Haven't read this one yet, but I'm itching to:

https://mastodon.world/@Mer__edith/113197090927589168

Hype, Sustainability, and the Price of the Bigger-is-Better Paradigm in AI
With the growing attention and investment in recent AI approaches such as large language models, the narrative that the larger the AI system the more valuable, powerful and interesting it is is increasingly seen as common sense. But what is this assumption based on, and how are we measuring value, power, and performance? And what are the collateral consequences of this race to ever-increasing scale? Here, we scrutinize the current scaling trends and trade-offs across multiple axes and refute two common assumptions underlying the 'bigger-is-better' AI paradigm: 1) that improved performance is a product of increased scale, and 2) that all interesting problems addressed by AI require large-scale models. Rather, we argue that this approach is not only fragile scientifically, but comes with undesirable consequences. First, it is not sustainable, as its compute demands increase faster than model performance, leading to unreasonable economic requirements and a disproportionate environmental footprint. Second, it implies focusing on certain problems at the expense of others, leaving aside important applications, e.g. health, education, or the climate. Finally, it exacerbates a concentration of power, which centralizes decision-making in the hands of a few actors while threatening to disempower others in the context of shaping both AI research and its applications throughout society.
Currently this is on #arXiv which, if you've read any of my critiques, is a dubious source. I'd love to see this article appear in a peer-reviewed or otherwise vetted venue, given the importance of its subject.

I've heard through the grapevine that US federal grantmaking agencies like the #NSF (National Science Foundation) are also consolidating around generative AI. This trend is evident if you follow directorates like CISE (Computer and Information Science and Engineering). A friend told me there are several NSF programs that tacitly demand LLMs of some form be used in project proposals, even when doing so is not obviously appropriate. A friend of a friend, who is a university professor, has said "if you're not doing LLMs you're not doing machine learning".

This is an absolutely devastating mindset. While it might be true at a certain cynical, pragmatic level, it's clearly indefensible at an intellectual, scholarly, scientific, and research level. Willingly throwing away the diversity of your own discipline is bizarre, foolish, and dangerous.

#AI #GenAI #GenerativeAI #LLM #ML
Meredith Whittaker (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image ๐Ÿ“ฃNEW paper! Donโ€™t believe the hype: bigger AI โ‰  better AI. @SashaMTL, @GaelVaroquaux and me on how the race to bigger, and bigger AI has bad consequences and isn't necessary. 1. Smaller AI models often perform better than big models in context And 2. Obsession with bigness has severe collateral consequences, from climate costs, to concentrated power, to more surveillance, to the capture of AI research. All of this, and what we can do instead ๐Ÿ‘‡ https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.14160

Mastodon
Speaking of machine learning, I once had a paper rejected from #ICML (International Conference on Machine Learning) in the early 2000s because it "wasn't about machine learning" (minor paraphrase of comments in 2 of the 3 reviews if I recall correctly). That field was consolidating--in a bad way, in my view--around a very small set of ideas even back then. My co-author and I wrote a rebuttal to the rejection, which we had the opportunity to do, arguing that our work was well within the scope of machine learning as set out by Arthur Samuel's pioneering work in the late 1950s/early 1960s that literally gave the field its name (Samuel 1959, Some studies in machine learning using the game of checkers). Their retort was that machine learning consisted of: learning probability distributions of data (unsupervised learning); learning discriminative or generative probabilistic models from data (supervised learning); or reinforcement learning. Nothing else. OK maybe I'm missing one, but you get the idea.

We later expanded this work and landed it as a chapter in a 2008 book Multiobjective Problem Solving from Nature, which is downloadable from https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-540-72964-8 . You'll see the chapter starting on page 357 of that PDF (p 361 in the PDF's pagination). We applied a technique from the theory of coevolutionary algorithms to examine small instances of the game of Nim, and were able to make several interesting statements about that game. Arthur Samuel's original papers on checkers were about learning by self-play, a particularly simple form of coevolutionary algorithm, as I argue in the introductory chapter of my PhD dissertation. Our technique is applicable to Samuel's work and any other work in that class--in other words, it's squarely "machine learning" in the sense Samuel meant the term.

Whatever you may think of this particular work of mine, it's bad news when a field forgets and rejects its own historical origins and throws away the early fruitful lines of work that led to its own birth. #GenerativeAI threatens to have a similar wilting effect on artificial intelligence and possibly on computer science more generally. The marketplace of ideas is monopolizing, the ecosystem of ideas collapsing. Not good.

#MachineLearning #ML #AI #ComputerScience #Coevolution #CoevoutionaryAlgorithm #checkers #Nim #BoardGames
Multiobjective Problem Solving from Nature

SpringerLink

@abucci

Obviously I agree. I've seen several "the AI hype is dying" posts from tech commentators. That seems overly optimistic to me. It does seem to be reaching a new metastasized form. It's gone from tech into our many institutions, propagating in new stupid ways.

I was in a meeting the other day with a bunch of teachers and professors, and they're all doing AI trainings, or integrating AI into their class. Even the critical ones propagate a fundamentally hyped concept of AI.

@[email protected] The call is coming from inside the house!

Many years ago I wrote a critical letter to an NSF program manager when NSF excitedly announced a new funding program "in partnership with Amazon". The details were alarming: if I remember correctly, basically Amazon was being invited to weave itself into the grantmaking process. I believe this has been an ongoing process at that agency that looks to be accelerating now. I view it as a perversion of the mission but I guess they don't see it that way over there.

Point is, while I do think the corporate hype is dying down, and the bubble it's caused may well burst, that doesn't mean the problem this stuff presents us with is solved. I fully agree with you. It appeals to a certain kind of imperceptive middle manager type in government and academia that has proliferated especially in the last decades. You've probably seen those surveys that >90% of corporate bosses think generative AI will increase productivity while >70% of workers say generative AI has created more work for them and somewhere around 60% don't want it at all. There's a top down forcing function here that is oblivious to what people want or need. Many of us detected this early on (I kept saying things like this was being forced on us against our will) and it seems to be true still.
@abucci You can see see the top-down forcing function in the papers about AI. I always make fun of them for saying things like "given the maturity of this rapidly improving technology, the adoption of LLMs in clinical medical practice is imminent." Those kinds of passive voice statements hide and reify power.
@[email protected] Right, it's a depoliticizing move. There's no point in organizing to resist a process if it's inevitable like gravity.

@abucci

Good example article of the metastasizing of the AI hype: https://www.justsecurity.org/103777/maintaining-the-rule-of-law-in-the-age-of-ai/

Even the critical arguments still have tenets of AI hype.

Maintaining the Rule of Law in the Age of AI

The increasing integration of artificial intelligence into the justice system carries significant risks to the rule of law.

Just Security
@[email protected] I love the phrases like "AI technologyโ€™s incursions into law and legal services", as though AI is sentient and intentional; and "AI-human partnerships", as though AI is a conscious being capable of collaboration. The people who write these things appear to be allergic to naming the names of the people who are responsible for these "incursions", or asking the AI "partners" whether they view the computer program they use as an equal.

Awhile back I came to think that the tech sector is trying to pull off what economics did, namely situate itself outside the reach of (quasi-)democratic decisionmaking so that it can become an unaccountable power center controlling the contours of public life in the US. Politicians can shrug their shoulders and point at "economic reality" in all sorts of unpopular or undemocratic situations and somehow deflect responsibility; meanwhile economists are thought of as supergenius demigods. Tech is angling to land in the same place, I believe.
@abucci Shit that's a great point and I think you're exactly right. You can see the germs of it in the early silicon valley startup ethos, and how it's grown, like how Macron wants to run France as a startup nation or whatever.
@[email protected] Yes. I was just remembering today how the AI doomer/effective altruist Paul Christiano was appointed at NIST against the loud protests of NIST scientists. Christiano was appointed by Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, who was formerly a venture capitalist. We've talked before about how NSF happily embraces bringing in companies like Amazon to co-run programs. And on and on. Tech and friends of tech are embedding themselves into the functions of government, which feels new to me. I believe in hindsight we'll view Biden's executive order on AI as a key inflection point.
@[email protected] Here's another stinker for you: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-02020-5

I've only read the abstract, but that's enough for me. They're reaching for identity politics to try to make the non-argument stick, right after evoking some kind of "supply-demand" neoclassical economics argument. The abstract is fully incoherent.
Quantifying the use and potential benefits of artificial intelligence in scientific research - Nature Human Behaviour

Gao and Wang develop a measurement framework that demonstrates the widespread use and benefits of AI in science. Nonetheless, there is a substantial gap between AI education and application across disciplines.

Nature
@abucci Goddammit!!!!! I love that equity line at the end. A beautiful finish to a fully incoherent abstract. ๐Ÿ‘ more ๐Ÿ‘ women ๐Ÿ‘ in ๐Ÿ‘ ai ๐Ÿ‘ hype ๐Ÿ‘