I did a calculation yesterday that made me want to scream. If you look at the *current* density of satellites in 1km altitude bins in Low Earth Orbit, and assume they are travelling at circular velocities (generally true), then Starlink satellites pass within <1km of each other EVERY 30 SECONDS.
At Starlink altitudes, everything is travelling at 7 km/second, so <1 km close approaches are terrifyingly close. Every 30 seconds. WHY.
Why do they have to be in such a dense orbit? Why do they need 42,000 of them?! They are launching more into this same super dense orbit and we're supposed to just trust that their "autonomous collision avoidance system" will be good enough to keep going at higher and higher densities?
There's an opportunity for error about every 30 seconds. One small mistake and we're in Kessler Syndrome, no more LEO satellites for decades.
"Oh don't worry, SpaceX has amazing engineers! They know what they're doing!"
Well yes, they're amazing. But they definitely make giant mistakes. Like... you know... dropping hundreds of pounds of debris from a "fully demisable" spacecraft by my house. Whoopsie.
SpaceX, please don't whoopsie us into Kessler Syndrome.
I got asked to speak to a Very Important group of people about the many terrible environmental consequences of satellite megaconstellations (collisions, atmospheric pollution, ground casualty risks) and I was wavering because it's a really really long trip and it has to be in-person (I guess because Very Important people can't Zoom or something...)
Anyway. This calculation made my decision for me. I'm going to yell at the most important people I can, hopefully it will help. (More details later)
Oof way too many replies for me to go through here, and while some are hilarious, some of them are really frustrating (yes, I know how orbits work, and I'm pretty darn good at math).
Signing off for a bit to focus on some other ways to teach people about the terrifyingly bad situation in orbit.
Ok one more post before I mute this thread: I absolutely understand why rural people are using Starlink (see my post from a few days ago trying to find a weather website that works well with my own shitty non-Starlink rural internet). I'm criticizing the SpaceX/Starlink operating practices, because they are dangerous, and are definitely going to cause severe consequences for everyone.
And, reply guys, please don't fucking tell me how orbits work.
Hopefully back to farm posts after this. MUTE
@sundogplanets
And for 3 million customers, apparently.
0.03% of the population.
While most people are going to have better options. And even those in remote areas are going to have better options...
And not at a cost that is amazingly accessible, so the "revolutionary" doesn't stick.
And I doubt would stay low once there's a captive audience to gouge... Oh, wait, I think I know why this thing exists.
@obviousdwest @sundogplanets @Rhodium103
Billionaires... In bunkers... Would have fibre.
@Rhodium103 @sundogplanets 0.03% of what population?
I have family in east Africa where this would be, if permitted, revolutionary. It is game changing in Ukraine.
The risks and issues with the constellation - not to mention many of the guys other things - are huge, complicated and irrefutable.
But it doesn't mean that there is no utility across the planet for internet access, incomparable with any local provider, enabling access to the information super highway, as we used to call it.
...and they could have high speed internet anyway via cables, wireless ground links etc.
That sounds more like a regulatory problem in the US than a technical one?
Also: regional problem, not a global one.
My point was that Musk is turning a regional problem into a global one :D
It's still a problem.
And before you say "well fix the regulatory problem" I'd like to introduce you to the US government and NIMBY voters who think 5G is a mind control device being used by the illuminati.
@Insufficient_entropy @atzanteol
Boats and trucks in rural areas don't need high speed internet though?
Also, filling the whole Earth's orbit with dangerous space junk so that people can have faster internet in American rural areas seems a bad trade-off?
@kasilas @Insufficient_entropy @FediThing @atzanteol
What matters most to someone like Elon Musk?
Power.
He now owns that entire sphere of LEO by virtue of squatters rights.
@Frances_Larina @Insufficient_entropy @FediThing @atzanteol space law is an absolute mess that is rife for abuse. LEO is the first, but just wait until we get companies on the moon and beyond.
I fear the setting for the original total recall is our future.
@FediThing @Insufficient_entropy @atzanteol Yes people who live or work in remote places do need/deserve the same access to modern telecommunications (including video call, ability to get out live video of emergency situations, etc.) as everyone else has.
"They don't need high-speed internet" is not a reasonable position unless you like keeping some people disempowered.
@dalias @Insufficient_entropy @atzanteol
You're using quotation marks on something I didn't say? I said no no one needs high speed internet *on boats and trucks* in rural areas. What kind of situation would mean you need high speed internet on a boat?
Also, haven't ever seen emergency services saying they need high quality video streams. Almost always it's nature of emergency and exact location, which is totally doable by ordinary phone lines and 2G/3G internet. They need to know where to send help and give basic instructions in the meantime.
@dalias @Insufficient_entropy @atzanteol
You don't need high speed internet to operate a boat or truck.
@Insufficient_entropy @dalias @atzanteol
"I know an IT person who works from their yacht using Starlink allowing them to work from literally anywhere"
You're saying we should be filling the entire Earth's useful orbits with dangerous satellite-destroying junk so that IT people in the rural USA can work from their yachts?
Have you lost all sense of perspective and morality?
"no failed emergency calls"
That is nothing to do with high speed internet. Calls can already be done with normal phones and satellite phones and radios.
The Titanic sent its position by radio in 1912.
@dalias @Insufficient_entropy @atzanteol
The "need" to let people work on their yachts?
What kind of work needs high speed internet anyway? I've worked in rural areas using 3G speeds.
"ways to make it happen without filling orbits with satellites."
...yes, by using ground-based internet, conventional radio, mobile phones etc wherever possible, and existing pre-Musk satellite phone services for emergencies.
@dalias @Insufficient_entropy @atzanteol
Ships already have telecommunications though, they have done for a long time.
@FediThing @dalias @Insufficient_entropy
You don't need mastodon. Yet here we are.
You can take away a lot of things with the "you don't need it" argument. It's a bad argument. Stop using it.
@CatDragon @dalias @Insufficient_entropy @atzanteol
"When you have to go out to make payroll weather reports with radar are everything."
You don't need high speed internet for any of that. There is already ordinary speed internet, ordinary satellite phones and conventional radio.
And the convenience of American lobster boats is hardly a reason to destroy the entire world's satellite services.
Are you trolling?
@Insufficient_entropy @atzanteol @FediThing You can drone-deploy A FUCKING LOT of small-solar-panel tiny mesh networking devices on treetops, building rooftops, utility poles, etc. for far less cost than launching satellites.
Of course there are regulatory obstacles, well-justfied if that were for-profit, but probably not justified if it were as a public good nobody was profiting from.
Uh, sorry - the US Supreme Court has nullified the entire "fix the regulatory problem" argument. It's up to Congress or the Courts now, for every tiny detail and only if someone (typically a corporation) sues.
@raptor85 @pettter @FediThing @sundogplanets
All these arguments are moot … if the current practices continue, soon enough *no one* will have high speed (or any) satellite service, anywhere in the world, and we will have (again) forever destroyed another part of our planet. It really is that simple.
@FediThing @pettter @sundogplanets @raptor85
I get that … but it doesn’t matter: the ridiculous inequities of America are not a reason or excuse for setting up a Kessler event that will affect the whole world, much of which *also* has shitty internet service.
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