Guy who blocked #Ukraine aid for ~6 months for domestic political reasons, directly leading to significant losses of personnel and territory, is suddenly Very Concerned about restrictions on how that aid is used 🤔 (but hey, given GOP will always claim Biden policy is terrible and wrong, it's certainly preferable to have them doing from the hawkish side)
https://kyivindependent.com/us-micromanaging-war-effort-in-ukraine-johnson-says/
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he disagrees with imposing restrictions on Kyiv regarding the use of U.S.-supplied weapons and criticized the Biden administration's "micromanaging the war effort in Ukraine," Voice of America reported on June 5.
Да, вчера аэродром в Ахтубинске подвергся атаке БПЛА. 3 штуки долетело. Осколками получил повреждения Су-57, сейчас определяется подлежит он восстановлению, или нет. Если нет, то это будет первая боевая потеря Су-57 в истории. Я еще раз подскажу. За цену только одного этого Су-57, укрытия от БПЛА можно было построить всем самолётам ОТА страны. Разумеется если по пути их не пиздить и не раздавать откаты. И на Лаос бы ещё осталось.
Aside from the obvious benefit of supplementing limited JDAM and AASM Hammer supplies… remember that SkyRanger with an OFAB-100? The big UAV conversions pretty vulnerable to AD, but if you can lob a precision guided, difficult to shoot down munition from a few km away, chances of a hit should go up a lot
"We were tasked in Jan 2023 to deliver BMD capability to 🇺🇦..the training occurred at Fort Sill, and in April we conducted a validation exercise in 🇵🇱. #PATRIOT was transferred to protect Kyiv in late April & at 02:30 AM [May 04] it engaged the first ALBM " Col Rosanna Clemente
Mediazona and BBC Russian "obtained a complete list including the personal data of 19,547 dead Wagner fighters" including "call signs, dog tags and dates of death of each"
Over 17,000 were prisoners
https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/how-wagner-lost-17000-fighters-in-bakhmut
Yevgeny Prigozhin and his political strategists have spared no effort or expense to create an image of Wagner PMC as an effective and ruthless organisation that accomplishes its ob...
#Ukraine officially confirms R-73 equipped #MaguraV5 #USV "These modifications are effective, the Russians are very afraid of them" - even if the hit probability is low, it should make the Russians a lot more cautious about getting within gun range
https://kyivindependent.com/magura-naval-drones-now-operate-anti-aircraft-missiles/
One of the Magura drones has already been equipped with these missiles, creating a serious challenge for the Russian Air Force operating in the region, the commander of the military intelligence Group 13 unit said in an interview with journalist Maksym Krapyvnyi.
"The Russian Investigative Committee issued an arrest in absentia on June 17 for the commander of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile brigade that destroyed the A-50" - For some reason, Russian bureaucracy loves this kind of absurd faux-legalism. You don't get much more of an unambiguously legitimate military target than an airforce aircraft directly engaged in active hostilities
https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-confirms-a-50-aircraft-was-shot-down-by-ukraine/
Russia: Shelling entire cities into rubble, launching missiles at apartment blocks and shopping centers, blowing up hydro electric dams, detaining and torturing thousands of civilians without charge is a "special military operation"
Also Russia: Shooting down a military aircraft actively supporting combat operations is "terrorism"
📄Суд в Москве удовлетворил ходатайство следствия об избрании в отношении командира украинской воинской части меры пресечения в виде заключения под стражу Хамовнический районный суд города Москвы удовлетворил ходатайство следователя Главного военного следственного управления Следственного комитета Российской Федерации о заочном избрании меры пресечения в виде заключения под стражу командиру 138 зенитной ракетной бригады (войсковая часть А4608) вооруженных сил Украины полковнику Николаю Дзяману. 23 февраля 2024 года воздушное пространство России патрулировал самолет Воздушно-космических сил Российской Федерации. По данным следствия, полковник Дзяман, осознавая, что указанное воздушное судно не предназначено для ведения боевых действий, не имеет вооружения, а полет проходит исключительно в воздушном пространстве Российской Федерации отдал подчиненным военнослужащим незаконный приказ на его уничтожение. Указанные действия привели к гибели 10 членов экипажа и уничтожению самолета. Дзяману заочно предъявлено обвинение в совершении преступления, предусмотренного п. «б» ч. 3 ст. 205 УК РФ (террористический акт, повлекший причинение смерти человеку), он объявлен в федеральный розыск. ⚡️ Подписывайтесь на Следком
Wild story of that Russian "turtle tank" recently captured in #Ukraine:
"Driver saw a Ukrainian M113, thinking it was his men, started to follow it. The M113 crew was a little surprised that a tank was chasing it … so it hid in a windbreak … The tank reached the windbreak, and the driver got out to ask how to get to Klishchiivka"
"Russia has begun firing Kalibr cruise missiles from warships in the Azov Sea as stationing them in the Black Sea is no longer safe enough" - There have been several (unconfirmed) claims #Ukraine used Neptune missiles to attack ground targets in Rostov and Krasnodar Krai, implying most if not all of the Azov Sea is in range 🤨
Unclear what they need for targeting, but… "[spokesperson for the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmytro] Pletenchuk cautioned Russian forces about feeling too safe in the Azov Sea.
"They forget that the Sea of Azov is also quite close to us"'
Recent strike on Yeysk claimed by RU source as "probably Neptune" cruise missiles
💥Удар по военному полигону г. Ейск. 21.06.2024 был нанесен удар по военному полигону 726-го учебного центра ПВО (в/ч 33859, Ейск) в Краснодарском крае. Учебный центр занимается обучением и подготовкой военнослужащих для использования БПЛА различных видов. Удар нанесен двумя крылатыми ракетами неустановленного типа (вероятно, Р-360 «Нептун»). Сообщается о гибели инструкторов и технического персонала из Елабуги (сотрудники завода, который занимается производством и обслуживанием аналога иранского «Shahed-136» - «Герань-2»). Фамилии – Гуня, Садреев, Кажанов. По информации источника, уничтожено: • «Shahed-136»/«Герань-2» - 20 ед.; • Ударный БПЛА «Ланцет» - 50 ед.; • Разведывательный БПЛА «ZALA» - 40 ед. О потерях среди военнослужащих информация отсутствует. @dosye_shpiona
Russian sources frequently make questionable claims about the weapon used, but damage to the building that wasn't completely leveled (presumably by secondary explosions of Shahed and Lancets whigh were seen in on-the-ground video) does seem suggestive of a single warhead larger than the typical Ukrainian UAVs. AFAIK we haven't seen any confirmed Neptune debris though
https://kyivindependent.com/satellite-images-show-russias-shahed-warehouse-destruction/
"Head of Ukraine's EU negotiating group: Ukraine will fulfil Hungary's 11 demands regarding national minorities" - Congratulations to Ukraine, who are on the verge of unlocking Hungary's next set of 11 demands!
NYT manages decent story on #Ukraine #Drone industry and the rise of more autonomous systems without getting too deep into #AI hype or skynet panic. IMO discussion around this is often muddied by people lumping everything from basic image tracking (functionally equivalent to a IR homing SAM from the 60s) to full autonomy under the "AI" label.
Could be coincidence but seems like there's been a qualitative change in #Ukraine's #UAV capability against ammo depots far from the front lines. They've had the range for a long time, but maybe not the accuracy to get things cooking off with a few relatively small munitions
Operatives reportedly set fire to a depot in the oblast's Olkhovatsky district, located some 70 kilometers (43 miles) from the border with Ukraine's Luhansk Oblast. The fire resulted in an explosion, the agency said.
Putin's mission to keep Russia safe from the supposed NATO threat racks up another success!
Following discussions ahead of the NATO Summit, the governments of the United States and Germany released the following joint statement: The United States will begin episodic deployments of the long-range fires capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany in 2026, as part of planning for enduring stationing of these capabilities in the future. When…
There's been a lot of reporting that this statement means Ukraine can use Storm Shadow against targets in Russia (and could under the previous UK government), but IMO the absence of any credible reports of Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory strongly suggests otherwise
The missiles are "obviously to be used in accordance with international humanitarian law" and "for defensive purposes," but "it is for Ukraine to decide how to deploy (them) for those defensive purposes," U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said during the NATO summit in Washington.
🤨 "This morning, I learned about the permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets in Russian territory"
But it the statement was reported as continuing the previous policy… I guess we can expect a walk-back or kinetic confirmation pretty shortly
I held my first meeting with the new UK Prime Minister @Keir_Starmer. I thanked Prime Minister Starmer for all the UK’s military and financial assistance provided to our country. This morning, I learned about the permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets
"The pro-Russian Fighterbomber telegram channel, associated with the Russian Air and Space Force, has published recordings of radio communications where Beriev A-50 AEW&C aircraft operators assist Su-34 bomber pilots in evading incoming Patriot missiles"
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-july-10-12-2024 (who link https://x.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1810867667621830674)
#Ukraine jet powered #UAV which looks to be based on hobby RC stuff, reportedly intended as an interceptor. €130K for five + ground station would be substantially cheaper per shot than western MANPADS, though I wonder what fraction of likely targets require the performance of a jet. The 130km/h mentioned is easily achievable with cheaper stuff, but that's just highest indicated speed in the video, presumably it can go much faster
✈️ Відео випробовувань українського реактивного БПЛА "BULLET" 🔹Заявляється, що цей БПЛА виконує функція перехоплювача, тобто призначений для боротьби з іншими БПЛА (розвідувальними або ударними), гелікоптерами і т.д. Характеристики на жаль невідомі, але на відео можна побачити, що дрон досягнув швидкості у 130км/год, а вартість комплексу з 5 БПЛА та наземної станції становить 5,8млн грн (130тис євро). ▪️Далеко не перша спроба створити реактивний БПЛА (попередні версії: 1, 2, 3), проте масового застосування таких дронів досі так і не було. Підписатися | Адмін | Чат
President of the Kim Il Sung Military University Kim Geum Chol, leading a #DPRK "elite military training delegation" to Russia reportedly drowned in a pond near Moscow 🤨
Russia’s State Statistics Service has excluded the total number of deaths from external causes in its annual report, independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported on July 16, citing demographic expert Aleksei Raksha.
С июля 2023 года по июнь 2024 года выплаты участвующим в войне с Украиной российским военнослужащим, а также раненым и родственникам погибших солдат могли составить от 2,75 до 3 триллионов рублей, подсчитал проект Re:Russia.
"Rosgvardia … submitted a draft bill, which explained that Russian Central Bank leadership needs the right to carry weapons, including pistols, assault rifles, and submachine and machine guns" 🤨
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18-2024
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian coast guard base in occupied Crimea on the night of July 17 to 18. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on July 18 that sources in Ukrainian law enforcement stated that Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted
A Russian lawyer-turned-chef who once appeared on a dating show back in his homeland was directed by the Kremlin’s intelligence services to stage “large-scale” acts of “destabilization” at the opening of the Olympic Games in France on July 26, The Insider has learned. The Insider can confirm that Kirill Griaznov, who revealed his plans in a drunken conversation over dinner on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast, has extensive ties to FSB and GRU officers. Griaznov has been arrested by French security services, who found sufficient evidence to charge him with espionage.
Alleged #Ukraine jet ski based #USV washed up on the Turkish coast near Istanbul. IIRC, in previous reports, jet skis were described as an early effort superseded by things like Magura 5 and Sea Baby. This one doesn't obviously look like it's been drifting for many months though, so maybe they're still preferred for some missions. Waterproofing all those external electronics boxes and connectors seems like it might be challenging
AP with a well reported story almost 2 years on from Russia's #Olenivka POW massacre
IMO "[UN investigators] negotiations [with Russia] to access the site were long and ultimately fruitless" tells you everything you need to know about who did it, even if a court couldn't convict on that alone
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-pows-prison-prisoners-15561a6d5cafc5b61a1f2643009c2a2c
Former Ukrainian prisoners of war who survived the explosions two years ago in the Russian-held barracks at Olenivka still puzzle over the strange events leading up to that night. More than 50 Ukrainians died and dozens were wounded. An Associated Press investigation that included more than a dozen interviews with survivors, family and investigators found that all described evidence they believe points directly to Russia as the culprit. The AP also obtained an internal United Nations analysis that found the same. Russia accused Ukraine of attacking its own men with U.S.-supplied missiles. The U.N. never published its analysis in full and has not named Russia as the perpetrator. Families of the dead and missing are still seeking justice.
Multi-billion dollar mis-valuation once is embarrassing, but twice?! 🤦
From the GAO comment sounds like different parties disagreeing about how things are valued, rather than actual errors in the books: "efforts to properly value defense articles for drawdown are hampered because the Foreign Assistance Act does not clearly define certain terms and DOD lacks PDA-specific valuation guidance"
https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-finds-accounting-errors-worth-2-billion-in-aid-for-ukraine/
Chaser: "According to a DSCA official, DSCA has procedures for compiling, entering, reviewing, and validating the valuation data in the PD Tracker, all of which are performed by the one individual who manages the PD Tracker"
So maybe I'm not reading GAO-ese correctly, but I get the distinct impression there is *one* poor E-3 somewhere tracking $25B in drawdown in PD_Tracker.xls
Yesterday, Russian telegram channels were mostly dismissive of Ukrainian involvement in that recent Tuareg ambush which took out a bunch of wagnerites. Today, Ukraine is bragging that they helped 🤨
NYT digs into #Russia #Ukraine sanctions evasion. Notably this is based on customs data, so doesn't even touch on more clandestine approaches which may be in use https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/technology/russia-sanctions-chips.html?unlocked_article_code=1._E0.nugM._T4CuNZgHotL&smid=url-share
Earlier in July, various media sources reported that Hungary had quietly changed the rules for its National Card program to allow Russian and Belarusian citizens to enter the country in a streamlined visa-acquisition process that does away with enhanced security checks or other restrictions.
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