Daring Fireball
Matthew Belloni on the ‘Apple TV+ Experiment’
https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/03/21/belloni-apple-tv
Matthew Belloni on the ‘Apple TV+ Experiment’

Link to: https://puck.news/how-long-can-the-apple-tv-plus-experiment-sputter-on/?sharer=167184&token=1ff8c319cdac678ace91127c99abfc96

Daring Fireball
Mar 21, 2025 at 6:07pmDF Tootbot
Show threadNitMar 21, 2025

@daringfireball > I’d thinking TV+ would have less of a churn rate, not more.

It’s quantity not quality (TV+ quality is good). You can get TV+ for a few months, watch the good stuff and not need it for a year+.

Rivals have deeper catalogues, but even with them I watch what I want and cancel until I add a few things on my list. I’m always hopping. One subscription at a time, no need for multiple unless you’re devouring large amounts of media or have more money than sense.

Show threadNitMar 21, 2025

@daringfireball > They’re a measure twice, cut once company.

Except for Siri. That thing is mince meat by now. 🪚

Show threadJamesonMar 21, 2025
@daringfireball Hopefully it’s here to stay. It makes sense that there’s less loyalty right now, while they’re still building up a catalog. But the quality is there. They were the first streamer to win a Best Picture Oscar, despite Netflix’s desperate attempts. Not every show or movie is perfect, but their ratio is up there with HBO’s in its heyday, before all the mergers and nonsense.
Show threadloombot 3000Mar 21, 2025
@daringfireball maybe churn is artificially high because all new device purchasers get a free Apple TV subscription… and many prob churn out before they have to pay?
Show threadWesley EagonMar 21, 2025

@daringfireball In long run, big screen TV market contracts and personal wearable screens take over (Vision Pro). & this time,  will have a share of the market similar to the rest of their wearable products. TVs will no longer be commodity hardware. Vision Pro gives  an opportunity to leapfrog the entertainment industry.

What happens to the entertainment industry power dynamics when a streaming ( TV+) company also has control over the most popular TV set (that you wear on your face)?

Show threaddmitriidMar 21, 2025

@wlea1 @daringfireball

My TV set cost several times less, I can watch it with friends and family, and play a large catalog of games on it (also with friends and family).

Unlike the abandonware that is Vision Pro

Show threadWesley EagonMar 21, 2025

@dmitriid @daringfireball Over the long run, it will evolve into a compelling alternative to big screen TV sets. Think about where the price and capabilities of a device like Vision Pro looks like in 20 years

Also, I predict people will one day see 2D entertainment as we see black & white entertainment today

Show threaddmitriidMar 22, 2025

@wlea1 @daringfireball

And what is the basis of your belief? Everyone will be alone? Batteries will magically triple/quadruple their capacity? Physics will change?

Show threadFreediverXMar 22, 2025

@dmitriid @wlea1 @daringfireball
The battery challenge may take a while to resolve, but we’ve had exponential improvements over the last 20-30 years.

One small example, compare the AirPods with the first Bluetooth earbud Apple launched with the original iPhone.

The social aspect of tv watching is a more complex question. When I was a kid it was cool to have boom boxes and home stereo gear with powerful speakers. Today most people listen to music on earbuds or headphones most of the time.

Show threaddmitriidMar 22, 2025

@freediverx @wlea1 @daringfireball

The battery tech hasn't been exponential. It was barely linear until a few years back. And we've yet to see whether the current growth in energy density continues as is.

For many of the apparent advances in batteries it was a combination of miniaturization and increased power-efficiency of other components, and a few rather minor (comparatively) advances in the batteries themselves.

Show threadTed TodorovMar 22, 2025

@dmitriid @freediverx @wlea1 @daringfireball the thing that has been exponential in batteries has been their cost going down -- EV batteries are down to 1/10th of the 2008 (original iPhone era) price. https://www.batterytechonline.com/battery-manufacturing/the-90-drop-how-ev-battery-costs-plummeted-over-15-years

But while the Walkman/iPod era replaced boomboxes with headphones/earbuds I see no evidence of families watching TV with headphones on. Bigger speakers were replaced with smaller speakers, wired with wireless.

Show threadDelricMar 22, 2025
@dmitriid @wlea1 @daringfireball Imagine how dense one would have to be to call something that has active betas coming out as recently as 4 days ago, “abandoneware”. Oh wait we don’t need to imagine it, this troll just did. doh
Show threadJimmy CallinMar 21, 2025
@daringfireball The reason for the churn is that Apple lacks a Friends or The Office - an infinitely rewatchable comfort show.
Show threadDelricMar 22, 2025
@callin @daringfireball and for Paramount, all of Star Trek
Show threadPeter N LewisMar 22, 2025
@delric @callin @daringfireball absolutely agree. I sign up to TV+ for a couple months per year - catch up on the seasons of Foundation, Silo, For All Mankind and the rest, and then unsubscribe. I keep Netflix because while it is largely dross, there is an endless supply of it (which really I'd be better off not watching and doing something else).
Show threadFreediverXMar 22, 2025

@daringfireball

https://archive.is/Sd2O0

Show threadTed TodorovMar 22, 2025
@daringfireball Those of us who never cancel aTV+ may be like to those who never cancel Amazon Prime: we subscribe to it for a different reason: Amazon, free same day, next day package deliveries. Apple, Apple One: iCloud+ (would never cancel, for any reason), Apple Music (prefer it to Spotify), Apple News+ (for the New Yorker, WSJ, New York Magazine, The Atlantic subscriptions)
aTV+ brief, but now gone desirable feature - a handful of very good mainstream films rotating on a monthly basis
Show threadjoshhuntMar 22, 2025

@daringfireball Overall, I think more people are unsubscribing from streaming services once *their* shows ends, and then pick it back up for the new season.

Apple TV+ feels this the most because they have such a small back catalogue. They don't have 20 seasons of Greys Anatomy or 7 seasons of Parks and Rec.

Show threadjoshhuntMar 22, 2025
@daringfireball You can see Apple knows this the way it book ends series to keep people subscribed - Silo S2 ended and Severance starts right back up immediately.
Show threadMartin the paranoid androidMar 22, 2025
@daringfireball @gruber I notice you recently do something weird with parenthetical phrases and commas where you tend to separate the sentence into non-working pieces by not opening the parenthetical phrase correctly.
When you want that parenthetical comma, you need an opening comma as well. The one in front of which does not work for this. You need another one. #dftypo
Show threadMartin the paranoid androidMar 22, 2025
@daringfireball @gruber This was another such case. You would need one between that and unlike for this to work. #dftypo
Show threadJohn GruberMar 22, 2025
@DonSqueak Got em all, thanks. Comma usage noted. I think I've just been lazy.
Show threadAndy PetersMar 26, 2025
@daringfireball one thing I’d add here about Apple customers’ predicted “stickiness” / low churn. I also assume Apple customers are more savvy, not just in a technical sense but more broadly. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a substantially higher fraction of AppleTV customers who subscribe to the service for a couple of months, binge the shows they want to watch, then cancel for a year until their shows are available again.
Show threadAndy PetersMar 26, 2025
@daringfireball This probably feeds into the long on-ramp to profitability, which presumably includes the time it takes to build up a deep enough library that you can’t binge all the good stuff from the past year over a month or two.