herseycokguzelolacakAlmost 100,000 young men flee Ukraine in two months
So what happens when Ukraine loses? Are we at war with Russia then?
Cowbee [he/they]NATO can’t field an actual war against Russia, NATO countries don’t have the industrial capacity to do so. NATO has big scary tools, but not many of them, and in a protracted war where the industrial power wins Russia would win out. It would be very bloody, long, and NATO would lose, so it’s unlikely that there will be all-out war.
Russia can’t even beat ukraine.
They are steadily achieving all of their stated objectives for the SMO. Russia isn’t trying to do a Marvel-style total destruction of Ukraine like you see in hollywood depictions of war.
“steadily” as in… they complete one every couple of years? How long until they’re done? 10-20-30 years? They started this in 2014 and 11 years later they’ve accomplished next to nothing beyond creating a pile of bodies.
If germany took this long to take poland it probably wouldn’t have been world war at all.
The SMO started in 2022. In 2014, after the western-backed Euromaidan coup, Crimea was annexed but then there were multiple attempts to resolve things peacefully, called the Minsk Agreements, which Kiev broke both times. In 2014, Donetsk and Luhansk seceded from the new far-right led Ukraine, fastforward to 2022 after a decade of fighting and Russia agrees to go in and resolve things by force.
Since 2022, Russia has steadily been gaining more and more territory, and has nearly completely taken the four oblasts they declared as their targets for annexation. Ukraine has slowly but steadily been losing ground, and NATO has proven to be incapable of matching Russian industrial output. Russia isn’t trying to do a Blitzkreig, they are going carefully to fully demillitarize Ukraine and prevent casualties on their own end. They have the industrial capacity to field a protracted war, so they are playing to their advantage.
I read a few articles that said at russias current pace it would take them a hundred years to take Ukraine.
They aren’t trying to take Ukraine, though, and they can progress faster as frontlines are broken through. Pokrovsk, as an example, is currently encircled by Russian forces and will probably be abandoned by Kiev soon, or a large-scale siege will occur.
Whether you’re pro-Ukrainian or not, it’s important to recognize that Ukraine is steadily losing ground and has far less staying power in a protracted war than Russia does. Russia’s advancing slowly and basically forcing a long-term war, which works in their favor.
Shame Russia is doing so poorly after so long and with so many casualties. Plus their own economy is in the shitter. Having to import oil and gas now since their refineries seem to always be on fire. And pick up soldiers from Africa and Indonesia and let’s not forget North Korea.
Ukraine will fight to the last man
Russia is achieving its objectives, it’s economy is strengthened by trade with BRICS, and the damage on refineries has been minimal. Ukraine doesn’t want to fight to the last man, support for the war is waning and forced conscription is already in place. The fact that Russia has volunteers from the DPRK, Cuba, etc doesn’t mean they are losing, Ukraine has volunteers from western countries as well.
I hope the Ukrainian people can be free from this war soon, and that means surrender now. I don’t share your bloodlust.
I really doubt 10,000 NATO troops would make any tangible difference besides escalation from Russia’s side. The troops from the DPRK were largely sent to honor the defense agreement and to get troop training in Kursk, which was successful for the DPRK.
Th only way Russia can “escalate” is nukes or more strikes at civilian targets. They don’t have a secret reserve of highly trained and experienced troops they could magically send to win the war
Russia has tools like Oreshnik and T-90s that they aren’t fielding. There’s a lot of ways the war can escalate without relying on nukes or civilian targets.
Why won’t they field their best stuff and win the war quickly?
Because that’s not how economies of war work. Russia doesn’t need to waste their best equipment when they are doing well with their current equipment, they just need to gradually proceed as they are to minimize their own casualties. Avoiding mines, encircling strongholds before taking them, etc wouldn’t make any sense to field the best stuff that also costs the most to replace.