Kamala Harris is proposing $25K to first time homebuyers.

When my wife & I bought our first home we scrapped together every penny for years! And now Harris just wants to give people $25K? Seriously?

Well, all I can say is that I am 100% on board! This isn't complicated folks. Let's stop making people needlessly suffer. Let's meaningfully invest in working people. And let's elevate the American dream.

@QasimRashid I kind of feel that all this will do is make all the homes $25k more expensive and further enrich those already holding that asset.
@tsrams She's also proposing a federal housing plan to build 3M more homes, which will more meaningfully alleviate the housing shortage and keep prices more manageable. None of these are silver bullets but each do help combat the current economic injustices.
@QasimRashid 3M is a lot; I agree that this needs multiple solutions.
@QasimRashid @tsrams the 25k will make things worse By a factor of 10.
Make corporations sell their rentals.
@QasimRashid @tsrams yes, that's an integral part of the real estate hustle--pretending it's a supply crisis that you can build your way out of. No. There's plenty of housing. They just won't let people who need it, have it. That's the only issue.
@QasimRashid @tsrams How do you get them into the hands of real people and not landlords or corporations, though?

@tsrams @QasimRashid Almost certainly.

If you don’t want to think about economics, you can just look empirically at places where it’s been tried. In the UK, the previous government tried several variations of this and each one was later measured to have increased house prices and reduce home ownership by young people. They made property developers a lot of money though, which is why the Conservatives were so enthusiastic about the policies: they could pay government money to companies that they invested in while pretending it was a thing to help poor people.

If you have a basic understanding of market economics, you’d conclude that increasing access to funds for buyers will drive up demand and, when demand goes up so does price. Without understanding anything special about the economics of the housing market, this is the obvious outcome.

If you understand a bit more about the housing market, you realise that most people own one home and sell their existing one to buy a new one. Their purchasing power is affected by the sale price. If you’re selling a starter home and now buyers of starter homes have more money, you can sell for more and then spend more, so the house-price inflation effects propagate up through the market. They also get a small multiplier so the biggest winners are people who own expensive houses. Big real-estate investment firms will see the value of their portfolio increase, which increases the amount that they can borrow and will let them buy more, which further drives up cost for buyers (though may make more rental property available). Disclaimer: I invest in a few funds backed by US real estate and would expect this to make me money if it passes, I just wouldn’t expect it to help the people it’s supposed to help.

If you understand how fractional reserve banking works, you realise that the money supply is increased when people take out loans to fund houses because it adjusts to match the value of assets that people have borrowed against. This means that it is likely to be inflationary across the entire economy, not just limited to housing.

There’s a reason economists warned our government that it was a bad idea when they proposed similar ideas. If you know anything about economics, it’s a bad idea, the more you know the worse it seems.

@tsrams @QasimRashid unfortunately that's precisely what will happen. Plenty of precedent from countries like Australia. I will always applaud initiatives to make housing purchases more attainable for people, but just throwing money at the problem rarely brings the desired result.

@QasimRashid
Look at other countries, giving money to first home buyers increases prices and so benefits existing home owners.

The proven solution is to simply build more housing. This also benefits workers by increasing demand on labour.

It's essentially economics 101, supply and demand impacts on prices.

@jwi @QasimRashid Exactly what happened in my country. First home buyers grants introduced, all property went up by exactly that amount overnight.

@QasimRashid woah hang on. This is a fast track to house prices sky-rocketing.
How do I know?
It happened in Australia 30 years ago.

That 25k turns into a 250k loan amount increase, which gets stamped onto every ticket price for every house. Putting the first home buyer further into debt.

Having a govt backed loan scheme is far more sensible, and we have a case study of it working vs not working in the red-lining of last century post ww2.

@QasimRashid it's good to help people but I hope some other policies get made to bring living costs down from the stratosphere because that $25k is going straight into the pockets of land speculators

@QasimRashid @feritae such a change from #Project2025 that adds a penalty to anyone unable to put 20% down.

(Also own a house, also think more people should be able to!)

@QasimRashid When I was growing up, the "American Dream" was to leave this world a better place than you found it. Now I find that too many of my contemporaries (I'm a boomer) feel like, "I had to scrimp, save, struggle and starve. So should you!" WTF is wrong with people. I was thrilled to hear than my daughter's college loans were forgiven, even though I didn't go because it was too MF expensive.
@QasimRashid potential householders Per Billion! Lets cut Defense and --Raise taxes to 90% on the TOO RICH like it was when Times where Good for everybody!
@QasimRashid Predatory lending, venture capitalists buying up homes, and billionaires supporting unaffordable housing is the GOP plan to keep voters poor, uneducated and docile.
@QasimRashid
I like your "I've got mine, drop down the ladder." attitude.
So refreshing.
@spocko @QasimRashid not sure, but you might not have got to the end of Qasim's toot. I didn't read it that way at all!
@QasimRashid I just bought my first house last month. I am entirely on board and am excited about how many people it will help.

@QasimRashid

Bush the second tried this too but with less altruistic intent. I believe we’re talking about Jack Kemp and mortgage fraud of the likes of Countrywide.

Incidentally, around that time, I was near a table of Countrywide executives having lunch at Houston’s in Pasadena. This is what they were talking about and colluding. I specifically remember one of them saying ā€œDon’t worry nobody goes to jail for this type of thing.ā€

@QasimRashid well unfortunately most people are too stupid so they'd be like no I didn't get 25k when i bought my first house so no one else should get it, not think like ah great idea my kids will get 25k each towards their first house. Funny how childless cat ladies are trying to give your kids a leg up... Most unfortunately free market will be like lets increase the house prices by 25k now.

@QasimRashid It's a great attitude to have - but I'm not convinced from my experience in Australia that it's something you really want over there: whilst it's supposed to make it easier for new homeowners, we've also seen here that it has continued to inflate our property price bubble.

But - maybe the US economically is in a different place. Here, the economy is the property bubble, and has convinced folk who just bought at the right time that they're financially wise.

@QasimRashid (but, we also prop up the property market whenever we can, because we wouldn't want our precious 'mum and dad investors' to lose a cent now, would we?)
@QasimRashid we borrowed 4k from my folks and used up our savings and still had to pay PMI since we couldn't get enough to put down.
@QasimRashid I'll be 60 in October and I just bought my first home!!
@QasimRashid I wish this was a good idea. It's not. It's a subsidy to real estate developers. The price goes up for you, because they know you have it. The money goes right through your hands and into offshore accounts of the ultra wealthy. Bad idea disguised as a good idea, signature corporate Dems. I still want her to win. But this is a classic con.

@Geoffberner @QasimRashid same as the idea of a renter's subsidy - for the short term yes, get people into housing, importantly keep them there, but it only lines the pockets of landlords

until Govs stop the rapid corporate buyout of housing stock, set real limits on increases, and mass build government owned housing, which is out of reach of capital fuckery, this problem will only increase

Look at Vienna for answers

@QasimRashid unless this comes with a ban on institutional investors buying up all the homes, then it's just a meaningless gesture.
@QasimRashid
Giving people money to buy houses isn't dealing with the fact that banks and large investment firms have realized property is profitable to just sit on.

@QasimRashid
The only way to make this work is to pay for it with a tax on the wealthy

Because it’s true that the money spent by the lower classes whether that’s welfare money given out by the government or working class folks spending their wages, eventually trickles up into the hands of capitalists

But if the government taxes the capitalist $25,000 And turns it around into another social program or into buying low income housing that cycle improves society

@QasimRashid
So #TaxTheRich until there are no #billionaires

Seriously, billionaires have no reason to exist

$900,000,000 is far, far, far too much money for any human being to control in a reasonable world

So get some math majors in, and turn the dials on the tax law back to before the #Reagan administration until we got that straightened out

That will give us plenty of resources to fix so many problems

And a lot of things will naturally correct themselves as this balances out

@AccordionBruce @QasimRashid It's just wrong. Also, when a society is mainly about the pursuit of wealth, it is not a healthy one on many levels.
@QasimRashid i mean it would be nice kf it was 25k for first time home buyers for past decade as well and not just going forward
@QasimRashid policies like this can just inflate house prices benefiting the vendors, and overlooks the poor who cannot afford the mortgage payments even with the 25k gift. A better policy is to use the money to build affordable rentals for the working poor. The income can then fund further builds. This increased supply can reduce house prices to more affordable levels for the middle class.
No one ever gave me one single dime to buy a house, nor was I privileged enough to be able to scrape anything together; I've been technically homeless my whole life, and I never once got to so much as propose for someone's hand in marriage. I'll probably die in a tent, and I'm still 100% on board. Those assholes better give people all that money, what with the cash they saved ruining my life!
@QasimRashid why do houses not get 25k more expensive

@QasimRashid how do houses not raise in price by about 25k?

I would love the solution to be this simple… but I raise you one even simpler: seize empty assets from the bank and coordinate in state parks free distribution to new home owners.
Can’t raise the price of a house if it’s free. Sellers don’t get tempted by bad incentives, buyers get homes, homes get filled… what’s not to love?

@QasimRashid Agreed. However, let's not forget the basic principle of market economics. This does not make a home $25k more affordable. Some (half or more?) goes directly to the seller as excess additional profit. My point: tax policy would be more effective to solve the housing crisis. Remove investor incentives in residential housing: eliminate capital gains advantage, section 1031 deferral of income recognition, accelerated and bonus depreciation, etc.

@QasimRashid

ā€œIf you have some money, the state will give you more moneyā€ how about we just give everyone $25,000

@HeavenlyPossum @QasimRashid Why not just keep things simple and give 25,000 to home sellers?

@QasimRashid @kAlvaro

It’s definitely not homebuilders extracting extortionary rents from people

@HeavenlyPossum
That is why it's first home buyers...

Unless you're renting the place while living in your patents basement

@EndlessMason

Right—it is a hand-out to people who already have access to cash or credit.

@HeavenlyPossum Yep, but not corporate land lords, or folks who have other houses...

there's not any point in giving $25k for a house to someone who can't get a loan - 'cause it's not going to have the impact the housing market the legislation is for

I mean, give them $25k from another program, sure, but if it's a thing to tweak the housing market it has to actually go into the housing market to work, right?

like, folks who can't get the loan need socialised housing not a reduced mortgage

@EndlessMason

My point is merely that when the state seeks to redistribute resources, it tends to do so to people who already have resources, not to people who need them the most.

Subsidizing rather than socializing home ownership or, best, dissolving enclosure, is simply the state doing what the state does, even when couched as ā€œliberalā€ policy.

@HeavenlyPossum Exactly. Kinda odd that the state never asks for that money back, or issues it as a loan/bond.

Might be nice if you could apply for a mortgage and ask the state to socialise the house

@QasimRashid it would be great, but i doubt that anyone could follow through.

@QasimRashid @ianhecht I appreciate action, but we need to make housing cheaper rather than giving money so people can buy expensive housing.

The problem is that housing is a major long-term investment for many people, so once you own a home you don’t *want* home prices to go down. Any attempt at solving the problem of housing costs bumps up against this constraint.

@michaelgemar @QasimRashid That's not really an issue if you don't see housing as an investment. If it's a place to live, as long as you get out what you put, you're okay. Inflation usually takes care of that. The reason for skyrocketing housing prices isn't young families buying a home for themselves.
@ianhecht @QasimRashid But I think most of the middle and upper class *do* see it as an investment.