Mastodawn

AndreaCPowers Oct 14

Cait the Proud Trans Woman

Okay, a promised infodump.

So, the war on Ukraine. By Russia. To be utterly clear from the beginning about whose choice this was.

Ukraine has fought this war with an incredible application of sheer brainpower: innovation after innovation, new tactics, new technology, homemade weapons, incredible things.

And they haven't just fired them off randomly to just cause Russian deaths.

They've actually built an incredible strategy based on turning the Russian myth of invincibility upside down.

So first I need to explain that myth, where it comes from, and why it's a mythmaking exercise, and not at all what it's sold as.

First, then, we need to look at Napoleon Bonaparte. The first one.

When he invaced Russia, in 1812, he did so from a start line more or less in modern Poland. He gathered 600,000 troops, from several forcibly allied nations. And off the went to take Moscow. So they marched and they marched, and as they marched, the summer passed, and autumn came. By this time their supply lines were literally thousands of km in length. In a time with no railroads or air transport, that was a HUGE distance. Everything that moved moved by horsepower, or mulepower.

The Russians didn't stand and fight. They fought delaying actions, while their troops destroyed supplies, broke down shelters, and basically scorched the earth for the incoming French armies.

This meant that they couldn't forage from the countryside, as had been Napoleon's innovation earlier in the Napoleonic wars. His men would march much more quickly than other troops, and did so spread out enough to be able to feed themselves by basically taking everything the nearest peasants had. Ruining those people's existence, of course, but keeping themselves fed.

In Russia, this was no longer possible. All supplies had to be brought a couple of thousand km to the front, a wagonload at a time.

1/10

Cait the Proud Trans Woman Oct 13

2/10

Right. The French are now nearing their goal. Moscow is on the horizon. They face the Russians at Borodino, in a huge, chaotic battle, and really, neither side wins a victory. Both sides claimed it, but it wasn't clear for either side.

France didn't proceed, but the Russians didn't break them either.

So now it's late autumn, and the Russians now call on their long-time ally, General Moroz. Moroz is "frost" in Russian.

Meaning, the Russian winter arrived. The French, had Moscow. But they had no supplies getting in, and the Russian government had pulled out. Left the empty city to the French. Who could do nothing with it of value.

Napoleon paused. For several weeks, as I recall, he vacillated. By the time he figured out that retreat was called for, it was too late. Winter had arrived.

Now they had to make that 2000-lm+ trek back to their start line, only this time with Russian Cossack cavalry harrying their every move, picking off stragglers, and generally pushing them to keep moving. People started to die in the cold, and of lack of supplies. They were strarving.

On and on the retreat went, more haggard every day, until a meagre total of 60,000 men struggled back to Poland and out of Russia. Napoleon had been defeated; the Russian myth of invincibility was born.

The crucial part of this myth: they didn't talk about the fact that it had only been possible because they were defending the whole time. They retreated, trading land for time, luring the French to go too far, and let the winter sort them out along with the partisan activity crushing their supply lines, keeping their troops awake all night, and things like that.

All in all, a miserable time for the Emperor of France.

Fast forward 130 years. 1941, June 22.

Russia is hit with a "surprise" invasion by their nominal allies, the Germans.

Cait the Proud Trans Woman Oct 13

3/10

1941, then. The Germans invade. A brutal invasion, murderous, civilians butchered, horrific scenes. No quarter given on either side. Initially, the invasion proceeds relatively well for the Germans, but as the summer wore on, their progress was slowed, until they found themselves in the same spot as Napoleon. They even fought a major battle on more or less the same ground as the French and Russians had in 1812 (Borodino).

And again, the Germans stalled, as the French had, when the weather turned as they got close to Moscow.

General Moroz awoke, and began to drive them back, starving and freezing.

This was the high tide point for Germany in the east: they'd never get here again.

Huge sacrifice by the Soviets and some clever manoeuvres meant that the German army at Stalingrad (modern Volgograd) was surrounded, and under Hitler's stupid "no retreat" orders, were eventually starved into submission, the 6th Army being captured in tatters.

Back started the movement, with the Soviets pressing hard all the way. All the way back to Berlin, in the end, where the Soviets eventually raised their flag over the Reichstag.

Once again, the myth of invincibility was given a boost in Russian culture. Leaving aside the contributions of the various other Soviet republics, like Ukraine especially, the Russian mythmaking machine went into overdrive, coming to the conclusion that they had won the war.

Now that can be argued, but it's got a degree of truth. However, the contributions of a massive invasion to create a second front for the Germans definitely played a big part (that'd be your D-Day).

And there we are. The myth is complete. The Soviets/Russians are invincible. They threw back Napoleon, they threw back Hitler, nothing could stop them, clearly.

Seeing the issue yet? The invincibility was solely on defence, but it grew to be all-encompassing.

Cait the Proud Trans Woman Oct 13

4/10

Right. Now forward to Russia, post-Soviet collapse. Putin eventually takes over, and in the service of his growing authoritarian regime, he builds up the myth of invincibility. Russia is destined to be an imperial superpower! Look how we threw back the invaders, twice, to their destruction!

So when Putin starts the open warfare in Ukraine (remembering he’d seized Crimea many years earlier, and the Little Green Men pseudo-invasion of the Donbas and Luhansk regions of Ukraine), he proclaimed that it would be done in three days. They put together a pretty slapdash plan, involving a push on two major fronts: one from Donbas/Luhansk, one towards Kyiv itself, including airborne troops landing at the airport to try and seize it.

Ukraine threw them back from there, pushed right back over the border near Kyiv, and eventually retaking Kharkiv and some other parts. Then the war ground to a more or less halt. The Russians couldn’t push forward any other way than slow, grinding assaults, pouring in men and machines as fast as they could to try and overwhelm the Ukrainian defence.

They managed to make slow, very slow, progress, until even that petered out. Three and a half years into the open phase of the war, they were stalled.

Which is when Ukraine got their strategy working for real.

They had been building up their ability to strike behind the Russian lines, while maintaining the front line as a stalemate. Supply lines were hit, reorg and rest areas were hit, railway lines, junctions, anything they could reach, to push the Russian supply lines to be longer. Frustrated by the restrictions on deep strikes by their weapons providers in the West, they began building their own deep strike assets.

Cait the Proud Trans Woman Oct 13

5/10

And so the war continued, no movement at all on the front lines, just endless meat-assaults by the Russians that tried to overwhelm the local troop concentrations with sheer numbers of targets, thinking some of them surely had to get through and damage the defenders. Ukraine calmly defended, retreating when absolutely necessary, preserving their forces as much as possible.

The strikes behind the lines got farther and farther behind the lines. The supply lines for Russian were now becoming unwieldy. And where Putin had tried desperately to insulate the Russian public from the war, here it was showing up on their doorsteps. Closer and closer to the industrial heartland.

Then a shift: the Ukrainians start hitting oil infrastructure. This meant they’d knock down a refinery, then a different one hundreds of km away, forcing the Russian engineering repair teams to be constantly on the move, catching up with the ongoing damage by Ukrainian strikes.

Supplies for those repairs began to dwindle, as the sanctions bit harder. Slowly, the Russian capacity to refine oil began to collapse. Recently, as much as 40% of the refining capacity was offline at once. That has two effects on Russia.

1) They can't refine oil for the whole domestic economy as much as they need.

2) Since the Ukrainians were also hitting export facilities, they couldn't as easily sell their oil, the only real method they had left of bringing in currency they could buy sanctions-busting equipment with.

The war has been extremely expensive for Russia. It has nearly wiped out their foreign currency reserves (built up by Putin over several years), and they're now financing the war by selling "bonds" to Russian banks, which are not allowed to refuse to buy them.

These bonds are being priced right now at 16% interest and up. That's a HUGE number.

Cait the Proud Trans Woman Oct 13

6/10

Okay. We're nearly there.

As the restrictions on deep strikes are loosened, Ukraine also strikes airfield after airfield, forcing the Russians to stage their aircraft further and further from the front lines. See what I mean about artificially extending Russia's supply lines?

With the reduced refining capacity, and the longer flights, the Russian air force is largely neutered at this poiint.

Also, importantly, gas shortages are now affecting the whole country, right back to the place they really didn't want them to affect: Moscow and Piter.

The Russian civilians are by now getting a taste of war on their doorstep, and they're not loving it. Maybe this Special Military Operation isn't quite as automatic a victory as they'd been told?

Putin ramps up oppression. Cuts down Internet access. Bans apps that aren't Russian-made. Some can still use them, but it's a big blow to public confidence.

It's still quiet on the home front, because Russia's regime is nothing if not brutal in its repression of dissent. But it's a different kind of quiet. A waiting quiet.

It's becoming harder and harder to find new bodies to feed into the grinder. Russia can no longer afford to offer huge signing bonuses (many of which never get paid, through bureaucratic dodges and such). Local police begin sweeping up anyone they can conceivably pin a petty crime on, the punishment for which is either Siberia or Ukraine.

Meanwhile, they've fully converted to a war economy. No civilian goods are being made, basically; all production goes to war materiel. A false dawn appears economically: the rise of military spending boosts a sick economy. But it's not productive spending: it's lliterally blowing your money up by the billions. Trillions in rubles.

The economy is falling apart. They can't cook the books anymore to hide it.

Cait the Proud Trans Woman Oct 13

7/10

Right, so we're more or less up to date with where it is now.

Why do I think it will end soon?

Because the money has run out. They're using increasingly extreme measures to bolster the war chest, snaking cash from oligarchs to "show their patriotism". Forcing banks to turn over their deposits to the regime. Customers' money.

Obviously, this cannot continue forever.

We are now in a spot where Russia cannot move frorward. But they can't retreat, either, because Putin will order executions of people who take even one step back (shades of Hitler, huh?).

Putin, meanwhile, is well aware that if he loses the war, or accepts a ceasefire or worse a peace deal that doesn't give him control of Ukraine, he's finished. He'll be deposed or betrayed by someone with enough force to make it stick, and he'll end up either dead or fleeing the country to somewhere he can be safe. Probably the Gulf States. Where he can live in peace with his vast hoard of stolen Russian money. Because would you give odds that he's let all those oligarchs plunder the treasury without getting some of the action himself? That he's willing to let oligarchs have more money than he gets?

No way. I feel confident in suggesting he's squirreled away amounts that make any two or three oligarchs pale in comparison.

So they can't move forward. Can't move back. Can't stop the Ukrainians' relentless strikes on their oil infrastructure. With the recent addition of real-time satellite intel from the US about Russia's back areas, Ukraine have become even more effective at avoiding the sparse remaining air defences.

The Ukrainians, then, with sheer brilliance, have manufactured the classic Russian defence strategy, *without* trading a couple of thousand km of their land in doing it.

Cait the Proud Trans Woman Oct 13

8/10

Instead of retreating to let them extend their own lines, Ukraine did it for them.

Because, crucially, this time? Russia’s not defending. It’s the invader. The myth of invincibility was built on being clever about defence.

So things are very bad now. Gas shortages are affecting the front lines too now, and winter is coming. General Moroz has switched sides. The Russian troops are facing an oncoming winter without fuel to keep them from freezing, or food to keep them from starving, without reinforcements that aren’t coming, without ammunition or armoured vehicles (far too vulnerable to Ukrainian drone advances).

Soon, they won’t be getting paid at all. Or fed. Or given ammo. Or heat. Or medical supplies for their neglected wounded.

These conditions are ripe for collapsing morale, and eventually, collapsing lines, as the troops begin to stream away, or surrender in large numbers to avoid starving or freezing.

That’s why I say it’s maybe three or four months out. That’s the length of the winter. I don’t believe they’re going to be able to maintain a viable fighting force on the front lines by the time that winter ends. So sometime before then, and it may be very sudden, things will break. And the rearguard troops can shoot as many AWOL troops as they can, but they’re not going to stop it.

That’s my case. I’ve been noodling at this for months, trying to see a way the Russians can get out of the inevitable end that appears to be coming, and I can’t see one. There’s a Ukrainian vice around their metaphorical nuts, and it’s cranking tighter and tighter.

@oldladyplays
Another thing about General Moroz and defence vs offense is that, unlike the French and the Germans, Ukrainians would be generally familiar with local winter conditions

@sabik Certainly, the Finnish demonstrated the power of that knowledge, admirably.

Keith Mann Oct 13

@wesdym @sabik Indeed. Finland may be the best historical parallel for Ukraine. But you'll notice that Vyborg is part of Russia. In other words, a peace deal in which Ukraine loses territory can't be ruled out.

@keithmann @wesdym
Peace deals negotiated without including all the belligerents are pretty much traditional in that part of the world, aren't they

@keithmann @wesdym @sabik
Yeah I reckon that depends on whether regime change and chaos happens in Russia when it's clear they've lost. If it does, there's a decent chance for Ukraine to get everything back including Crimea. Otherwise, they'll likely have to settle for less like the Finns.

Hippo 🍉Oct 14

@sabik @oldladyplays maybe it'll turn out that General Moroz never loved Russians, but just hated invaders

Cat West Oct 27

@oldladyplays and as I recall, they invaded Ukraine during the “mud” season (thaw) and lost most of their heavy equipment by being bogged down, tailgating into a solid stream which Ukraine took advantage of and bombed the living snot out of them, and picked them off as they tried to flee their armored vehicles. Russia looked stupid then. Worse when the conditions were revealed. Crocs instead of boots.

Cait the Proud Trans Woman Oct 13

9/10

It feels like a military inevitability at this point. That the Russian troops are near to break point, and some small impetus can push them over the line into a rabble fleeing the war, instead of a formed force.

The Ukrainians won’t be able to just sweep forward and take their land back, of course. The Russians have been flattening everything between the Russian border and the front lines, building minefields, and all kinds of nastiness. It will take time for Ukraine to carefully move forward and occupy the abandoned Russian positions, and more time to push the borders back where they started ten or more years ago.

There. That’s it. That’s my entire thesis here.

I believe the final blow will be when Europe finally seizes the money frozen in European banks that is nominally Russian. That 300 billion will become, I expect, the Rebuilding Fund for the start of Ukraine’s return to normalcy.

And make no mistake. They had help in supplied weapons to be sure. That helped them stabilize the lines, and keep the Russians held still. Then they kicked their brain trust into gear, and started flat-out outthinking the Russians.

This is, in the end, going to be a Ukrainian victory. Helped by allies, to be sure, but they’re the ones who have paid in blood and lives and ruined cities, and they’re the ones who I believe deserve the credit for the victory I see them compiling. This war will be studied endlessly for its tactical innovations, AND strategic innovations, showing ways in which a smart smaller country can ju-jitsu a much larger country into losing itself the war it started.

Cait the Proud Trans Woman Oct 13

10/10

In the end, Ukraine is now one of the predominantly skilled military forces in Europe. They will make a lot of money after the war, sending their troops to teach the rest of NATO to fight the Ukrainian way.

And Russia? Well, Russia may well end up breaking apart. Independence movements are making unusual amounts of noise in the East, Siberia and several other regions as well. And Russia no longer has the troops to quell those movements effectively. Or the gas to get them there. Or the money to pay them.

It might well be that the Russian empire completely vanishes in a puff of Putin’s hubris.

Happy to hear critiques. I can be wrong about things, I concede. These are predictions, based on the progress of the situation, and what information I’ve been able to gather from various sources. Obviously, predictions are only as good as they turn out to be accurate.

So maybe I will look like a fool in four months, when Russia busts a move and suddenly rushes forward?

But I’m pretty confident that won’t be the case.

Fin.

@oldladyplays I hope you're right! That's one of the more plausibly optimistic things I've read in some time 💜

downbeatdan Oct 13

@oldladyplays Thread! Well written, good thesis, hope you're correct.

cwicseolfor Oct 13

@oldladyplays May it be so.

@oldladyplays very interesting thread, thank you very much. I share your hope, but I fear it won't be that fast either, because of China's financial (and, for what it matters, NK's personnel) contribution to Russia's war efforts.

dr2chase Oct 13

@oblomov @oldladyplays I can well imagine a lot of war-extending help from China priced very unfavorably to Moscow. I tried to figure out from a map if a very cynical Putin could trade away land disproportionately filled with uncooperative rabble, but it did not look like that was possible.

Gabriele L.Oct 13

@oldladyplays Nice fiction you envisioned here! There are few issues with it. The sporadic hits Ukraine inflicted on Russian oil refineries impacted the output in a symbolic way, and data shows the oil production even ramped up significantly in the last months.

Gabriele L.Oct 13

@oldladyplays Second of all, money is fake, and is even more fake in war economies, the only important thing is production capabilities and logistics, and these are still intact. Lay down the copium 🙂

Alicja (and Artemida and Mara, see bio)Oct 13

I agree, and I'll add two things that I think are important.

1) Russian winter is HARSH. So's Ukrainian winter, to a lesser degree. Westerners do not fully appreciate just how harsh it is. Neither did Napoleon, in his time. France has a mild climate, what with Europe being surrounded by two large bodies of water. Brilliant as he was, Napoleon had never fought a war in those conditions.
2) Napoleon was fighting everyone. He was politically isolated and suffering from continued embargoes and an alliance after alliance forged against him. That's why he decided to attack Russia. France had to expand or suffer slow loss of its power and influence. Russia is, crucially, similarly isolated now. They have an OK relationship with India and a quietly cordial relationship with China. But China has mastered, for the last few thousand years, the art of playing the long game. And they will maintain polite relations with Russia for only as long as it suits them. And they will not actively HELP them, including economically. They have their own stuff to deal with, and while Russia falling apart doesn't advance China's interests, it's also not a worthwhile investment for them to keep the corpse of the country trudging along.

Simply put, Russia is alone. Just like Napoleon, once. Just like Hitler, once. Funny how that happens.

And Napoleon was a military genius which Putin (or any of his highest-ranked people) isn't, to put it mildly. Nazi Germany was an industrial powerhouse which Russia has not been in a while.

Alicja (and Artemida and Mara, see bio)Oct 13

Like, I probably don't need to tell it to a Canadian, but for the benefit of anyone else reading:

I've once read snippets of an account written by a veteran of Napoleon's wars. He described the march across Russia and said that once in a while, a soldier would just keel over in the middle of walking and be dead by the time his comrades swiftly stripped him of his boots. And those soldiers just falling down and immediately dying from the combined fatigue and cold was apparently just a common, almost rhythmic occurrence.

General Winter has *always* been Russia's greatest asset.

Cat West Oct 27

@oddtail @oldladyplays indeed— until it is their supply lines that are extended and their morale that is depressed. Winter is the enemy of the invader.

Lona Theartlav Oct 13

@oldladyplays Lovely, and sounds on point.

Some notes and nuggets of context.

The "few years" of the foreign currency reserves is about two decades.
Starting as the stabilization fund of russia, created in the early 00s to insulate the economy from the volatility of oil prices and prevent the repeat of the epic crash of 1998, it grew into a general welfare and economy buffer.
Peaking at $200 billion by the time the war started, it's down to a quarter of that by now, and that's officially.
An entire generation of wealth squandered.

On finding the bodies, they are still reluctant to overtly conscript people from the metropole area, but they've been building tools to make it easier country wide.
One of such tools is a digital conscription registry, automating conscription avoidance sanctions and making the usual "i never received no summons, chief" method of draft dodging much harder to pull off.
And it's working. How do we know it is? Because the sign in bonuses to join the army have dropped massively soon after it went into effect.

The limits on internet access remain largely a joke. Russia is no China, it's firewall is a "do not enter" sign with no fence around it.
It's pretty easy to work around it. Even my elderly parents figured out how.
Thing is, they use it to watch youtube (which got plenty of Z content on it, despite being banned. Funny how that works), rather than look for any alternative information.
The killer is the TV, yapping in the background their every waking hour.

They have all the capability and none of the desire to seek any sort of truth, despite once priding themselves, not without merit, on their ability to find it.
The sad part about it is the brain drain. Russia used to be world class in IT 15 years ago. It could have become it's main export instead of oil.
Instead, all of that got squandered, services starting to fall apart and lag behind, most experts are dead or fled.
So much wasted potential.

@theartlav @oldladyplays

Abslutely! Russia could have been a much better country, a net positive in the world, and a decent place to live, instead of what it is. Not that it's unique in that tragedy, of course.

Raven667 Oct 13

@Njord @theartlav @oldladyplays That is a real significant tragedy that always makes me sad when I read news or history and know that things don't have to be horrible, and that they can stop being horrible whenever leaders get over their ego and choose to stop doing stupid self-destructive shit, which sometimes seems impossible. Maybe we need an army of ambassador/therapists to help world leaders deal with their unresolved personal problems so they can work together like normal people for the betterment of all.

Ludovic :Firefox: :FreeBSD:Oct 13

@oldladyplays Interesting analysis. Thank you.

I don't see anything on either Afghanistan nor the first Chechen war, any reasons for that?

@oldladyplays I would offer that size comparisons are misleading. Russia is PHYSICALLY larger, and has more people, though you've already noted that their sheer size is its own liability for anyone who must traverse it or carry anything over it. But more than that, Ukraine is a modern, well-developed country, while most of Russia is, well, NOT. Most of it's empty, undeveloped land.

/more-2

@oldladyplays 2/ More, what we call 'Russia' is not really a 'country' in the Western sense, but more of a 19th-century empire that's held on despite itself, and relying heavily on one or two much smaller polities (Russia proper) forcibly dominating many more who'd prefer otherwise. 'Russia' is a collection of around 85 distinct entities, the majority of which don't really back Russian priorities.

серафими многоꙮчитїи Oct 13

@oldladyplays (as I hit reply I see you are on an appropriate domain)

I hope your analysis is right, and we can see fewer people dying by year's end. I have heard reports from folks in Russia that people actually do feel like they're at war (as opposed to just seeing it on telly). Airports getting shut down by drones is tangible to people who aren't in the army.

The big question is "what then"? Current-day Russia collapsing into republics is mostly going to result in mini-Putins and misery, plus random nuclear wandering. We don't have the diplomatic ability to promote democracy in any new stans other than the usual failing capitalist model which dictators always seem oddly prepared to accept.

Cait the Proud Trans Woman Oct 13

Yes, well-spotted. I didn't mention what comes next. Because I genuinely don't know. I know some basics: when states collapse, the most organised group tends to take over (see Bolsheviks, Nazis, et c., et c.).

I have NO IDEA what comes next. Pseudo-warlords, maybe? The local police structure has largely broken down in the east, so various oligarchs have been ginning up local vigilante gangs that are loyal to their paymasters. In effect, their own little paramilitaries. I could see each claiming a chunk of resources, before going into a ton of intrigue and infighting to grow their shares at the expense of one another.

And yes. Nukes. That's the very very scary part of all this. If the country comes apart, there's going to be no controlling access to the nukes. It'll be a free-for-all. And I have *no* idea how that ends, but it's not going to end *well* for anyone.

It's gonna be a scary time.

Throw in the likely collapse of the LLM bubble in the next year or two?

I honestly have no idea what that could bring to such a volatile situation. I wouldn't trust anyone who did think they knew what would happen. Way too many variables for human computation, I'd say.

Cat West Oct 27

@oldladyplays @djm62 I don’t see anyone being loyal to Putin as this thing comes down around their ears. Look what he did to those who were the closest to him, were the most ruthless for him, I’m thinking of Putin’s “Chef” who was utterly barbaric… and his plane fell out of the sky. That was the only one crazy enough to follow every order and even he lost the faith, and his life.

Dmitry Tantsur Oct 13

@djm62 @oldladyplays the collapsing part of this otherwise brilliant analysis is not really based in reality. What awaits Russia is probably some variation of North Korea: tightly locked, extremely poor, held together by brutality of the regime and aggressive propaganda. It may fall apart eventually, but it will take decades of stagnation and underpaying the security forces.

@creepy_owlet @djm62 @oldladyplays Possible, I guess, but I'm not sure NK is a good parallel.

The DPRK only has two land borders to deal with, one with China and one with the ROK. Neither have been a significant draw on their resources: China is notionally an ally, and the ROK border is of course frozen. Their military budget, except for the nuclear program, is essentially discretionary. So despite a lack of significant trade with anyone except China and the occasional other pariah state, they can keep the status quo going for a long time.

Russia is actively expending human and material resources in Ukraine in what looks like a really unsustainable way. That's a big difference.

Jean Helou ⌨️Oct 13

@oldladyplays you are completely ignoring the Russian nuclear weapons. What makes you certain they are irrelevant ? If Putin is desperate enough, why wouldn't he chose to take everyone out with him ?

Dmitry Tantsur Oct 13

@jhelou @oldladyplays the only reason Putin has not used nuclear weapons so far is because he realizes that the cost/benefit ratio is between bad and horrible. It won't change much if he loses Ukraine. Nuking Ukraine won't give him a victory but will most likely alienate China and the Global South. Nuking everyone.. he knows there won't be any Russia after that.

Cat West Oct 27

@jhelou @oldladyplays That would not be “winning”… it would be his suicide. And, those weapons are likely in bad shape from being neglected by those who were close to Putin and got the funding to maintain them, but instead, like the rest in charge of a corrupt state, pocketed it. My guess? They blow up on ignition. His top guys were defenestrated.

João Tiago Rebelo (NAFO J-121)Oct 13

@oldladyplays after reading the thread and the comments from other users brought up because of it, I say thank you! The hopeful, but reality based, analysis is refreshing when around here some TV channels still give airtime to what we call "Zenerals", retired military officers saying russia is a force to be reckoned with and that russian superiority is near unstoppable (even the ones that said Ukraine would fall in three days, that should be enough to discredit then, but no...).

notsoloud Oct 13

@oldladyplays
From your lips to God's ears.

It looks like Ukraine's biggest problem at the moment is lack of manpower. Drafting more troops is too unpopular to pass Parliament.

@remindme in 4 months

Remind Me Oct 13

@notsoloud Ok, I will remind you on Friday Feb 13, 2026 at 6:08 PM UTC.

Remind Me Feb 13

@notsoloud Here is your reminder!

notsoloud Feb 13

@oldladyplays
It might happen, but not yet. So far the clearest change is more takeovers of shadow fleet vessels and the blocking of starlink and telegram.

Ukrainian energy supplies have been hit, hurting them badly, but not destroying them.
@remindme in 6 months

Remind Me Feb 13

@notsoloud Ok, I will remind you on Thursday Aug 13, 2026 at 6:37 PM UTC.

@oldladyplays Thank you for the thread. I enjoyed reading that and hope you are right.

gkrnours Oct 13

@oldladyplays I have the impression France at least get more vocal about sending troops to ukraine and I wonder if it's because France military analyst are coming to the same conclusion and know is the time to reap some glory at a discount

Overdrawn at the Gravitas Bank Oct 13

Maybe I'm just reflexively pessimistic, but I wouldn't sell short Putin's ability to declare victory ('We never wanted that whole dumb country anyway!') and make it stick…not least because the oligarchs fear and distrust each other, and so would rather stick with the Devil they know. (…even if he doesn't have a giant, black, cat.)

@EmptySet @oldladyplays how could he declare victory without also retreating, though? He can't freeze the conflict on the current frontlines without Ukraine effectively agreeing to hand over their land, which they're not going to do. So he *has* to keep fighting.

Overdrawn at the Gravitas Bank Oct 13

@Flisty @oldladyplays

Do you think that as much effort as he would need to keep Donbas and Crimea but not trying for more could be sold to his public as something other than the Special Operation, 'which was a success'?

I guess my impulse is to assume that he can lie about what's really happening to and make it stick due to various parts fear and actual belief, based on what I've seen the current U.S. President do with less of both.

…but you likely would be a better judge than I.

@EmptySet @oldladyplays personally (with no knowledge to speak of) I think it would take a lot for Ukraine to accept him keeping those areas now, and so he would still be sending troops in and having to maintain a border war everywhere because there would be no way to stand anyone down along the entire front.

@oldladyplays Pretty solid analysis, at least to my untrained eye, but there are a couple of wrinkles that need looking at, one more likely than the other.
Russia has nukes, and Putin has nothing left to lose - Ukraine will be flattened for having the temerity to stand up to the aggressor, and other European targets will be hit, just to make sure we dont get any ideas.
Targets in China, India, Japan, and NK will also be hit, for pretty much the same reason.
Slightly less likely, Trump (or his replacement, not neccesarily Vance) could decide to deploy reinforcements, which would stabilise the Russian lines.
This would end up with US troops controlling vast swaths of Russian and Ukrainian territory, and you know Trump's backers are salivating st the possibilities.

Olivier Langella Oct 13

@oldladyplays
Thank you very much, that was very interesting. I'm very confident from the beginning about an Ukrainian victory (but I had no good explanation :( ). Too bad we didn't help them more than few weapons and strong words...
Your analyze seems very credible to me, hope it will be like that. I'm waiting for the next incredible news after :
- Moskva sank
- Blownup Crimea Bridge (3 times)

Olivier Langella Oct 13

@oldladyplays
- Very expensive airplanes radars downed
- Amazing attack on airfields with infiltrated drones
- 40% of oil production stopped
...
and new surprises to come I bet

Like you said, truly amazing how they keep fighting against all odds.

I feel sorry as a westerner for them, I hope they will have a great future in Europe.

Cat West Oct 27

@olangella @oldladyplays That drone infiltration was brilliant. Bond Movie brilliant. Have only seen clunky brute force on Russia’s part, but stunning brilliance, courage and tenacity on Ukraine’s side.

@oldladyplays great thread.

I hope you're right. Only time will tell.

Seán Fenian Oct 13

@oldladyplays Cait, this is a FREAKING EXCELLENT analysis which I am going to forward elsewhere in an, uh ... more restricted forum. Thank you for posting it.

@oldladyplays Thank you so much for that interesting and hope inspiring thread. I learnt so much!