herseycokguzelolacakAlmost 100,000 young men flee Ukraine in two months
So what happens when Ukraine loses? Are we at war with Russia then?
Cowbee [he/they]NATO can’t field an actual war against Russia, NATO countries don’t have the industrial capacity to do so. NATO has big scary tools, but not many of them, and in a protracted war where the industrial power wins Russia would win out. It would be very bloody, long, and NATO would lose, so it’s unlikely that there will be all-out war.
Hyper_red [she/her, she/her]I think if NATO did go to war with Russia, it knows it has a much larger military and supposedly “better” equipment.
I think they’d try to end it really quickly and either totally devestate russia quickly or take out their industry.
But Israel-iran has showed that not even America has the ability to do an actual war against another industrial power
If they had to, then they would try shock and awe. Protracted war wouldn’t work out, whoever has industry holds the cards long-term. Russia would go for stall tactics, I would think.
Operation Barbarossa 2: Surely this time it’ll be like Poland
I think if NATO did go to war with Russia, it knows it has a much larger military and supposedly “better” equipment.
I think they’d try to end it really quickly and either totally devestate russia quickly or take out their industry.
Okay wild fantasies aside, back here in the real world, what’s NATO supposed to actually do? If they try to ‘devastate’ Russia, as in attempt to turn it into Gaza, Russia will 100% nuke the offending countries seriously firing this kind of barrage against them. They’ve been reasonable against Ukraine because Ukraine has hardly been a threat (in fact most Russians would probably say too reasonable), but if a threat they’ve credibly been fearing for decades decided to pull out all the stops, so will they; NATO knows this which is why they weren’t officially in the war this whole time; the best time to be involved was literally day 1, the next best time was day 2, and so on and so forth.
The simple fact is when Ukraine falls, the war is over; you want a country that was willing to risk their safety to get involved in a conflict? You have Yemen, they showed what a country willing to get bombed is willing to do; Euro countries don’t want to get bombed; Let me say that again: Euro countries don’t. want. to. get. bombed. All these countries in Europe had their chance to show how far they were willing to oppose Russia, back when Ukraine had a lot more people to throw in the meat grinder; there’s a lot less Ukrainians now who can and will fight, and Euro forces would have to bear the brunt of the fighting, and if they were willing to do this, they would’ve done it far earlier. Europe. Is. Scared. They won’t join this fight.
When Ukraine falls, the war is over.
Oh yeah was between NATO and Russia is never happening anywhere outside the mashpiratory fantasies of European liberals
PolandIsAStateOfMindI love libs in this thread, some of them are like “Ukraine is winning” and some like “Russia will invade entire Europe”. They gained both takes by following the same propaganda.
By a shifting of rhetorical focus, and so forth
Russia can’t even beat ukraine.
They are steadily achieving all of their stated objectives for the SMO. Russia isn’t trying to do a Marvel-style total destruction of Ukraine like you see in hollywood depictions of war.
“steadily” as in… they complete one every couple of years? How long until they’re done? 10-20-30 years? They started this in 2014 and 11 years later they’ve accomplished next to nothing beyond creating a pile of bodies.
If germany took this long to take poland it probably wouldn’t have been world war at all.
The SMO started in 2022. In 2014, after the western-backed Euromaidan coup, Crimea was annexed but then there were multiple attempts to resolve things peacefully, called the Minsk Agreements, which Kiev broke both times. In 2014, Donetsk and Luhansk seceded from the new far-right led Ukraine, fastforward to 2022 after a decade of fighting and Russia agrees to go in and resolve things by force.
Since 2022, Russia has steadily been gaining more and more territory, and has nearly completely taken the four oblasts they declared as their targets for annexation. Ukraine has slowly but steadily been losing ground, and NATO has proven to be incapable of matching Russian industrial output. Russia isn’t trying to do a Blitzkreig, they are going carefully to fully demillitarize Ukraine and prevent casualties on their own end. They have the industrial capacity to field a protracted war, so they are playing to their advantage.
I read a few articles that said at russias current pace it would take them a hundred years to take Ukraine.
They aren’t trying to take Ukraine, though, and they can progress faster as frontlines are broken through. Pokrovsk, as an example, is currently encircled by Russian forces and will probably be abandoned by Kiev soon, or a large-scale siege will occur.
Whether you’re pro-Ukrainian or not, it’s important to recognize that Ukraine is steadily losing ground and has far less staying power in a protracted war than Russia does. Russia’s advancing slowly and basically forcing a long-term war, which works in their favor.
Shame Russia is doing so poorly after so long and with so many casualties. Plus their own economy is in the shitter. Having to import oil and gas now since their refineries seem to always be on fire. And pick up soldiers from Africa and Indonesia and let’s not forget North Korea.
Ukraine will fight to the last man
Russia is achieving its objectives, it’s economy is strengthened by trade with BRICS, and the damage on refineries has been minimal. Ukraine doesn’t want to fight to the last man, support for the war is waning and forced conscription is already in place. The fact that Russia has volunteers from the DPRK, Cuba, etc doesn’t mean they are losing, Ukraine has volunteers from western countries as well.
I hope the Ukrainian people can be free from this war soon, and that means surrender now. I don’t share your bloodlust.
If Ukraine had 10000 troops from any NATO nation the outcome would be much different.
Those NK troops got used as fodder
I really doubt 10,000 NATO troops would make any tangible difference besides escalation from Russia’s side. The troops from the DPRK were largely sent to honor the defense agreement and to get troop training in Kursk, which was successful for the DPRK.
Th only way Russia can “escalate” is nukes or more strikes at civilian targets. They don’t have a secret reserve of highly trained and experienced troops they could magically send to win the war
Russia has tools like Oreshnik and T-90s that they aren’t fielding. There’s a lot of ways the war can escalate without relying on nukes or civilian targets.
Why won’t they field their best stuff and win the war quickly?
Because that’s not how economies of war work. Russia doesn’t need to waste their best equipment when they are doing well with their current equipment, they just need to gradually proceed as they are to minimize their own casualties. Avoiding mines, encircling strongholds before taking them, etc wouldn’t make any sense to field the best stuff that also costs the most to replace.
Bloodlust lol.
The war can be over if Russia gets the fuck out. Ukraine will fight to the bitter end. Absolutely. They do not, categorically and historically, want to be under Russian rule. And that rings true for pretty much every ex-Soviet nation.
No, there is no fantasy universe where Russia just turns around and stops when they are winning the war. Ukrainians do not want to be sacrificed for foreign profits, and are deserting in huge numbers (see the subject of this post). The far-right nationalist movements in ex-soviet states are temporary, in the long run there will be a return to socialism. There was no “Russian rule” in the USSR.
In what way?
So you don’t really have a point, just ad hominem.
I absolutely have given many points here and never once resorted to ad hominem.
By all means clarify your points.
Your position though is clearly biased against Ukraine, given the instance you’re positing form.
I’m biased in that I’m a communist, sure, but my methods of analysis focus on material reality, not marvel-esque ideas of Russia just turning around and walking away right as it’s clear they are winning.
That’s how the Russian army works. Legitimately look at every front in modern history, hell you can go back pretty far.
Russians know how to do one thing, die. They win wars by attrition. They slow down armies with winter or their own corpses.
Russian war isn’t a strategy, it’s a death pact.
Straight up Nazi shit
They did spend millions of lives against the Nazis, that’s true! Their leadership spent tens of millions of lives sending undertrained and underequipped troops to die and be forgotten or be captured and tortured and killed by the nazis.
Spent lives like no other group in the war, but they got em! They keep an entire front stalemated on a pile of sacrificed young Russian men. And for some reason that’s just how they do it in Russia.
Yes, you’re a Nazi, we get it. You can stop proving it now
redchertRussia stops at Zaporishia and Dniepro (and Donetsk) if Ukraine wants to keep losing. Kherson, Odessa, Karkiv if Ukraine really insists. They have other territories they are willing to trade to facilitate important liberations without having to destroy what they liberate. At any rate, the pace of Russian advance has increased in last year, and increased again in last months. It is far higher than the 3.5 year average of the SMO.
They’ve offered conditions to stop, and to not even start, since well before 2022.
Russia moved to take Crimea only after the Ukranian govt was couped by the USA, because there’s a Russian naval base on the Crimean peninsula
being surprised by this is like saying the USA wouldn’t invade South Korea (or any of the 100s of states with US bases) if their govt was couped by another government
as always, you’re more patient than I, comrade, I respect you immensely
Yep, when it comes to Russia liberals start thinking about their actions, past, present, and future, in terms of how evil they are, rather than as another country. It’s always too weak yet too strong, always capable of steering foreign elections and taking on all of Europe but also about to collapse, etc. It’s tiring, because after the dust settles the liberal cope will always be that NATO didn’t support Ukraine enough for them to win, which will always be an unfalsifiable hypothesis.
And thanks, I appreciate it comrade!
Their goalposts have moved. Originally they attacked on all fronts including the capital and expected to topple Ukraine within a week.
Their goalposts haven’t moved, their strategy was to open with shock and awe and then push for protracted war, taking advantage of surprise. They didn’t expect to topple Ukraine in a week, that’s largely a misquote from the early 2010s.
Russia withdrew from Kyiv because they were fooled into thinking they got a peace deal.
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆Russia is literally fighting all of NATO here.
at least you know thy self
DiplomjodlerRussia has had its ass kicked with western hand-me-downs. Once they roll out the real kit, the whole thing will be over within days.
And by had its ass kicked you mean defeated everything NATO could throw at it for the past 3 years.
Russia is winning now, and hasn’t fielded the “real kit” either. NATO just does not have the productive capacity to field a long term war. I’m not sure why warmongers like yourself keep thinking there’s going to be a grand turning point, in a decade when we look back on this event I fear the warmongers will say they knew the outcome all along.
Because it can’t win a short-term war unless it goes nuclear, and then everyone loses.
Because it doesn’t have the power to take down an industrialized nuclear power like Russia in a short term war. I don’t see what you’re imagining here.
Because western countries do not have the industrial capacity for a long-term war nor the ability to topple a country as large as Russia in the short term.