not like there was any other way to get internet rolled out to those places, so!

/s

D. G. Marshall 9h ago

@aud @sundogplanets

I'm not a scientist, but I think I've got this right:

A) data centres guzzle large amounts of drinking water

B) large amounts of water are not easily available in earth orbit

C) the large amounts of water are used for cooling

D) space is a vacuum, insulating data centres from radiating heat, and keeping them warm as toast, which is a bad thing for computers

Prof. Sam Lawler 8h ago

@aud There are often other options that are kind of terrible in rural places. I understand why people have jumped on Starlink. I just really don't understand why Starlink needs SO DAMN MANY satellites to deliver this service. If it was really just for a few rural people who didn't have other options, then they certainly wouldn't need 42,000 sats...

Asta [AMP]8h ago

@sundogplanets oh yeah, I understand why people use Starlink in rural areas, for sure. Didn’t mean to make it sound like I’m snarking on them; I’m just snarking that we could have made a proper effort to roll out fiber to these places… but since Musk owns a rocket company, not a fiber company, wellll…

Prof. Sam Lawler 8h ago

@aud TOTALLY agree there :)

schrotthaufen 8h ago

@aud @sundogplanets Also, satellite sounds cooler, *and* you can take them away. Abandoning the fiber, because the ruling government of a country isn’t fascist enough for your taste, isn’t as effective when some other ISP can use the cables. Not so much with the sats. (Yes, I do think for Musk it’s all about power, and looking cool while amassing it.)

Matt Hall 9h ago

I don't think I ever _really_ grokked that a huge amount of currently in-use equipment has to be moved constantly to avoid it being destroyed and creating a cascade (I know, I know that's literally the definition of Kessler Syndrome.)

I think it's the _active_ part of the monitoring and responding that escaped me before.

So... Equipment that could keep station _sooo_ much longer if it didn't have to wobble all the damn time ends it's lifespan earlier than it should?

Prof. Sam Lawler 8h ago

@401matthall I'm honestly not sure if the fuel is the primary limitation on working lifetime. But it certainly means they can't dodge forever, and dodging more often requires more fuel, which either requires bigger tanks (and more $$$) or shorter operating lifetimes.

Matt Hall 8h ago

That was the gist of the question, yeah. Thanks for the response! <3

D. G. Marshall 9h ago

Rename it Musk-Kessler Syndrome?

GhostOnTheHalfShell 4h ago

Is it all right for me to Snark that we should launch him into low earth orbit in order to clear out all of his space junk?

Would there be a way of dismantling this shit?