Reed MidekeI'm sure China will object to Putin's proposal based on their long-standing commitment to the principles of "respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, mutual non-interference in internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence", right?! https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c033eyyr20do
#Ukraine officially confirms R-73 equipped #MaguraV5 #USV "These modifications are effective, the Russians are very afraid of them" - even if the hit probability is low, it should make the Russians a lot more cautious about getting within gun range
https://kyivindependent.com/magura-naval-drones-now-operate-anti-aircraft-missiles/
Magura naval drones can now operate anti-aircraft missiles
One of the Magura drones has already been equipped with these missiles, creating a serious challenge for the Russian Air Force operating in the region, the commander of the military intelligence Group 13 unit said in an interview with journalist Maksym Krapyvnyi.
Yet another #USV type was also announced. Looks like it might be more cost/production volume optimized with a minimally modified COTS hull and outboard
(also, I'd give pretty good odds the Russians identify that fancy venue shown in the photos and drop some missiles on it, claiming it's now a "military target" 😬)
https://kyivindependent.com/newest-naval-drone-presented-in-odesa/
(also, I'd give pretty good odds the Russians identify that fancy venue shown in the photos and drop some missiles on it, claiming it's now a "military target" 😬)
https://kyivindependent.com/newest-naval-drone-presented-in-odesa/
Appointing relatives to senior government positions might seem like an odd way to tackle crippling levels of corruption, but then again, I am not a master strategist https://theins.press/en/news/272460
"The Russian Investigative Committee issued an arrest in absentia on June 17 for the commander of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile brigade that destroyed the A-50" - For some reason, Russian bureaucracy loves this kind of absurd faux-legalism. You don't get much more of an unambiguously legitimate military target than an airforce aircraft directly engaged in active hostilities
https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-confirms-a-50-aircraft-was-shot-down-by-ukraine/
Russia: Shelling entire cities into rubble, launching missiles at apartment blocks and shopping centers, blowing up hydro electric dams, detaining and torturing thousands of civilians without charge is a "special military operation"
Also Russia: Shooting down a military aircraft actively supporting combat operations is "terrorism"
Следком
📄Суд в Москве удовлетворил ходатайство следствия об избрании в отношении командира украинской воинской части меры пресечения в виде заключения под стражу Хамовнический районный суд города Москвы удовлетворил ходатайство следователя Главного военного следственного управления Следственного комитета Российской Федерации о заочном избрании меры пресечения в виде заключения под стражу командиру 138 зенитной ракетной бригады (войсковая часть А4608) вооруженных сил Украины полковнику Николаю Дзяману. 23 февраля 2024 года воздушное пространство России патрулировал самолет Воздушно-космических сил Российской Федерации. По данным следствия, полковник Дзяман, осознавая, что указанное воздушное судно не предназначено для ведения боевых действий, не имеет вооружения, а полет проходит исключительно в воздушном пространстве Российской Федерации отдал подчиненным военнослужащим незаконный приказ на его уничтожение. Указанные действия привели к гибели 10 членов экипажа и уничтожению самолета. Дзяману заочно предъявлено обвинение в совершении преступления, предусмотренного п. «б» ч. 3 ст. 205 УК РФ (террористический акт, повлекший причинение смерти человеку), он объявлен в федеральный розыск. ⚡️ Подписывайтесь на Следком
I suppose the point of this is they can issue red notices against the people they file these charges and potentially rendition them if they end up in the wrong place. And if there's eventually a settlement, they can try to trade dropping these charges for dropping war crime prosecutions of Russians
CIT agrees the "STALKER 5.0" USV is the budget model "According to some sources, Magura USV costs $250 thousand, which makes its use justified only when targeting far more expensive ships. The new STALKER 5.0 marine drone, costing four times less at €60,000 [$64,300], carries half as much explosives (150 kg), has a range of 600 km [373 mi] (compared to 800 km [497 mi] for the Magura V5)" (though not clear which of the competing agencies and builders are involved) https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-june-14-17-2024
Wild story of that Russian "turtle tank" recently captured in #Ukraine:
"Driver saw a Ukrainian M113, thinking it was his men, started to follow it. The M113 crew was a little surprised that a tank was chasing it … so it hid in a windbreak … The tank reached the windbreak, and the driver got out to ask how to get to Klishchiivka"
"The Air Force pointed out that it is extremely difficult to shoot down a missile with a machine gun" https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/20/7461749/
"Russia has begun firing Kalibr cruise missiles from warships in the Azov Sea as stationing them in the Black Sea is no longer safe enough" - There have been several (unconfirmed) claims #Ukraine used Neptune missiles to attack ground targets in Rostov and Krasnodar Krai, implying most if not all of the Azov Sea is in range 🤨
Unclear what they need for targeting, but… "[spokesperson for the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmytro] Pletenchuk cautioned Russian forces about feeling too safe in the Azov Sea.
"They forget that the Sea of Azov is also quite close to us"'
Recent strike on Yeysk claimed by RU source as "probably Neptune" cruise missiles
Досье Шпиона
💥Удар по военному полигону г. Ейск. 21.06.2024 был нанесен удар по военному полигону 726-го учебного центра ПВО (в/ч 33859, Ейск) в Краснодарском крае. Учебный центр занимается обучением и подготовкой военнослужащих для использования БПЛА различных видов. Удар нанесен двумя крылатыми ракетами неустановленного типа (вероятно, Р-360 «Нептун»). Сообщается о гибели инструкторов и технического персонала из Елабуги (сотрудники завода, который занимается производством и обслуживанием аналога иранского «Shahed-136» - «Герань-2»). Фамилии – Гуня, Садреев, Кажанов. По информации источника, уничтожено: • «Shahed-136»/«Герань-2» - 20 ед.; • Ударный БПЛА «Ланцет» - 50 ед.; • Разведывательный БПЛА «ZALA» - 40 ед. О потерях среди военнослужащих информация отсутствует. @dosye_shpiona
Russian sources frequently make questionable claims about the weapon used, but damage to the building that wasn't completely leveled (presumably by secondary explosions of Shahed and Lancets whigh were seen in on-the-ground video) does seem suggestive of a single warhead larger than the typical Ukrainian UAVs. AFAIK we haven't seen any confirmed Neptune debris though
https://kyivindependent.com/satellite-images-show-russias-shahed-warehouse-destruction/
"Head of Ukraine's EU negotiating group: Ukraine will fulfil Hungary's 11 demands regarding national minorities" - Congratulations to Ukraine, who are on the verge of unlocking Hungary's next set of 11 demands!
NYT manages decent story on #Ukraine #Drone industry and the rise of more autonomous systems without getting too deep into #AI hype or skynet panic. IMO discussion around this is often muddied by people lumping everything from basic image tracking (functionally equivalent to a IR homing SAM from the 60s) to full autonomy under the "AI" label.
Article on #Ukraine using FPV drones as interceptors. Somewhat surprised we haven't seen fixed-wing RC stuff in this role, something based on COTS hotliner or pylon racer tech should be quite capable of chasing down Orlans over a significantly larger envelope than the typical rotor FPVs. OTOH time to field and existing operator skills are obviously a big factor https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/07/02/ukraine-fields-fpv-interceptor-drones-at-speed/
Could be coincidence but seems like there's been a qualitative change in #Ukraine's #UAV capability against ammo depots far from the front lines. They've had the range for a long time, but maybe not the accuracy to get things cooking off with a few relatively small munitions
Ukraine's military intelligence says it set fire to ammunition depot in Russia's Voronezh Oblast
Operatives reportedly set fire to a depot in the oblast's Olkhovatsky district, located some 70 kilometers (43 miles) from the border with Ukraine's Luhansk Oblast. The fire resulted in an explosion, the agency said.
Ben BrockertMaybe the slow grind of sanctions has made it easier to buy intel from the Russian chain of command? Maybe wishful thinking, but some of them must be looking for hard currency in a foreign account.
@wikkit My (mostly uninformed) guess is better terminal guidance. They've gone from flying to general neighborhoods to regularly hitting specific targets in oil facilities and individual hangers in airfields. Homing in on sheds in the middle of a revetment seems like it would be sufficient and probably not a huge leap. The big depots are pretty obvious in commercial satellite imagery so I've always assumed hitting was more a limiting factor than finding them
Putin's mission to keep Russia safe from the supposed NATO threat racks up another success!
Joint Statement from United States and Germany on Long-Range Fires Deployment in Germany | The White House
Following discussions ahead of the NATO Summit, the governments of the United States and Germany released the following joint statement: The United States will begin episodic deployments of the long-range fires capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany in 2026, as part of planning for enduring stationing of these capabilities in the future. When…
There's been a lot of reporting that this statement means Ukraine can use Storm Shadow against targets in Russia (and could under the previous UK government), but IMO the absence of any credible reports of Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory strongly suggests otherwise
New UK PM signals Ukraine can use Storm Shadow missiles to hit targets inside Russia
The missiles are "obviously to be used in accordance with international humanitarian law" and "for defensive purposes," but "it is for Ukraine to decide how to deploy (them) for those defensive purposes," U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said during the NATO summit in Washington.
🤨 "This morning, I learned about the permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets in Russian territory"
But it the statement was reported as continuing the previous policy… I guess we can expect a walk-back or kinetic confirmation pretty shortly
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) on X
I held my first meeting with the new UK Prime Minister @Keir_Starmer. I thanked Prime Minister Starmer for all the UK’s military and financial assistance provided to our country. This morning, I learned about the permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets
Bunch of disappointing-yet-predictable abstentions and non-votes, but 99 in favor to 9 opposed does show a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Russia stealing nuclear power plants
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/07/1152016
https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/07/1152016
and there's the walk-back on the "UK approves Storm Shadow strikes on Russia" story. Suspect Zelenskyy's statement was intended to get this out in public one way or the other https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/07/12/7465385/
"The pro-Russian Fighterbomber telegram channel, associated with the Russian Air and Space Force, has published recordings of radio communications where Beriev A-50 AEW&C aircraft operators assist Su-34 bomber pilots in evading incoming Patriot missiles"
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-july-10-12-2024 (who link https://x.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1810867667621830674)
Notably Russia's Investigative Committee previously charged a Ukrainian air defense commander for the shooting down an A-50, on the absurd contention it was "not intended for combat operations" (which wouldn't make it any less a legitimate target even if true) https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112634530533332616
#Ukraine jet powered #UAV which looks to be based on hobby RC stuff, reportedly intended as an interceptor. €130K for five + ground station would be substantially cheaper per shot than western MANPADS, though I wonder what fraction of likely targets require the performance of a jet. The 130km/h mentioned is easily achievable with cheaper stuff, but that's just highest indicated speed in the video, presumably it can go much faster
Military Journal ✙
✈️ Відео випробовувань українського реактивного БПЛА "BULLET" 🔹Заявляється, що цей БПЛА виконує функція перехоплювача, тобто призначений для боротьби з іншими БПЛА (розвідувальними або ударними), гелікоптерами і т.д. Характеристики на жаль невідомі, але на відео можна побачити, що дрон досягнув швидкості у 130км/год, а вартість комплексу з 5 БПЛА та наземної станції становить 5,8млн грн (130тис євро). ▪️Далеко не перша спроба створити реактивний БПЛА (попередні версії: 1, 2, 3), проте масового застосування таких дронів досі так і не було. Підписатися | Адмін | Чат
Video from previous link. Takeoff roll would seem limiting for operational use, though catapult or rocket could get around that
President of the Kim Il Sung Military University Kim Geum Chol, leading a #DPRK "elite military training delegation" to Russia reportedly drowned in a pond near Moscow 🤨
On day 873 of the three-day special military operation (which is proceeding exactly according to plan) the State Statistics Service has censored national death statistics https://kyivindependent.com/russias-statistics-service-excludes-data-from-annual-report-to-conceal-war-deaths/
Russia's statistics service excludes data from annual report to conceal war deaths
Russia’s State Statistics Service has excluded the total number of deaths from external causes in its annual report, independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported on July 16, citing demographic expert Aleksei Raksha.
Everything going according to plan: "From July 2023 to June 2024, payments to Russian military personnel participating in the war with Ukraine, as well as to the wounded and relatives of dead soldiers, could amount to between 2.75 and 3 trillion rubles, the Re:Russia project calculated" https://meduza.io/news/2024/07/17/za-god-vyplaty-rossiyskim-voennym-i-ih-rodstvennikam-sostavili-summu-ekvivalentnuyu-1-5-vvp
За год выплаты российским военным и их родственникам составили сумму, эквивалентную 1,5% ВВП — Meduza
С июля 2023 года по июнь 2024 года выплаты участвующим в войне с Украиной российским военнослужащим, а также раненым и родственникам погибших солдат могли составить от 2,75 до 3 триллионов рублей, подсчитал проект Re:Russia.
"Rosgvardia … submitted a draft bill, which explained that Russian Central Bank leadership needs the right to carry weapons, including pistols, assault rifles, and submachine and machine guns" 🤨
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18-2024
Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian coast guard base in occupied Crimea on the night of July 17 to 18. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on July 18 that sources in Ukrainian law enforcement stated that Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted
"The Russian propaganda ‘Luhansk information centre’ announced the dismantling of stone monuments to the Victims of Holodomor and to the Victims of Stalin’s Repression on Remembrance Square in occupied Luhansk" https://khpg.org/en/1608813845
So, you heard the French busted some dude for plotting to disrupt the Olympics? Well "The Insider can confirm that Kirill Griaznov, who revealed his plans in a drunken conversation over dinner on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast, has extensive ties to FSB and GRU officers. Griaznov has been arrested by French security services, who found sufficient evidence to charge him with espionage" 🥂 https://theins.press/en/politics/273350
Michelin Red Star: The Insider reveals identity of arrested Russian chef-agent who planned “destabilizing” ...
A Russian lawyer-turned-chef who once appeared on a dating show back in his homeland was directed by the Kremlin’s intelligence services to stage “large-scale” acts of “destabilization” at the opening of the Olympic Games in France on July 26, The Insider has learned. The Insider can confirm that Kirill Griaznov, who revealed his plans in a drunken conversation over dinner on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast, has extensive ties to FSB and GRU officers. Griaznov has been arrested by French security services, who found sufficient evidence to charge him with espionage.
Alleged #Ukraine jet ski based #USV washed up on the Turkish coast near Istanbul. IIRC, in previous reports, jet skis were described as an early effort superseded by things like Magura 5 and Sea Baby. This one doesn't obviously look like it's been drifting for many months though, so maybe they're still preferred for some missions. Waterproofing all those external electronics boxes and connectors seems like it might be challenging
Also, uh, if a jet ski shows up looking like this, maybe don't go poking it until EOD gives the all clear 😬
Multi-billion dollar mis-valuation once is embarrassing, but twice?! 🤦
From the GAO comment sounds like different parties disagreeing about how things are valued, rather than actual errors in the books: "efforts to properly value defense articles for drawdown are hampered because the Foreign Assistance Act does not clearly define certain terms and DOD lacks PDA-specific valuation guidance"
https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-finds-accounting-errors-worth-2-billion-in-aid-for-ukraine/
"GAO is recommending that Congress consider clarifying the definition of “value” as it relates to defense articles provided under PDA" https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-24-106934.pdf
Shot: "DSCA’s 1000 System is the official system of record for presidential drawdown data … there is sometimes a delay between the release of an EXORD and the update or creation of the record in the system, and the system is not capable of displaying summary-level information in a manner that is easy to understand. To address the limitations with the 1000 System, DSCA developed the Presidential Determination Tracker (PD Tracker)"
Chaser: "According to a DSCA official, DSCA has procedures for compiling, entering, reviewing, and validating the valuation data in the PD Tracker, all of which are performed by the one individual who manages the PD Tracker"
So maybe I'm not reading GAO-ese correctly, but I get the distinct impression there is *one* poor E-3 somewhere tracking $25B in drawdown in PD_Tracker.xls
2nd chaser: "However, this official stated that it would be beneficial to document these procedures for consistency in performance as well as continuity in the event of personnel turnover"
From the report (https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-24-106934.pdf) it sounds like a lot of this is just regular bureaucratic SNAFU, in a large part because the "value" to be used for PDA wasn't clearly defined in the law. As the GAO helpfully illustrates, which definition you use matters
Signs everything is going according to plan on day 886 of your three-day special military operation "In Siberia, volunteers started collecting body bags, but after the effort was publicized on social media and in the press, local authorities strongly requested that they be removed from the list of necessary items" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-july-26-28-2024
Yesterday, Russian telegram channels were mostly dismissive of Ukrainian involvement in that recent Tuareg ambush which took out a bunch of wagnerites. Today, Ukraine is bragging that they helped 🤨
NYT digs into #Russia #Ukraine sanctions evasion. Notably this is based on customs data, so doesn't even touch on more clandestine approaches which may be in use https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/technology/russia-sanctions-chips.html?unlocked_article_code=1._E0.nugM._T4CuNZgHotL&smid=url-share
Famously anti-immigrant Orban makes an exception for Russians and Belarusians 🤔 https://kyivindependent.com/hungarys-decision-to-ease-visa-restrictions-for-russians-increases-risk-of-spying-leading-eu-party-says/
Hungary's decision to ease visa restrictions for Russians increases risk of spying, leading EU party says
Earlier in July, various media sources reported that Hungary had quietly changed the rules for its National Card program to allow Russian and Belarusian citizens to enter the country in a streamlined visa-acquisition process that does away with enhanced security checks or other restrictions.
I'd pay cash money to see the look on Reagan's face if he saw that last item
Our cyberpunk future is here: #UAV cell site simulators for psyops
"A Ukrainian security official … said the Russians frequently sent large numbers of text messages from devices attached to an Orlan-10 long-range reconnaissance drone which can penetrate dozens of kilometres into Ukrainian airspace.
The devices, known as Leer-3 systems, imitate cellular base stations that phones automatically connect to in search of coverage, he added" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-vs-ukraine-biggest-war-fake-news-era-2024-07-31/
"A Ukrainian security official … said the Russians frequently sent large numbers of text messages from devices attached to an Orlan-10 long-range reconnaissance drone which can penetrate dozens of kilometres into Ukrainian airspace.
The devices, known as Leer-3 systems, imitate cellular base stations that phones automatically connect to in search of coverage, he added" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-vs-ukraine-biggest-war-fake-news-era-2024-07-31/
Though TBH I'm not sure how reliable that claim is. Seems like there would be easier ways to text bomb and higher value uses of the reported capability. OTOH given the Russians track record, that's not necessarily a strong argument they didn't do it
Not there was any real doubt, but once again, after years of denying they had any do with murderer Vadim Krasikov, #Russia admits he was an FSB agent who previously worked on Putin's security detail https://kyivindependent.com/krasnikov-fsb-agent/
Morozovsk airbase, home of Russian bombers some 300 km from #Ukraine controlled territory got hit for the 3rd time in the last several months, and appears to be very on fire https://t.me/etorostov/61142
Это Ростов новости
‼️ ВСУ совершили одну из самых массированных атак на Ростовскую область. Сильнее всего пострадал Морозовский район. Взрывы были также слышны в Ростове, Батайске, Таганроге, Азове, Каменске. Повреждения получили склады в Каменском и Морозовском районах и нефтехранилище под Каменском. Службы ликвидируют возгорания. Информация о пострадавших уточняется. (с) Василий Голубев 👉Подпишись на самый оперативный канал Ростова 📨Присылай свои новости в ЭтоРостов!
Rybar "No losses were reported among the flight crew or aircraft" at Morozovsk (https://t.me/rybar/62399)
The aircraft (https://t.me/russianocontext/4229)
Рыбарь
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Украинские формирования в очередной раз осуществили массированный налет дронами на объекты в тыловых и приграничных регионах России. ▪️Два дрона попали в одну из многоэтажек в микрорайоне Болховский в городе Орел. Учитывая, что оба попадания пришлись в одно здание, вероятнее всего, беспилотники летели по заранее установленному маршруту. Позднее в области было сбито еще 17 БЛА, обошлось без последствий. ▪️В Ростовской области сбито свыше 50 дронов. В очередной раз целью для атаки стал аэродром Морозовск. Попадание пришлось по складу боеприпасов на территории аэродрома, вызвавшее мощную детонацию. О потерях среди летного состава или бортов не сообщалось. Еще одна группа беспилотников атаковала нефтебазу «Комбинат «Атлас» Росрезерва, как минимум один из резервуаров горит до сих пор. В Сети вновь было опубликовано множество кадров с мест, что позволило противнику установить точное место прилета. ▪️В приграничных регионах была атакована нефтебаза в городе Губкин Белгородской области, возгорание на территории которой оперативно ликвидировали. Также отражен налет дронов на объекты в Курске и области, сбито по меньшей мере шесть беспилотников. ▪️Несколько БЛА было перехвачено в Воронежской и Рязанской областях, а также в акватории Азовского моря и Краснодарском крае, обошлось без жертв и последствий на земле. ❗️В очередной раз стоит напомнить, что публикация в отдельных региональных телеграм-каналах «кадров с мест» без минимальной обработки позволяет противнику более качественно проводить оценку эффективности своих атак. Таким образом украинское командование может корректировать планы для будущих налетов, исходя из полученных сведений в открытых источниках, что гораздо быстрее и безопаснее, нежели работа агентурной сети ВСУ на местах. Карта в высоком разрешении English version #Белгород #Воронеж #карта #Краснодар #Курск #Орел #Россия #Ростов #Рязань #Украина @rybar Поддержать нас
#Ukraine FPV #UAV hits a Russian Mi-28. Outcome not seen, but according the Russians damage resulted in a forced landing https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-fpv-drones-allegedly-hits-russian-helicopter/
Ukrainian FPV drone hit Russian Mi-28 helicopter in 'historic' feat, source says
The drone operated by the Special Operations Center "A" of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) managed to hit the helicopter's tail rotor, the source said, calling it "a unique special operation in military history."
As noted Sternenko's post, the video shows three different attempts. Also "We also have a LOT of videos of Orlans, Zala and other wings being shot down. However, there is currently a total high command ban on such publications and we will abide by it until lifted" 🤨
STERNENKO
ПЕРШЕ У ІСТОРІЇ УРАЖЕННЯ ГЕЛІКОПТЕРА ДРОНОМ У ПОВІТРІ! Воїни підрозділу М2 Центру спецоперацій СБУ змогли вчора завдати удару по російському Мі-28 довгим FPV, на який ви раніше донатили. На жаль, інформації про подальшу долю гвинтокрила немає. Також на відео ще 2 спроби заходу на вертикальних росіян. Цей результат – кропітка робота інженерів, операторів та ваших донатів. Дякую! Щоб таке ставалось частіше, закидуйте на Небесний русоріз - https://send.monobank.ua/jar/88inaAFaZG Збиватись будуть не тільки розвідувальні крила, а і гелікоптери😎 Відео збиття Орланів, Zala та інших крил у нас також є ДУЖЕ багато. Проте наразі діє повна заборона вищого командування на такі публікації, і ми будемо її дотримуватись до скасування. М2 топ! СБУ задає високу планку!
Often suggested that "bringing the war home" will turn Russians against it, but as BBC's Steve Rosenberg notes "people I met told me that nothing like this had happened before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine: before February 2022 it was all peace and quiet in Belgorod region. But instead of concluding that the [war] had been a mistake, most people I spoke to called for Russia to step up its military action and push deeper into Ukrainian territory"
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4y3529v7vo
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4y3529v7vo
Historically, "rally around the flag" seems like the more common effect, even under regimes that are otherwise not well liked
Not sure what to make of the Kursk operation, but one random observation: Wagner was a heck of a lot less well equipped and made it most of the way to Moscow. Which is not to suggest Ukraine is going to try a similar mad dash, but Russia having difficulty responding away from prepared lines is not unprecedented. OTOH in the Wagner case, it wasn't clear how much of the issue was capability vs the available forces not wanting to fight
OTOH, one could also draw a parallel to the initial Russian advance into Ukraine, which did not age well: "the tactics of Ukrainian formations with an emphasis on high-speed dashes, bypassing fortified areas and maximum expansion of the breakthrough zone without securing at the first stage in its simplicity surpasses the capabilities of the Russian army to counterattack"
https://t.me/rybar/62567
https://t.me/rybar/62567
Рыбарь
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Курское направление: расширение зоны контроля ВСУ на восток и север от Суджи что известно по состоянию на 17.00 8 августа 2024 года Несмотря на попытки российской объединённой группировки войск (сил) остановить продвижение украинских мобильных групп, масштаб кризиса ширится: к сожалению, тактика украинских формирований с упором на скоростные рывки, обход укрепрайонов и максимальное расширение зоны прорыва без закрепления на первом этапе по своей бесхитростности превосходит пока возможности российской армии к контратакам. 🔻В Суджанском районе зона условного контроля украинских формирований расширилась до 30 км вдоль дороги Дьяконово — Суджа. ▪️Очаги сопротивления российской армии отрезают и обходят по рокадным дорогам. После занятия Казачьей Локни на севере, а также Мирного и Бондаревки на юге украинские формирования вошли в Мартыновку и связали находившиеся там войска боем. После этого был взят населённый пункт Круглик. Одновременно с этим мобильная группа ВСУ двинулась по трассе дальше, дойдя до Большого Солдатского и завязав бой в населённом пункте. Поступают сообщения о том, что бои с ДРГ противника проходят и дальше по трассе. ▪️В 15 км к югу от Льгова идут ожесточённые бои в окружающих населённых пунктах. ▪️В условиях активного задействования вражеского РЭБ на отдельных участках по-прежнему царит «туман войны», поэтому говорить о полном разгроме опорных пунктов, которые прошёл или обошёл противник, преждевременно. 🔻В Кореневском районе ВСУ не оставляют попыток занять административный центр. Одновременные бои велись на въезде в Коренево, а также предпринимались попытки занять Ольговку с Кремяным. Для части украинских войск, наступающих на этом участке, необходимо как сковать силы ВС РФ боем, так и прорваться к трассе Рыльск — Льгов для того, чтобы расширить масштаб оперативного кризиса ВС РФ и растянуть силы российских войск. 📌Одновременно украинские формирования уже начали окапывание на достигнутых рубежах, вводя второй эшелон. Захват Суджи стал воодушевляющим фактором для ВСУ, которым они сейчас пытаются перебить потери и продемонстрировать, что игра стоит свеч. Самой большой проблемой организации обороны на Курском тактическом направлении по-прежнему остаётся разрозненность подразделений и нехватка должного количества сил, которые сейчас якобы снимают с других направлений. При этом российские информационные ресурсы, которые наперегонки пишут названия бригад и дивизий, которые вот-вот придут (но всё не приходят) добавляют хаоса в информационное пространство. Карта в высоком разрешении English version #дайджест #карта #Курск #Россия #Украина @rybar Поддержать нас
Following Morozovsk, #Ukraine appears to have hit ammunition at Lipetsk Air Base "Meanwhile, the military airfield in Lipetsk has been exploding for about an hour", possibly complicating Russian air support in Kursk
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/65198
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/65198
