What if I could convince you that taking the same time to explain detailed requirements and carefully validate results with a junior colleague instead of a chatbot would not only give you two people who understood the code instead of zero, but if you do it a few times in a row you eventually get a senior colleague out of the deal for free.
@mhoye
I'm not sure how that helps me with my acute lack of self esteem and the desire to control that engenders.
@ohmrun @mhoye don't worry coding is inherently engender neutral
@Salty
I wondered if I spelt it wrong, which might have made it a Freudian slip, but I didn't, so the most out could be is a double engender.
@mhoye
@mhoye but then I can't have an AI slave girlfriend 😑
@mhoye That's why I keep making devlogs and open sourcing stuff, but I've yet to find colleagues that listen to me for free. Not that I'm advocating for the chatbots. They don't understand most of what I say either.
@mhoye unfortunately upper mgmt will acknowledge that, but then tell you that it's way cheaper in the short term to use a chatbot, and any long term consequences are unforeseeable and also not their problem anyway
@mrt181 @mhoye Cheaper at the moment in the heavily subsidised state of things, I heavily doubt it'll be any cheaper soon when the bills are due.

@julienbarnoin @mrt181 @mhoye it’s a few easy mathematically-sound steps from ‘cheaper/subsidized now but not when the bills are due’ to (a) adding up the bills, (b) amortizing (c) splitting that to make a per-user cost.

How are we going to pay them 1.6 trillion while unemployment spikes?

@cascheranno @mrt181 @mhoye I see two possible outcomes of AI progress and neither suggest it'll help at all to learn how to work with it.
- 1: It stops improving before it's good enough to do most people's jobs, the billions of investments stop pouring in, and AI companies crash.
- 2: It keeps improving and getting cheaper until most human jobs are dispensible. World economy collapses and AI companies crash due to lack of people with salaries to buy their service.
Is there a third path?

@julienbarnoin @mrt181 @mhoye

Well, I worry about 2a: it’s like your 2, but an added step; jobs wiped out, many people broke, companies using AI then crash because their customer base shrinks, which crashes the AI companies before break-even.

@julienbarnoin @mrt181 @mhoye
I've literally brought this up with my team, and everyone shrugged it off. Devs at big companies may be insulated a bit when the "subsidies" end, but small companies, students, recent-grads, etc. won't be.
@longhairmoto @mrt181 @mhoye The big companies won't pay either if it's more expensive than paying for people. We'll see.
@mhoye maybe this is the inevitable outcome of unchecked capitalism and wealth hoarding. All productivity gains are fully absorbed by the 1% of the 1% wealthiest people, civil collapse, uprisings.
@mhoye what if they unionized though
@puercomal

Don't give the LLMs any more ideas.

@mhoye
@mhoye
that is witchcraft! witchcraft is not progress! and anyway it's social interaction so it's probably socialist! dirty commies here sharing their skills and improving themselves and each other.

@mhoye But then we'd have more senior employees who'd know what they were worth and expected to be compensated accordingly and when we didn't, they'd leave to work for a competitor instead of being laid off as junior staff. Why should we train our competitors' new hires?

I honestly can't tell if I'm being cynical and sarcastic or if this is actually what they teach people in Business school.

@arclight @mhoye
“Here is a magic text generator that only you are smart enough to use while everybody else does it by hand”
GO BACK
“Here is a magic business school that only you are smart enough to go to while everybody else spends decades learning from experience”
FURTHER
“Here is a magic money printer that only you are smart enough to buy while everybody else works all day and saves”
@flyingsaceur @mhoye "Here are some magic beans that lead to untold riches in the sky that only you are smart enough to buy while everyone else raises livestock"
@arclight @mhoye I have this sucking pig in this burlap sack, and for a very reasonable price. No, it’s not stolen [wink] but don’t open the bag, it will try to escape meow
@arclight good news! If you’re using the chatbots you’re already training your competition, you just don’t know it.
@mhoye @arclight This seems obviously true. I don't understand how companies can possibly allow their "secret sauce" to be part of the training inputs for their competition. I predict a return to trade secrets.

@shapr @mhoye @arclight I believe it goes "you pay us a shitload more money, we pinky-promise not to use your developers' chat sessions to train our models".

Though that makes the models *less* useful to your developers, because they don't learn any of the idiosyncrasies of your proprietary systems!

@shapr @mhoye @arclight What perplexes me is that from at least the mid-'90s to about 5 years ago, the secret sauce/source was the most secret, most precious commodity the company had, and under no circumstances could anyone outside the company be allowed to access it, glimpse it, or even be provided with any hints as to its dark mysteries. And now, companies are just "quick, we have send all our repos as input to this foreign company's magic box that we don't even really understand!"

Wut?

@aspragg @shapr @mhoye If you just churn the code base every 6 weeks, and replace all your tech staff with contract vibe coders, does your source code still have value? Just print out all your Sooper Sekrit Prompts, seal them up in an old mayonnaise jar, and bury them under the CTO's porch.

@arclight @mhoye That is actually what they teach people in business school.

It's a special case of "labour costs are waste; minimize them".

We're coming to this from a perspective of wanting the system to work well in some engineering sense. The metric controlling the money is strictly about getting paid. Anything that doesn't immediately change how you get paid is invisible.

(If it wasn't, corporations wouldn't keep flinging themselves off the trust thermocline.)

@mhoye That's not interesting.

Experienced developers prefer a chatbot that does exactly what they ask instead of a junior that might come up with a better solution or idea. The horror of some minion becoming better that you are... there goes your job security.

(idiots)

@peter_slwk @mhoye Do we *have* chatbots that do what they're asked? Certainly not the ones my company is using. Ours seem to just fuck up working code and shit out the most inefficient obfuscated scripts I've ever seen.
@mhoye for that to work they have to hire you a junior colleague

@mhoye

Ok but how would that increase shareholder value for openAI ?

@mhoye
As I prepared to leave my last job, while working remotely, I had a bunch of Teams meetings with the youngster taking over two of my products, where we walked through the code together, and practiced builds and debug sessions, so they would have practical experience doing it.

The engineering and support for one of the products was outsourced to a small team in Mexico, who I later learned are still making extensive use of those sessions, which the youngster had thoughtfully recorded.

@mhoye Nigel Tufnel voice: But this one’s got AI.
@mhoye they were never okay with Agile and they have never been okay with pair programming. From their POV, AI is a senior.

@mhoye my boss is trying to justify creating a position to promote me in to, and part of the justification is if I can spend more time on development of new hires, you can hire people at a more junior level because I can grow them into the person you need, instead of you trying to hire unicorns.

🤞🤞🤞 the argument lands (there’s some other justifications as well, but that’s the part that lines up with your point)

@mhoye I'm convinced! I mean I was convinced of that prior to reading your post, it's part of my experience for sure.
@mhoye lmao developers are so last year, dont you know now *anyone* can code? The future is now old man /s

@mhoye So many jobs I have had where I yern to have someone to talk to, to tease out and clarify my thinking.

So, yes, Yes, YES

The LLMs do help, but are no substitute for an actual conversation with an real person.

@mhoye @3psboyd sounds like an idea so good that it’s worth a trillion dollar valuation
@mhoye BUT PRODUCTIVITY!!! $$$$$$

@mhoye so if you convinced me of that...

Firstly I would be making the same mistake as hype-merchants and naive Execs equating LLMs to Developers. Also I would feel stupid because I would have completely misunderstood the benefits of documenting a spec to the level of a stupid pattern matcher. I would probably also have taken a crack to the head because the cost, speed and quality profiles of these two things are vastly different.

It's as if they're entirely different tools a team can reach for? 🤔😂

@mhoye (I suspect I agree with your sentiment, but I don't think this is the winning idea)

@mhoye Why do you hate the future?

(Just kidding. I despise the hallucination engines and their near-comprehensive destructiveness.)

@mhoye But but but, then you'd have to interact with an actual human being AND they cost a lot more money!

@binford2k This! So much this!

I mean, it's not for free, it costs time and money. But that's spend on something worth it: Growth of a person.

Education – the ultimate status game.

@mhoye

@mhoye From my perspective it is easier to replace complete management board with just one prompt.
@mhoye evergreen short skit about the same thing: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Ioi7DPTHG6A
How Sr Devs are *really* made

YouTube

@mhoye so, don't get me wrong, I agree with you wholeheartedly and am making this argument regularly at work. But it's important to view the other perspective: an LLM will follow your instructions far, far faster than a junior developer. Hell, it will follow my own instructions far faster than *I* would.

It's hard to make the argument that speed is not the important metric here - to show that LLM-generated code is at best average, by definition. That a human gets better every single time they perform a task, in a way LLMs don't. That a trained junior can train other juniors, and if you do it right, you get exponentially more developers, where an LLM stays the same.

The problem is that:
- managers in our industry often care less about quality than about speed of delivery, because you can always fix later (which means, really, they'll have made a bundle and left before consequences must be dealt with).
- the asshole developer, which is unfortunately (in my experience) the majority of us, cares about feeling better than the rest, not about making everybody better.

@NicolasRinaudo @mhoye Wonderful! We figured out that the bigger underlying problem is capitalism. :)
@josch @mhoye was that ever in doubt?
@mhoye Known this for decades already. What would be really interesting is knowing how so many people have forgotten.

@mhoye

Even better, pair program with your junior colleague and the LLM. Set up the LLM to record design decisions and rationales, to look for ambiguities in the project proposal, and to offer suggestions for structuring and refinement. The LLM can be a good record keeper if you make it one. That way you get a junior colleague who can use the tool effectively instead of being a slop cannon (this assumes you’re not a slop cannon yourself), and you get good documentation of the design and the reasoning behind it.

@mhoye That sounds exhausting. The junior dev can just use the "/explain" command.
@mhoye @filmaj who said we were going to carefully validate the results?

@mhoye @filmaj Ok but seriously, this is how your boss sees that transaction

YOU RECEIVE: a grateful, more fully developed human being, a colleague and companion, perhaps even beyond the professional relationship

I RECEIVE: an engineer who now demands more money and is now more of a risk to leave the company

@neilk @filmaj

The classic conversation: The CFO says, what if we train up all these people and they leave? And the CEO replies, what if we don't and they stay?

@mhoye when I take the time to format my question in the ideal way to feed it into a chat bot, I often find that I discover the answer before needing to submit it.

Creating documentation is an excellent way to understand.

@mhoye I think there’s a similarity between the way people ignore the time they waste tweaking their prompts, and the way management doesn’t see the cost of having a two-hour meeting between eight people to discuss whether a $500 purchase is justified.
@maro
@oscherler @maro I think it was @gvwilson who told me that at one point zoom tested a feature where they could tell you how much a meeting would cost and they killed it immediately when wxecs noticed it meant employees could see what meetings actually cost.
@mhoye @oscherler @maro what I heard about was a feature that would show you how much time each person in the meeting had been talking (real-time pie chart), but it was axed because the truth isn't always the right answer