Almost 100,000 young men flee Ukraine in two months

https://lemmy.ml/post/38265004

Almost 100,000 young men flee Ukraine in two months - Lemmy

Lemmy

So what happens when Ukraine loses? Are we at war with Russia then?
NATO can’t field an actual war against Russia, NATO countries don’t have the industrial capacity to do so. NATO has big scary tools, but not many of them, and in a protracted war where the industrial power wins Russia would win out. It would be very bloody, long, and NATO would lose, so it’s unlikely that there will be all-out war.
Russia can’t even beat ukraine.
They are steadily achieving all of their stated objectives for the SMO. Russia isn’t trying to do a Marvel-style total destruction of Ukraine like you see in hollywood depictions of war.

“steadily” as in… they complete one every couple of years? How long until they’re done? 10-20-30 years? They started this in 2014 and 11 years later they’ve accomplished next to nothing beyond creating a pile of bodies.

If germany took this long to take poland it probably wouldn’t have been world war at all.

The SMO started in 2022. In 2014, after the western-backed Euromaidan coup, Crimea was annexed but then there were multiple attempts to resolve things peacefully, called the Minsk Agreements, which Kiev broke both times. In 2014, Donetsk and Luhansk seceded from the new far-right led Ukraine, fastforward to 2022 after a decade of fighting and Russia agrees to go in and resolve things by force.

Since 2022, Russia has steadily been gaining more and more territory, and has nearly completely taken the four oblasts they declared as their targets for annexation. Ukraine has slowly but steadily been losing ground, and NATO has proven to be incapable of matching Russian industrial output. Russia isn’t trying to do a Blitzkreig, they are going carefully to fully demillitarize Ukraine and prevent casualties on their own end. They have the industrial capacity to field a protracted war, so they are playing to their advantage.

I read a few articles that said at russias current pace it would take them a hundred years to take Ukraine.

They aren’t trying to take Ukraine, though, and they can progress faster as frontlines are broken through. Pokrovsk, as an example, is currently encircled by Russian forces and will probably be abandoned by Kiev soon, or a large-scale siege will occur.

Whether you’re pro-Ukrainian or not, it’s important to recognize that Ukraine is steadily losing ground and has far less staying power in a protracted war than Russia does. Russia’s advancing slowly and basically forcing a long-term war, which works in their favor.

Shame Russia is doing so poorly after so long and with so many casualties. Plus their own economy is in the shitter. Having to import oil and gas now since their refineries seem to always be on fire. And pick up soldiers from Africa and Indonesia and let’s not forget North Korea.

Ukraine will fight to the last man

Russia is achieving its objectives, it’s economy is strengthened by trade with BRICS, and the damage on refineries has been minimal. Ukraine doesn’t want to fight to the last man, support for the war is waning and forced conscription is already in place. The fact that Russia has volunteers from the DPRK, Cuba, etc doesn’t mean they are losing, Ukraine has volunteers from western countries as well.

I hope the Ukrainian people can be free from this war soon, and that means surrender now. I don’t share your bloodlust.

Bloodlust lol.

The war can be over if Russia gets the fuck out. Ukraine will fight to the bitter end. Absolutely. They do not, categorically and historically, want to be under Russian rule. And that rings true for pretty much every ex-Soviet nation.

No, there is no fantasy universe where Russia just turns around and stops when they are winning the war. Ukrainians do not want to be sacrificed for foreign profits, and are deserting in huge numbers (see the subject of this post). The far-right nationalist movements in ex-soviet states are temporary, in the long run there will be a return to socialism. There was no “Russian rule” in the USSR.
I think you are in a fantasy world.
In what way?
Just from everything you’ve said
So you don’t really have a point, just ad hominem.
Neither do you
I absolutely have given many points here and never once resorted to ad hominem.

By all means clarify your points.

Your position though is clearly biased against Ukraine, given the instance you’re positing form.

I’m biased in that I’m a communist, sure, but my methods of analysis focus on material reality, not marvel-esque ideas of Russia just turning around and walking away right as it’s clear they are winning.
Not really winning as I’ve mentioned before. They’ve barely gained any ground this year.
They are steadily gaining ground, and Ukraine can’t stop Russia. Russia can go as slowly as they like to prevent casualties, they aren’t doing a suicidal blitzkreig.
Ukraine can stop Russia. By continuing to stop them. One nation against the “mightiest” and largest nation on earth and in doing so proving that they (Russia) are in fact a paper dragon resting on their laurels and former glory.
Ukraine is losing, they aren’t stopping Russia. Right now, Pokrovsk is encircled and about to fall to Russia. It is in Ukraine’s best interests to concede and stop the bloodshed.

Ok so if they concede and then Russia continues…what then. Will you change your tune? Or just continue to parrot the propaganda?

Russia is as interested in stopping at your imaginary line as Israel is.

If Ukraine concedes, why would Russia continue? Why do you compare them with a genocidal settler-colony that needs to expand to continue their settler-colonial project?

Why would Russia continue?

Hmm why would Russia continue. Oof you got me there. I have no idea. Why would they continue?

I mean given their peaceful history for the last 20 years of not attacking and expanding their borders, I can totally see why you’d think they would stop completely on the imaginary line.

I mean they totally stopped after Moldova, Georgia and Crimea.

This isn’t a marvel-esque situation where an invading force has spent 4 years gaining ground and checks notes suddenly stops.

So you don’t actually have a reason, just that they’re Russian?