@jexner @sundogplanets

Sorry for the delay in replying! Let’s be clear upfront: we can’t build a fully operational space elevator with today’s technology.

But history shows us that what seems impossible today can become reality tomorrow. When President John F. Kennedy set the goal of landing a man on the Moon in 1961, many thought it was a pipe dream. Yet less than a decade later, the Apollo program succeeded, proving that with determination, innovation, and investment, the impossible can be achieved. So, while ambitious, a space elevator is a plausible future project.

Trying to be as objective as I can, here’s a more nuanced take on feasibility — starting with economics. A space elevator would be expensive; estimates vary, but it’s safe to say it would be a multi-billion-dollar project. To put that in perspective: SoFi Stadium cost $4.9 billion, and the Apollo program cost about $203 billion (adjusted to 2015 dollars). Expert analyses estimate the cost of the first space elevator between $6 billion and $100 billion depending on design and infrastructure included. So financially, it’s ambitious but plausible, especially as a long-term infrastructure investment with transformative potential for space access and sustainable resource use.

The technical challenges are immense, but so are those of every large, unprecedented undertaking. Picture a tether anchored to a mobile ocean platform, gently swaying with the waves, while robotic climbers ascend and descend, carrying cargo and passengers to the stars.

Several organizations, including the International Space Elevator Consortium, are actively developing the technologies and infrastructure needed. While we’re far from the finish line, the potential benefits—significantly reduced launch costs, increased space access, and large-scale space-based solar power—are exciting.

A key technical hurdle is finding a material with sufficient tensile strength. Though it might sound counterintuitive, a space elevator is more like a suspension bridge to space than a giant tower. The concept evolved from building “bottom-up” to a “top-down” approach, where a geostationary satellite deploys a cable down to Earth. Currently, carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) are leading candidates for tether materials. For example, Shizuoka University in Japan is prototyping and testing high-tensile-strength materials in space. The key issues remain: producing suitable materials like carbon nanotubes at scale.

In conclusion, while we can’t build a fully operational space elevator today, overcoming the technical difficulties in the near future is possible. With continued advances in materials science, engineering, and technology, we may soon see the space elevator shift from futuristic fantasy to game-changing reality.

I’m no space engineering expert, so I welcome corrections and insights.
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References & Further Reading
- Edwards, Bradley C. “The Space Elevator.” https://nss.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/2000-Space-Elevator-NIAC-phase1.pdf
- Gao, Tianrui. “The Feasibility Analysis of a Space Elevator.” https://ijetch.org/2024/IJET-V16N4-1290.pdf
- International Space Elevator Consortium — Annual Studies https://www.isec.org/studies/#ApexAnchor

Recommended Videos
- Space Elevators: Strategies & Status — https://youtu.be/V0ju74IqW0A
- Clean Energy From Space? — https://youtu.be/iNqCAvL1T1Y
- Asteroid Mining — https://youtu.be/3-3DjxhGaUg
- Everyone is Wrong About Asteroid Mining — https://youtu.be/p3hlnL2JN8E

CC: @cy @isecdotorg @sorceressofmathematics @goodmirek @tiotasram @Ifrauding @Elrick_Winter @tiotasram @davidtheeviloverlord

#SpaceElevator #FutureTech #SpaceExploration #Innovation #ScienceFiction #Engineering #SpaceTravel #CarbonNanotubes #UHMWPE #FeasibilityStudy #SpaceAccess #SustainableTech #SpaceResearch #SpaceEngineering
#SpaceTechnology #SpaceEconomics #SpaceInnovation #SpaceDevelopment
#megaprojects #SpaceTower #Megastructure

@cy @debby @jexner @sundogplanets it's okay, as someone who has played Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri, I can inform you that we just need to spend some research points in "super-tensile solids" and then we'll be able to build the space elevator.

/s

Hey @cy

I like your revolutionary pessimism—and I really hope you like my evolutionary tech optimism too.

I understand your skepticism around space elevators, especially concerns about their accessibility and the materials needed for their construction.

Comparing Space Elevators to nuclear fusion is an interesting analogy, but it overlooks a key distinction: nuclear fusion is already completely feasible; the challenge lies in engineering a sustained fusion reaction. The feasibility of CNTs for space elevators is grounded in our current understanding of physical reality. Throughout history, many innovations have followed this pattern—from Leonardo da Vinci's observations of bird flight to the Wright brothers' first powered flight. These advancements were not just "great on paper"; they were feasible based on the physical principles knowen in their time. I see the incredible progress humanity has made and that this trend will continue into the future, with societal and technological progress working hand in hand.

The idea that a space elevator would be "only for the rich" and used primarily to deploy spy satellites is overly pessimistic. I know the world isn't perfect, but it's getting better. The device you're using to communicate here probably has superior computational power compared to the entire Apollo program. And obviously, you could afford the device—even if only half a century ago, the effort and resources of the richest nation on Earth were necessary. Don't you see the progress? I agree that the distribution of wealth should be more equitable, but from there to overlook that even if the arc of justice bends slowly, it still bends toward justice. The rich are not a universal "got you," as you seem to infer. Society is a complex system, just like the economy; complex systems are usually not understood by a single solution.

Let's consider the broader vision and potential democratizing effect of this technology. The industrial revolution brought many hardships but ultimately also made the abolition movement possible. Technological development may not be sufficient but is a necessary condition for social progress. The universe is a vast and abundant place, easily making scarcity obsolete if explored and accessed in a reasonable and ethical manner. Space elevators promise to drastically reduce the cost of sending payloads and people to orbit—potentially by factors of 50 to 100 compared to rockets. This cost reduction could make space access affordable for a much wider range of users, including researchers, educators, small businesses, NGOs, and developing nations.

Enabling large-scale infrastructure projects in space could be a big step toward a post-scarcity, utopian future for all of humanity, with abundant energy and resources. Solar power satellites that provide clean energy to Earth and abundant resources through asteroid mining would benefit all of humanity. The historical pattern of technological advancement shows that what starts as expensive and exclusive often becomes accessible over time.

We can imagine and work toward a future where technology serves the many, not just the few.