"A missile struck the Novorossiysk port and caused a fire to break out, residents said" 👀
~350 km from the front line, in Russia would be new if it was actually a missile.
Claimed UK policy allowing strikes in Russia in effect? Stray Russian AD? Something new?
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-novorossiysk-port-oil-depot-hit-in-overnight-attack/
Rosneft's Tuapse oil refinery has resumed processing after sustaining damage from a drone strike in January. Repairs were reportedly completed at the facility's primary oil refining unit at the end of April.
"Starlink devices - satellite internet the Ukrainian military relies on for basic communication - failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russia’s invasion in February 2022" - Likely not the explanation, but notable the new Kharkiv offensive did start around the same time as the recent solar storm, which was reported to have impacted Starlink to some extent 🤔
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/kharkive-defenses-ukraine-russia-reinvasion/
БМ 9А33БМ3 зі складу комплексу "Оса-АКМ" зі встановленими ракетами Р-73 замість штатних ЗКР 9М33М3 Фото не нове, але до цього майже не фігурувало в інформаційному просторі, тому вирішили поділитися ним у трохи кращій якості. В рамках такої модернізації, на стандартну БМ були встановлені АПУ-73 та додаткове обладнання, для здійснення наведення та захоплення цілі. В результаті, дальність пуску трохи зросла (завдяки новій ракеті). Таким чином вирішується проблема з нестачею зенітних ракет для ЗРК "Оса-АКМ", які ми до цього закуповували в країн Близького Сходу та Африки. Говорити про ефективність зарано та не варто, хоча самі для себе, ми вже висновки зробили Модернізація була реалізована українськими спеціалістами поза програмою FrankenSAM. В цілому, досвід такого використання ракет "повітря-повітря" має не лише Україна. Один з чудових прикладів– Індія. На додачу, українські спеціалісти намагаються інтегрувати ці ракети на морські дрони. VANGUARD #ППО #ЗРК #Оса_АКМ #Р_73
#Ukraine equipping SeaBaby #USV with GRADs 🤨
spread has got to be pretty wild firing from the deck of a speedboat on open water, hard to see it being effective against land targets. Maybe distracting deck gunners in the last few hundred meters of an attack run on a ship?
https://kyivindependent.com/the-sbu-has-a-new-weapon-grad-equipped-sea-baby-drones/
WaPo with a big story on the state of GPS jamming in #Ukraine. Explains why Ukraine started hitting apparently lower value targets more with GMLRS a while back.
Seems like there'd be a lot of value in a home-on-jam modules that can plug into existing avionics (reported elsewhere to be in work for JDAMs).
NYT corroborates the earlier report of Starlink jamming at the start of the Kharkiv offensive https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/technology/ukraine-russia-starlink.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uU0.pmna.AwapTby2TvhF&smid=url-share
Russians finally moving from tires and pained decoys to aircraft shelters of some kind. While the construction isn't clear, doesn't seem like it should take much to significantly reduce risk from #Ukraine's typical attack UAVs. Even if it's not strong enough to survive a direct hit (which seems likely), neighboring aircraft would be at much less risk, and of course, it makes it much harder to tell where the aircraft are
Official-ish confirmation 'no restriction on Ukraine using U.S.-supplied air defenses to shoot down Russian missiles or fighter jets over Russian territory “if they pose a threat to Ukraine"' (as it obviously should be, but there were rumors US objected)
And yeah, the US is understandably not happy about attacks on strategic early warning sites, which likely have little or no direct role in the war against #Ukraine https://wapo.st/4ch10bN
One of the big questions when the Czech initiative was announced, was "how can they find all these shells when US/UK etc couldn't"? And one obvious answer was that the sources were sketchy technically, politically, or both: "According to Strnad, 50% of the shells acquired by his company from Africa and Asia were in such a state that they could not be sent straight away to Ukraine without further work" (that doesn't mean it wasn't worthwhile, but TANSTAAFL)
Editor’s note: In accordance with the security protocols of the Ukrainian military, soldiers featured in this story are identified by first names and callsigns only. KHARKIV OBLAST – In battles fought under a sky swarming with enemy drones, even the most minimal movement, even the quickest dash from one house to another, is more often spotted than not. “Look, you can see three of them, those black figures moving down the street,” says Nazar, “Artist,” a softly-spoken young artillery commander
Another W for strategic genius Vladimir Vladimirovitch: Attack Kharkiv ostensibly to create a "buffer zone" to protect Belgorod.
Result: Ukraine now allowed to target Belgorod with Excalibur, GMLRS and DPICM
I've often complained about stories on western electronics in Russian weapons not having detail about the specific components. GUR now has a public database (and yeah, as expected, a lot is super common COTS stuff that's essentially unsanctionable)
Thousands of electronic components, originally intended to improve lives and fuel development, are perversely repurposed by aggressors into instruments of violence. These weapons rely heavily on foreign-made components. Disrupting this supply chain is critical to impede their ability to fight, occupy and kill.
Guy who blocked #Ukraine aid for ~6 months for domestic political reasons, directly leading to significant losses of personnel and territory, is suddenly Very Concerned about restrictions on how that aid is used 🤔 (but hey, given GOP will always claim Biden policy is terrible and wrong, it's certainly preferable to have them doing from the hawkish side)
https://kyivindependent.com/us-micromanaging-war-effort-in-ukraine-johnson-says/
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he disagrees with imposing restrictions on Kyiv regarding the use of U.S.-supplied weapons and criticized the Biden administration's "micromanaging the war effort in Ukraine," Voice of America reported on June 5.
Да, вчера аэродром в Ахтубинске подвергся атаке БПЛА. 3 штуки долетело. Осколками получил повреждения Су-57, сейчас определяется подлежит он восстановлению, или нет. Если нет, то это будет первая боевая потеря Су-57 в истории. Я еще раз подскажу. За цену только одного этого Су-57, укрытия от БПЛА можно было построить всем самолётам ОТА страны. Разумеется если по пути их не пиздить и не раздавать откаты. И на Лаос бы ещё осталось.
Aside from the obvious benefit of supplementing limited JDAM and AASM Hammer supplies… remember that SkyRanger with an OFAB-100? The big UAV conversions pretty vulnerable to AD, but if you can lob a precision guided, difficult to shoot down munition from a few km away, chances of a hit should go up a lot
"We were tasked in Jan 2023 to deliver BMD capability to 🇺🇦..the training occurred at Fort Sill, and in April we conducted a validation exercise in 🇵🇱. #PATRIOT was transferred to protect Kyiv in late April & at 02:30 AM [May 04] it engaged the first ALBM " Col Rosanna Clemente
Mediazona and BBC Russian "obtained a complete list including the personal data of 19,547 dead Wagner fighters" including "call signs, dog tags and dates of death of each"
Over 17,000 were prisoners
https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/how-wagner-lost-17000-fighters-in-bakhmut
Yevgeny Prigozhin and his political strategists have spared no effort or expense to create an image of Wagner PMC as an effective and ruthless organisation that accomplishes its ob...
#Ukraine officially confirms R-73 equipped #MaguraV5 #USV "These modifications are effective, the Russians are very afraid of them" - even if the hit probability is low, it should make the Russians a lot more cautious about getting within gun range
https://kyivindependent.com/magura-naval-drones-now-operate-anti-aircraft-missiles/
One of the Magura drones has already been equipped with these missiles, creating a serious challenge for the Russian Air Force operating in the region, the commander of the military intelligence Group 13 unit said in an interview with journalist Maksym Krapyvnyi.
"The Russian Investigative Committee issued an arrest in absentia on June 17 for the commander of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile brigade that destroyed the A-50" - For some reason, Russian bureaucracy loves this kind of absurd faux-legalism. You don't get much more of an unambiguously legitimate military target than an airforce aircraft directly engaged in active hostilities
https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-confirms-a-50-aircraft-was-shot-down-by-ukraine/
Russia: Shelling entire cities into rubble, launching missiles at apartment blocks and shopping centers, blowing up hydro electric dams, detaining and torturing thousands of civilians without charge is a "special military operation"
Also Russia: Shooting down a military aircraft actively supporting combat operations is "terrorism"
📄Суд в Москве удовлетворил ходатайство следствия об избрании в отношении командира украинской воинской части меры пресечения в виде заключения под стражу Хамовнический районный суд города Москвы удовлетворил ходатайство следователя Главного военного следственного управления Следственного комитета Российской Федерации о заочном избрании меры пресечения в виде заключения под стражу командиру 138 зенитной ракетной бригады (войсковая часть А4608) вооруженных сил Украины полковнику Николаю Дзяману. 23 февраля 2024 года воздушное пространство России патрулировал самолет Воздушно-космических сил Российской Федерации. По данным следствия, полковник Дзяман, осознавая, что указанное воздушное судно не предназначено для ведения боевых действий, не имеет вооружения, а полет проходит исключительно в воздушном пространстве Российской Федерации отдал подчиненным военнослужащим незаконный приказ на его уничтожение. Указанные действия привели к гибели 10 членов экипажа и уничтожению самолета. Дзяману заочно предъявлено обвинение в совершении преступления, предусмотренного п. «б» ч. 3 ст. 205 УК РФ (террористический акт, повлекший причинение смерти человеку), он объявлен в федеральный розыск. ⚡️ Подписывайтесь на Следком
Wild story of that Russian "turtle tank" recently captured in #Ukraine:
"Driver saw a Ukrainian M113, thinking it was his men, started to follow it. The M113 crew was a little surprised that a tank was chasing it … so it hid in a windbreak … The tank reached the windbreak, and the driver got out to ask how to get to Klishchiivka"
"Russia has begun firing Kalibr cruise missiles from warships in the Azov Sea as stationing them in the Black Sea is no longer safe enough" - There have been several (unconfirmed) claims #Ukraine used Neptune missiles to attack ground targets in Rostov and Krasnodar Krai, implying most if not all of the Azov Sea is in range 🤨
Unclear what they need for targeting, but… "[spokesperson for the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmytro] Pletenchuk cautioned Russian forces about feeling too safe in the Azov Sea.
"They forget that the Sea of Azov is also quite close to us"'
Recent strike on Yeysk claimed by RU source as "probably Neptune" cruise missiles
💥Удар по военному полигону г. Ейск. 21.06.2024 был нанесен удар по военному полигону 726-го учебного центра ПВО (в/ч 33859, Ейск) в Краснодарском крае. Учебный центр занимается обучением и подготовкой военнослужащих для использования БПЛА различных видов. Удар нанесен двумя крылатыми ракетами неустановленного типа (вероятно, Р-360 «Нептун»). Сообщается о гибели инструкторов и технического персонала из Елабуги (сотрудники завода, который занимается производством и обслуживанием аналога иранского «Shahed-136» - «Герань-2»). Фамилии – Гуня, Садреев, Кажанов. По информации источника, уничтожено: • «Shahed-136»/«Герань-2» - 20 ед.; • Ударный БПЛА «Ланцет» - 50 ед.; • Разведывательный БПЛА «ZALA» - 40 ед. О потерях среди военнослужащих информация отсутствует. @dosye_shpiona
Russian sources frequently make questionable claims about the weapon used, but damage to the building that wasn't completely leveled (presumably by secondary explosions of Shahed and Lancets whigh were seen in on-the-ground video) does seem suggestive of a single warhead larger than the typical Ukrainian UAVs. AFAIK we haven't seen any confirmed Neptune debris though
https://kyivindependent.com/satellite-images-show-russias-shahed-warehouse-destruction/
"Head of Ukraine's EU negotiating group: Ukraine will fulfil Hungary's 11 demands regarding national minorities" - Congratulations to Ukraine, who are on the verge of unlocking Hungary's next set of 11 demands!
NYT manages decent story on #Ukraine #Drone industry and the rise of more autonomous systems without getting too deep into #AI hype or skynet panic. IMO discussion around this is often muddied by people lumping everything from basic image tracking (functionally equivalent to a IR homing SAM from the 60s) to full autonomy under the "AI" label.
Could be coincidence but seems like there's been a qualitative change in #Ukraine's #UAV capability against ammo depots far from the front lines. They've had the range for a long time, but maybe not the accuracy to get things cooking off with a few relatively small munitions
Operatives reportedly set fire to a depot in the oblast's Olkhovatsky district, located some 70 kilometers (43 miles) from the border with Ukraine's Luhansk Oblast. The fire resulted in an explosion, the agency said.
Putin's mission to keep Russia safe from the supposed NATO threat racks up another success!
Following discussions ahead of the NATO Summit, the governments of the United States and Germany released the following joint statement: The United States will begin episodic deployments of the long-range fires capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany in 2026, as part of planning for enduring stationing of these capabilities in the future. When…
There's been a lot of reporting that this statement means Ukraine can use Storm Shadow against targets in Russia (and could under the previous UK government), but IMO the absence of any credible reports of Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory strongly suggests otherwise
The missiles are "obviously to be used in accordance with international humanitarian law" and "for defensive purposes," but "it is for Ukraine to decide how to deploy (them) for those defensive purposes," U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said during the NATO summit in Washington.
🤨 "This morning, I learned about the permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets in Russian territory"
But it the statement was reported as continuing the previous policy… I guess we can expect a walk-back or kinetic confirmation pretty shortly
I held my first meeting with the new UK Prime Minister @Keir_Starmer. I thanked Prime Minister Starmer for all the UK’s military and financial assistance provided to our country. This morning, I learned about the permission to use Storm Shadow missiles against military targets
"The pro-Russian Fighterbomber telegram channel, associated with the Russian Air and Space Force, has published recordings of radio communications where Beriev A-50 AEW&C aircraft operators assist Su-34 bomber pilots in evading incoming Patriot missiles"
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-july-10-12-2024 (who link https://x.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1810867667621830674)
Reed Mideke
Ben Brockert
