This seems so science-fictiony that most people won't take it seriously. That would be a bad mistake.
Not only are we messing up the planet, we're also inadvertently shutting our door to space. When we're shut in, we're probably shut in for ever.
And when I say "we" are shutting that door, I mean mainly Musk.
https://robertvanwey.substack.com/p/the-imminence-of-the-destruction
An unchecked collisional cascade in low orbit would not shut down access to space.
It would simply make those orbits unusable for years or decades; until enough of the debris had fallen out of the sky.
That would be quite bad enough.
I keep making this point because the difference matters for things like GPS and weather satellites; as well as space exploration.
"A Grand Challenge
My friends, the simple truth is that we are wasting our precious time, resources, intellect, and passion. As a species we are just as aimless today as when our primitive ancestors first ventured out upon this earth.
Today I am proposing that for the first time in human history, we change that.
Radically.
More than any time in history, humanity needs a grand challenge. Not only to avert its extinction, but also to indelibly etch the common bond of mutual reliance and cooperation on current and future generations.
Fortunately, all of the forces that now seem to conspire against us can quickly be turned to our advantage.
For the first time in human history we actually possess technologies so advanced that any physical problem can potentially be solved.
And yet, I wonder, do we possess the will and wisdom to utilize them for our salvation instead of our destruction?
I propose that we find out.
So today I offer you a radical and stark choice between two future realities.
An aimless future of continued war and conflict, with all its accompanying suffering and death; or a limitless future dedicated to defeating suffering and death itself, with all its accompanying technological advancement and social evolution.
Yes indeed, I have a new plan, for all of you. A plan of hope. A plan of adventure. A plan of such extraordinary magnitude as to take the breath, and challenge the senses, of all who would consider it. A plan to bind our common people in hope, and finally free our conscience for noble purpose.
I propose that in the next three decades we at last end the scourge of human disease upon this Earth, and begin the inevitable adventure of humanity's migration beyond it.
We shall at last unlock the fundamental secrets of our biology so we may conquer any illness or defect at will, and we shall free ourselves from the bonds of our native home so we may evade global calamities, and begin the expansion of our species beyond this world.
No longer shall our survival be dependent upon the random and dispassionate forces of nature. No longer shall we quiver in anguish as we helplessly watch those we love suffer and die in agony from an endless list of human disease and dysfunction. No longer shall our globe be divided in constant turmoil and conflict while the hammer of fate hangs precariously balanced over all we know and love.
We shall at last take control of our future, our fate, and ourselves.
No other endeavor ever attempted by humankind will require more genius, dedication, compassion, and sacrifice.
And no other endeavor ever attempted by humankind will be more vital to the continued existence of our species.
I understand that for many this may initially seem like pure science fiction. This is to be expected since the scales of the threats we face reside within the scope of what we have always considered to be science fiction. However, in reality, all of these goals are well within our technological reach. They are the quickest, and I believe only, way for our species to battle both the physical and societal threats that will continue to confront us."
SearingTruth, A Future of the Brave, 2005
And a very well regarded anime, whose opening credits Star Trek Enterprise ripped off.
@dalias space exploration drove imagination in the 20th century, and pushed back against religion-driven conservativism to an astonishing degree, because it was new and involved a fundamental change to how humanity conceptualizes itself
but given time any social force becomes, you know... old and less exciting
@ireneista @dalias Navigation is a big one. Especially in dense forest, over open ocean, in bad weather, etc. GPS makes things much much better.
On the plus side, GPS birds live high enough up that they're unlikely to be affected by LEO clutter. The big concern is during launch and orbital insertion, when you're still down low. But it's unlikely we'd reach a truly apocalyptic Kessler situation where LEO is so full of debris you're guaranteed to be struck within minutes. Just "lifetimes are unacceptably short".
So you might need a slightly more energetic booster to lift it up to the working orbit quickly so it doesn't spend too long in Kessler-land, and might lose a few percent of your replacement GPS craft to impacts on the way up, but it wouldn't be a complete denial of higher orbits.
@dalias @ireneista There is legitimately interesting science that can be done by human-staffed bases, which is much more difficult to do with fully autonomous vehicles (in particular, the ability to service equipment to extend its lifespan).
I would really like to see a lunar setup similar to Antarctica - obviously unfit for large scale human habitation and dependent on supplies from earth, but a handful of scientists rotating in and out year round.
Self sufficiency is never going to happen, of course - that's a billionaire's pipe dream.
Well, yeah. A tad difficult.
@gleick Musk's satellites have already pretty much ruined terrestrial astronomy, and when the others start launching their "constellations" (!) we may arrive at the Kessler scenario a lot sooner than previous worst estimates. So some of the competitors are likely to be stopped before they get any serious numbers into LEO.
All of these projects are a land grabs (space grabs?) -- and no one in the U.S. government seems to have a clue about why it is a terrible idea to give it all to Musk.
Reminds me that I need to re-read the Rock Rats series by Ben Bova
@jamesmarshall @dangillmor @gleick
@dalias
The other bad news is that some of the first ones are already falling. They are disposable with an expected life less than 10 years. They are supposed to burn up in the atmosphere (heavy metal badness) but have also fallen as dangerous junk.
The other bad news is that two other countries have a couple ten-thousand they plan to launch.
These have great visualizations:
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/satellite-space-junk-havoc-stratosphere
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/space-trash-debris-spacex/
@gleick what if I told you that is #Musk's plan all among?
@uastronomer @gleick He doesn't!
He kinda expects to either "choose the terms of his death" or merely be an asshole.
I might take it more seriously if it appeared in an actual science periodical, and not a substack.
Satellittes do move very fast, but they are mostly launched in the same direction (East), so their relative speeds are not necessarily high.
GPS generally uses MEO , so what happens in LEO wouldn't impact it.
Musk's Starlink satellites come down within 5 years! To maintain the network, he has to keep launching them!
At least we found the explanation for the Fermi Paradox.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
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