Reed MidekeRussians finally moving from tires and pained decoys to aircraft shelters of some kind. While the construction isn't clear, doesn't seem like it should take much to significantly reduce risk from #Ukraine's typical attack UAVs. Even if it's not strong enough to survive a direct hit (which seems likely), neighboring aircraft would be at much less risk, and of course, it makes it much harder to tell where the aircraft are
Also, temu's targeted advertising is on point, though I suspect the Russians bought a higher end model
Official-ish confirmation 'no restriction on Ukraine using U.S.-supplied air defenses to shoot down Russian missiles or fighter jets over Russian territory “if they pose a threat to Ukraine"' (as it obviously should be, but there were rumors US objected)
And yeah, the US is understandably not happy about attacks on strategic early warning sites, which likely have little or no direct role in the war against #Ukraine https://wapo.st/4ch10bN
One of the big questions when the Czech initiative was announced, was "how can they find all these shells when US/UK etc couldn't"? And one obvious answer was that the sources were sketchy technically, politically, or both: "According to Strnad, 50% of the shells acquired by his company from Africa and Asia were in such a state that they could not be sent straight away to Ukraine without further work" (that doesn't mean it wasn't worthwhile, but TANSTAAFL)
Former Ukrainian MP (and current head of the State Agency for Restoration and Infrastructure Development) Mustafa Nayyem not hedging against a 2nd Trump term
Russian FPV vs (possibly already disabled) Ukrainian USV. I still suspect it's only a matter of time before we see USVs used as UAV motherships
https://www.twz.com/news-features/russian-fpv-drone-seen-attacking-ukrainian-uncrewed-surface-vessel-for-the-first-time
https://www.twz.com/news-features/russian-fpv-drone-seen-attacking-ukrainian-uncrewed-surface-vessel-for-the-first-time
"Zelenskiy made clear he wanted to use long-range weapons such as the UK-made Storm Shadow missiles. He said that, despite reports to the contrary, the UK had not given “100% permission” to do so" - Obvious corroboration is that there have been zero Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory since Cameron's statement https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/31/volodymyr-zelenskiy-russian-troops-have-been-laughing-at-and-hunting-ukrainians
In addition to US and other allies views, it may be that UK personnel are directly involved in the actual strike planning, as was hinted in the leaked discussion of Taurus, which would be a significantly different posture than just say "yeah, go ahead and use it"
"not one but two drones are launched: the FPV for hitting the target and the retranslator: a DJI Mavic equipped with a powerful antenna that enables the FPV to fly much further" https://kyivindependent.com/we-took-out-so-many-of-them-ukraine-stabilizes-kharkiv-front-after-brutal-russian-offensive/
‘We took out so many of them:’ Ukraine stabilizes Kharkiv front after brutal Russian offensive
Editor’s note: In accordance with the security protocols of the Ukrainian military, soldiers featured in this story are identified by first names and callsigns only. KHARKIV OBLAST – In battles fought under a sky swarming with enemy drones, even the most minimal movement, even the quickest dash from one house to another, is more often spotted than not. “Look, you can see three of them, those black figures moving down the street,” says Nazar, “Artist,” a softly-spoken young artillery commander
Another W for strategic genius Vladimir Vladimirovitch: Attack Kharkiv ostensibly to create a "buffer zone" to protect Belgorod.
Result: Ukraine now allowed to target Belgorod with Excalibur, GMLRS and DPICM
15-10 👀
More Osa + R-73 frankenSAM, seen here launching the standard 9M33 missile. As noted in the article, the command guided 9M33 and IR homing R-73 may each be favored for different types of targets, and integrating AIM-9 shouldn't be terribly different from the R-73 https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/u_zsu_nareshti_ofitsijno_pokazali_zrk_osa_z_novimi_raketami_video-15549.html
I've often complained about stories on western electronics in Russian weapons not having detail about the specific components. GUR now has a public database (and yeah, as expected, a lot is super common COTS stuff that's essentially unsanctionable)
Foreign components in weapons
Thousands of electronic components, originally intended to improve lives and fuel development, are perversely repurposed by aggressors into instruments of violence. These weapons rely heavily on foreign-made components. Disrupting this supply chain is critical to impede their ability to fight, occupy and kill.
Guy who blocked #Ukraine aid for ~6 months for domestic political reasons, directly leading to significant losses of personnel and territory, is suddenly Very Concerned about restrictions on how that aid is used 🤔 (but hey, given GOP will always claim Biden policy is terrible and wrong, it's certainly preferable to have them doing from the hawkish side)
https://kyivindependent.com/us-micromanaging-war-effort-in-ukraine-johnson-says/
US 'micromanaging' war effort in Ukraine, Speaker Johnson says
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he disagrees with imposing restrictions on Kyiv regarding the use of U.S.-supplied weapons and criticized the Biden administration's "micromanaging the war effort in Ukraine," Voice of America reported on June 5.
France previously "also denied separate reports that a cadre of Ukrainian pilots were already being trained to fly Mirage 2000s ahead of an expected transfer" - Most likely explanation is it was true at the time, but OTOH, the "by the end of this year" timeline would be a lot more credible if the program has already been in work for a while https://www.twz.com/air/mirage-2000-fighters-to-be-sent-to-ukraine-from-france
Su-57 reportedly damaged on the ground 🤨
https://kyivindependent.com/hur-ukraine-hit-su-57-jet-for-first-time/
https://kyivindependent.com/hur-ukraine-hit-su-57-jet-for-first-time/
Helpfully confirmed by Russian air force associated telegram channel https://t.me/fighter_bomber/16995
Fighterbomber
Да, вчера аэродром в Ахтубинске подвергся атаке БПЛА. 3 штуки долетело. Осколками получил повреждения Су-57, сейчас определяется подлежит он восстановлению, или нет. Если нет, то это будет первая боевая потеря Су-57 в истории. Я еще раз подскажу. За цену только одного этого Су-57, укрытия от БПЛА можно было построить всем самолётам ОТА страны. Разумеется если по пути их не пиздить и не раздавать откаты. И на Лаос бы ещё осталось.
#Ukraine reportedly close to fielding a domestically produced guided glide bomb kit https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-to-start-testing-domestically-produced-guided-aerial-bombs/
Aside from the obvious benefit of supplementing limited JDAM and AASM Hammer supplies… remember that SkyRanger with an OFAB-100? The big UAV conversions pretty vulnerable to AD, but if you can lob a precision guided, difficult to shoot down munition from a few km away, chances of a hit should go up a lot
Range won't be nearly as good as launching from a fast jet (unless they come up with more Tu-141s or something) and getting in range well defended targets would likely be dicey, but it seems like you could put a lot of medium value targets far behind the front lines at risk
Interesting series of clips from US personnel involved in supporting Patriot deployment in #Ukraine, including the claim the A-50 hit in January was Patriot https://x.com/AirPowerNEW1/status/1799813374676783118
AirPower 2.0 (MIL_STD) (@AirPowerNEW1) on X
"We were tasked in Jan 2023 to deliver BMD capability to 🇺🇦..the training occurred at Fort Sill, and in April we conducted a validation exercise in 🇵🇱. #PATRIOT was transferred to protect Kyiv in late April & at 02:30 AM [May 04] it engaged the first ALBM " Col Rosanna Clemente
Mediazona and BBC Russian "obtained a complete list including the personal data of 19,547 dead Wagner fighters" including "call signs, dog tags and dates of death of each"
Over 17,000 were prisoners
https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/how-wagner-lost-17000-fighters-in-bakhmut
Companion Mediazona piece with more details: Wagner "spent around 108 billion roubles, or $1.2 billion" on payments to relatives of KIA fighters https://en.zona.media/article/2024/06/10/wagner
The price of Bakhmut. We reveal the staggering toll of Russia’s bloodiest battle since WW2 and Wagner’s inmates recruited to fight it
Yevgeny Prigozhin and his political strategists have spared no effort or expense to create an image of Wagner PMC as an effective and ruthless organisation that accomplishes its ob...
"The prisoners left the colony after receiving identical handwritten certificates stating that they were released by decree of the President of the Russian Federation “On Pardoning” as of a specific date or without one. These decrees are classified and not published anywhere"
Another W for master strategist Vladimir Vladimirovitch: Armenia officially leaving CSTO https://www.politico.eu/article/armenia-ends-military-alliance-with-russia-pm-nikol-pashinyan-confirms/
"the Russian Air Force has accidentally bombed Belgorod Oblast and the occupied territories of Ukraine at least 93 times over the past four months" https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/13/7460603/
I'm sure China will object to Putin's proposal based on their long-standing commitment to the principles of "respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, mutual non-interference in internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence", right?! https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c033eyyr20do
#Ukraine officially confirms R-73 equipped #MaguraV5 #USV "These modifications are effective, the Russians are very afraid of them" - even if the hit probability is low, it should make the Russians a lot more cautious about getting within gun range
https://kyivindependent.com/magura-naval-drones-now-operate-anti-aircraft-missiles/
Magura naval drones can now operate anti-aircraft missiles
One of the Magura drones has already been equipped with these missiles, creating a serious challenge for the Russian Air Force operating in the region, the commander of the military intelligence Group 13 unit said in an interview with journalist Maksym Krapyvnyi.
Yet another #USV type was also announced. Looks like it might be more cost/production volume optimized with a minimally modified COTS hull and outboard
(also, I'd give pretty good odds the Russians identify that fancy venue shown in the photos and drop some missiles on it, claiming it's now a "military target" 😬)
https://kyivindependent.com/newest-naval-drone-presented-in-odesa/
(also, I'd give pretty good odds the Russians identify that fancy venue shown in the photos and drop some missiles on it, claiming it's now a "military target" 😬)
https://kyivindependent.com/newest-naval-drone-presented-in-odesa/
Appointing relatives to senior government positions might seem like an odd way to tackle crippling levels of corruption, but then again, I am not a master strategist https://theins.press/en/news/272460
"The Russian Investigative Committee issued an arrest in absentia on June 17 for the commander of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile brigade that destroyed the A-50" - For some reason, Russian bureaucracy loves this kind of absurd faux-legalism. You don't get much more of an unambiguously legitimate military target than an airforce aircraft directly engaged in active hostilities
https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-confirms-a-50-aircraft-was-shot-down-by-ukraine/
Russia: Shelling entire cities into rubble, launching missiles at apartment blocks and shopping centers, blowing up hydro electric dams, detaining and torturing thousands of civilians without charge is a "special military operation"
Also Russia: Shooting down a military aircraft actively supporting combat operations is "terrorism"
Следком
📄Суд в Москве удовлетворил ходатайство следствия об избрании в отношении командира украинской воинской части меры пресечения в виде заключения под стражу Хамовнический районный суд города Москвы удовлетворил ходатайство следователя Главного военного следственного управления Следственного комитета Российской Федерации о заочном избрании меры пресечения в виде заключения под стражу командиру 138 зенитной ракетной бригады (войсковая часть А4608) вооруженных сил Украины полковнику Николаю Дзяману. 23 февраля 2024 года воздушное пространство России патрулировал самолет Воздушно-космических сил Российской Федерации. По данным следствия, полковник Дзяман, осознавая, что указанное воздушное судно не предназначено для ведения боевых действий, не имеет вооружения, а полет проходит исключительно в воздушном пространстве Российской Федерации отдал подчиненным военнослужащим незаконный приказ на его уничтожение. Указанные действия привели к гибели 10 членов экипажа и уничтожению самолета. Дзяману заочно предъявлено обвинение в совершении преступления, предусмотренного п. «б» ч. 3 ст. 205 УК РФ (террористический акт, повлекший причинение смерти человеку), он объявлен в федеральный розыск. ⚡️ Подписывайтесь на Следком
I suppose the point of this is they can issue red notices against the people they file these charges and potentially rendition them if they end up in the wrong place. And if there's eventually a settlement, they can try to trade dropping these charges for dropping war crime prosecutions of Russians
CIT agrees the "STALKER 5.0" USV is the budget model "According to some sources, Magura USV costs $250 thousand, which makes its use justified only when targeting far more expensive ships. The new STALKER 5.0 marine drone, costing four times less at €60,000 [$64,300], carries half as much explosives (150 kg), has a range of 600 km [373 mi] (compared to 800 km [497 mi] for the Magura V5)" (though not clear which of the competing agencies and builders are involved) https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-june-14-17-2024
Wild story of that Russian "turtle tank" recently captured in #Ukraine:
"Driver saw a Ukrainian M113, thinking it was his men, started to follow it. The M113 crew was a little surprised that a tank was chasing it … so it hid in a windbreak … The tank reached the windbreak, and the driver got out to ask how to get to Klishchiivka"
"The Air Force pointed out that it is extremely difficult to shoot down a missile with a machine gun" https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/20/7461749/
"Russia has begun firing Kalibr cruise missiles from warships in the Azov Sea as stationing them in the Black Sea is no longer safe enough" - There have been several (unconfirmed) claims #Ukraine used Neptune missiles to attack ground targets in Rostov and Krasnodar Krai, implying most if not all of the Azov Sea is in range 🤨
Unclear what they need for targeting, but… "[spokesperson for the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmytro] Pletenchuk cautioned Russian forces about feeling too safe in the Azov Sea.
"They forget that the Sea of Azov is also quite close to us"'
Recent strike on Yeysk claimed by RU source as "probably Neptune" cruise missiles
Досье Шпиона
💥Удар по военному полигону г. Ейск. 21.06.2024 был нанесен удар по военному полигону 726-го учебного центра ПВО (в/ч 33859, Ейск) в Краснодарском крае. Учебный центр занимается обучением и подготовкой военнослужащих для использования БПЛА различных видов. Удар нанесен двумя крылатыми ракетами неустановленного типа (вероятно, Р-360 «Нептун»). Сообщается о гибели инструкторов и технического персонала из Елабуги (сотрудники завода, который занимается производством и обслуживанием аналога иранского «Shahed-136» - «Герань-2»). Фамилии – Гуня, Садреев, Кажанов. По информации источника, уничтожено: • «Shahed-136»/«Герань-2» - 20 ед.; • Ударный БПЛА «Ланцет» - 50 ед.; • Разведывательный БПЛА «ZALA» - 40 ед. О потерях среди военнослужащих информация отсутствует. @dosye_shpiona
Russian sources frequently make questionable claims about the weapon used, but damage to the building that wasn't completely leveled (presumably by secondary explosions of Shahed and Lancets whigh were seen in on-the-ground video) does seem suggestive of a single warhead larger than the typical Ukrainian UAVs. AFAIK we haven't seen any confirmed Neptune debris though
https://kyivindependent.com/satellite-images-show-russias-shahed-warehouse-destruction/
"Head of Ukraine's EU negotiating group: Ukraine will fulfil Hungary's 11 demands regarding national minorities" - Congratulations to Ukraine, who are on the verge of unlocking Hungary's next set of 11 demands!
NYT manages decent story on #Ukraine #Drone industry and the rise of more autonomous systems without getting too deep into #AI hype or skynet panic. IMO discussion around this is often muddied by people lumping everything from basic image tracking (functionally equivalent to a IR homing SAM from the 60s) to full autonomy under the "AI" label.
Article on #Ukraine using FPV drones as interceptors. Somewhat surprised we haven't seen fixed-wing RC stuff in this role, something based on COTS hotliner or pylon racer tech should be quite capable of chasing down Orlans over a significantly larger envelope than the typical rotor FPVs. OTOH time to field and existing operator skills are obviously a big factor https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/07/02/ukraine-fields-fpv-interceptor-drones-at-speed/
Could be coincidence but seems like there's been a qualitative change in #Ukraine's #UAV capability against ammo depots far from the front lines. They've had the range for a long time, but maybe not the accuracy to get things cooking off with a few relatively small munitions
Ukraine's military intelligence says it set fire to ammunition depot in Russia's Voronezh Oblast
Operatives reportedly set fire to a depot in the oblast's Olkhovatsky district, located some 70 kilometers (43 miles) from the border with Ukraine's Luhansk Oblast. The fire resulted in an explosion, the agency said.
Ben BrockertMaybe the slow grind of sanctions has made it easier to buy intel from the Russian chain of command? Maybe wishful thinking, but some of them must be looking for hard currency in a foreign account.
@wikkit My (mostly uninformed) guess is better terminal guidance. They've gone from flying to general neighborhoods to regularly hitting specific targets in oil facilities and individual hangers in airfields. Homing in on sheds in the middle of a revetment seems like it would be sufficient and probably not a huge leap. The big depots are pretty obvious in commercial satellite imagery so I've always assumed hitting was more a limiting factor than finding them
Putin's mission to keep Russia safe from the supposed NATO threat racks up another success!
Joint Statement from United States and Germany on Long-Range Fires Deployment in Germany | The White House
Following discussions ahead of the NATO Summit, the governments of the United States and Germany released the following joint statement: The United States will begin episodic deployments of the long-range fires capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany in 2026, as part of planning for enduring stationing of these capabilities in the future. When…
There's been a lot of reporting that this statement means Ukraine can use Storm Shadow against targets in Russia (and could under the previous UK government), but IMO the absence of any credible reports of Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory strongly suggests otherwise
New UK PM signals Ukraine can use Storm Shadow missiles to hit targets inside Russia
The missiles are "obviously to be used in accordance with international humanitarian law" and "for defensive purposes," but "it is for Ukraine to decide how to deploy (them) for those defensive purposes," U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said during the NATO summit in Washington.
🤨 "This morning, I learned about the permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets in Russian territory"
But it the statement was reported as continuing the previous policy… I guess we can expect a walk-back or kinetic confirmation pretty shortly
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) on X
I held my first meeting with the new UK Prime Minister @Keir_Starmer. I thanked Prime Minister Starmer for all the UK’s military and financial assistance provided to our country. This morning, I learned about the permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets
Bunch of disappointing-yet-predictable abstentions and non-votes, but 99 in favor to 9 opposed does show a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Russia stealing nuclear power plants
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/07/1152016
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/07/1152016
and there's the walk-back on the "UK approves Storm Shadow strikes on Russia" story. Suspect Zelenskyy's statement was intended to get this out in public one way or the other https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/07/12/7465385/
"The pro-Russian Fighterbomber telegram channel, associated with the Russian Air and Space Force, has published recordings of radio communications where Beriev A-50 AEW&C aircraft operators assist Su-34 bomber pilots in evading incoming Patriot missiles"
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-july-10-12-2024 (who link https://x.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1810867667621830674)
Notably Russia's Investigative Committee previously charged a Ukrainian air defense commander for the shooting down an A-50, on the absurd contention it was "not intended for combat operations" (which wouldn't make it any less a legitimate target even if true) https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112634530533332616
#Ukraine jet powered #UAV which looks to be based on hobby RC stuff, reportedly intended as an interceptor. €130K for five + ground station would be substantially cheaper per shot than western MANPADS, though I wonder what fraction of likely targets require the performance of a jet. The 130km/h mentioned is easily achievable with cheaper stuff, but that's just highest indicated speed in the video, presumably it can go much faster
Military Journal ✙
✈️ Відео випробовувань українського реактивного БПЛА "BULLET" 🔹Заявляється, що цей БПЛА виконує функція перехоплювача, тобто призначений для боротьби з іншими БПЛА (розвідувальними або ударними), гелікоптерами і т.д. Характеристики на жаль невідомі, але на відео можна побачити, що дрон досягнув швидкості у 130км/год, а вартість комплексу з 5 БПЛА та наземної станції становить 5,8млн грн (130тис євро). ▪️Далеко не перша спроба створити реактивний БПЛА (попередні версії: 1, 2, 3), проте масового застосування таких дронів досі так і не було. Підписатися | Адмін | Чат
Video from previous link. Takeoff roll would seem limiting for operational use, though catapult or rocket could get around that
President of the Kim Il Sung Military University Kim Geum Chol, leading a #DPRK "elite military training delegation" to Russia reportedly drowned in a pond near Moscow 🤨
On day 873 of the three-day special military operation (which is proceeding exactly according to plan) the State Statistics Service has censored national death statistics https://kyivindependent.com/russias-statistics-service-excludes-data-from-annual-report-to-conceal-war-deaths/
Russia's statistics service excludes data from annual report to conceal war deaths
Russia’s State Statistics Service has excluded the total number of deaths from external causes in its annual report, independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported on July 16, citing demographic expert Aleksei Raksha.
Everything going according to plan: "From July 2023 to June 2024, payments to Russian military personnel participating in the war with Ukraine, as well as to the wounded and relatives of dead soldiers, could amount to between 2.75 and 3 trillion rubles, the Re:Russia project calculated" https://meduza.io/news/2024/07/17/za-god-vyplaty-rossiyskim-voennym-i-ih-rodstvennikam-sostavili-summu-ekvivalentnuyu-1-5-vvp
За год выплаты российским военным и их родственникам составили сумму, эквивалентную 1,5% ВВП — Meduza
С июля 2023 года по июнь 2024 года выплаты участвующим в войне с Украиной российским военнослужащим, а также раненым и родственникам погибших солдат могли составить от 2,75 до 3 триллионов рублей, подсчитал проект Re:Russia.
"Rosgvardia … submitted a draft bill, which explained that Russian Central Bank leadership needs the right to carry weapons, including pistols, assault rifles, and submachine and machine guns" 🤨
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18-2024
Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian coast guard base in occupied Crimea on the night of July 17 to 18. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on July 18 that sources in Ukrainian law enforcement stated that Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted
"The Russian propaganda ‘Luhansk information centre’ announced the dismantling of stone monuments to the Victims of Holodomor and to the Victims of Stalin’s Repression on Remembrance Square in occupied Luhansk" https://khpg.org/en/1608813845
