Matthew Belloni on the ‘Apple TV+ Experiment’
https://daringfireball.net/linked/2025/03/21/belloni-apple-tv
Matthew Belloni on the ‘Apple TV+ Experiment’

Link to: https://puck.news/how-long-can-the-apple-tv-plus-experiment-sputter-on/?sharer=167184&token=1ff8c319cdac678ace91127c99abfc96

Daring Fireball

@daringfireball In long run, big screen TV market contracts and personal wearable screens take over (Vision Pro). & this time,  will have a share of the market similar to the rest of their wearable products. TVs will no longer be commodity hardware. Vision Pro gives  an opportunity to leapfrog the entertainment industry.

What happens to the entertainment industry power dynamics when a streaming ( TV+) company also has control over the most popular TV set (that you wear on your face)?

@wlea1 @daringfireball

My TV set cost several times less, I can watch it with friends and family, and play a large catalog of games on it (also with friends and family).

Unlike the abandonware that is Vision Pro

@dmitriid @daringfireball Over the long run, it will evolve into a compelling alternative to big screen TV sets. Think about where the price and capabilities of a device like Vision Pro looks like in 20 years

Also, I predict people will one day see 2D entertainment as we see black & white entertainment today

@wlea1 @daringfireball

And what is the basis of your belief? Everyone will be alone? Batteries will magically triple/quadruple their capacity? Physics will change?

@dmitriid @wlea1 @daringfireball
The battery challenge may take a while to resolve, but we’ve had exponential improvements over the last 20-30 years.

One small example, compare the AirPods with the first Bluetooth earbud Apple launched with the original iPhone.

The social aspect of tv watching is a more complex question. When I was a kid it was cool to have boom boxes and home stereo gear with powerful speakers. Today most people listen to music on earbuds or headphones most of the time.

@freediverx @wlea1 @daringfireball

The battery tech hasn't been exponential. It was barely linear until a few years back. And we've yet to see whether the current growth in energy density continues as is.

For many of the apparent advances in batteries it was a combination of miniaturization and increased power-efficiency of other components, and a few rather minor (comparatively) advances in the batteries themselves.

@dmitriid @freediverx @wlea1 @daringfireball the thing that has been exponential in batteries has been their cost going down -- EV batteries are down to 1/10th of the 2008 (original iPhone era) price. https://www.batterytechonline.com/battery-manufacturing/the-90-drop-how-ev-battery-costs-plummeted-over-15-years

But while the Walkman/iPod era replaced boomboxes with headphones/earbuds I see no evidence of families watching TV with headphones on. Bigger speakers were replaced with smaller speakers, wired with wireless.