As predicted (https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112039463358735064), it's happening: "In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles"
R-73 seems like a good fit: Good off axis capability, doesn't require radar, no worries about western suppliers complaining or having tech captured. Supply might be an issue, but numbers needed for #USV missions should be pretty small
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1787486896232321173

OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) on X
In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles.
Based on the footage, some Ukrainian USVs now possess a nascent SAM capability, likely able to target low and slow Russian helicopters.
X (formerly Twitter)Also of note, one or two R-73s would be well within the payload capability of some of those light aircraft #UAV conversions #Ukraine has been using recently π€
Remote control SkyRanger or A-22 unlikely to win any dogfights, but ambushing Russian aircraft who think they're safely behind the lines seems quite plausible
Also as noted in that
@osinttechnical thread, an M-24 went down last month off shore of Crimea in unclear circumstancesπ€
"Russia may be switching sides in the Sudanese civil war to support the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)"π€¨ Possibly an awkward moment for the Ukrainian HUR operatives who were (allegedly) helping the SAF
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-6-2024Institute for the Study of War
The Kremlin appears to be re-intensifying a reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making using nuclear threats and diplomatic manipulation. Reflexive control is a key element of Russiaβs hybrid warfare toolkit β it is a tactic that relies
Institute for the Study of WarOn the 804th day of Putin's 3-day special military operation, Russia is visually confirmed to have lost at least 3000 tanks
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
According to Global Firepower's (not terribly reliable) list, only seven countries in the world currently posses more tanks than Russia has lost in Ukraine
https://www.globalfirepower.com/armor-tanks-total.phpCombat Tank Fleet Strength by Country (2024)
Ranking total combat tank fleet strength by country, from highest to lowest.
On the ground reporting from James Rushton "Both sides have invested heavily in electronic warfare in an attempt to combat the otherβs FPV drones"
Interesting we haven't seen more development of kinetic systems specifically designed for small drones, seems like something that could reliably pop FPVs with 100' or so would radically change the balance, and shouldn't be impossible technologically
https://jamesrushton.substack.com/p/the-evolution-of-fight-how-the-use

The evolution of fight; how the use of drones in Ukraine is changing warfare forever
Pictured: Ukrainian FPV drones await delivery to a military unit at an undisclosed location just behind the frontline Iβm at a location ten kilometres behind the front line, speaking with βProfessor,β the callsign of a soldier from Ukraineβs elite Separate Presidential Brigade of the National Guard. βIn the last six months, this war has completely changed,β Professor offered his stark assessment. The Ukrainian soldier was referring specifically to the proliferation of FPV β βfirst person viewβ β drones on the battlefield. These unmanned aerial vehicles are small, inexpensive, and so deadly that their deployment en masse by both Ukraine and Russia is having an outsized impact on the battlefield.
Notes from KyivThe idea that Ukraine shouldn't be allowed to hit sites directly used to attack them was always absurd, but it's especially absurd now
(I don't think the exact parameters of the current policy have ever been spelled out, there's been some statements to the effect counter battery is allowed, but it's pretty clear they aren't allowed to use GMLRS to hit launch sites or anything like that) https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970
Ukrainska Pravda has published an English translation of their history of the Liutyi long range attack
#UAV, used for many of the refinery strikes
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/05/13/7455462/
Sanctioned for targets 1000 km away. Story of Liutyi (Fierce) Ukrainian long-range drone which burns Russian refineries
Ukrainska PravdaUkraine has the opportunity to build funniest exploding
#USV of all time (yeah, they're probably better off pocketing the cash and buying regular onesβ¦)
https://kyivindependent.com/medvechuks-yacht-officially-transferred-to-ukrainian-state/
Medvechuk's yacht officially transferred to Ukrainian state
The Royal Romance, a 92-meter (300-foot) luxury yacht worth an estimated 200 million euros ($218 million), was seized by Croatian authorities in March 2022.
The Kyiv IndependentBelbek airfield in temporarily occupied Crimea on fire for the second night in a row. Russian propagandists claim ATACMS were shot down, for the second night in a row Β―\_(γ)_/Β―
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20811579Π ΠΠ Π Π€ ΡΠΎΠΎΠ±ΡΠΈΠ»ΠΈ ΠΎΠ± ΡΠ½ΠΈΡΡΠΎΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠ΅Ρ ATACMS Π² ΠΡΡΠΌΡ
ΠΡ
ΡΠ±ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ ΡΡΠ΅Π΄ΡΡΠ²Π°ΠΌΠΈ ΠΠΠ
Π’ΠΠ‘Π‘Interesting read on the state of electronic warfare in Ukraine. Apparently a large part done by small teams of volunteers supporting individual units, because (google translate) "A small trench EW has a small margin, and large enterprises are not interested in doing itβ¦ Small trench REBs have a cost price of $1,000, and then they need to be guaranteed, serviced and repairedβ¦"
https://ain.ua/2024/05/15/flash-on-electronic-warfare/"Also, large manufacturers do not like to deal with the state. Because everyone knows that today you are saving the country, then in a year SAP, NABU, SBU will come to you, and they will accuse you of overpricing or corruption, because you sold this device not for $1,000, but for $2,000"
"A separate question for small manufacturers will be a question from the authorities in the future: where did you get the modules for electronic devices? And in our country, 100% of all small electronic devices work on Chinese modules. Of course, all these modules are brought here semi-smuggled. It is officially forbidden to import them into the country, because these modules are marked as special vehicles"
"These are actually radio emitting devices that transmit and also emit interference, so they cannot be brought into the country just like that. But nowadays no one follows these bureaucratic procedures. We have a war and we need these modules, so now the government turns a blind eye to it. Therefore, the supply of modules to Ukraine, as before, takes place in violation of the legislation"

Damage To Russia's Belbek Air Base In Crimea Seen After Ukrainian Strikes
Ukrainian attacks this week targeted a portion of the flightline at Belbek Air Base where Russian MiG-31 interceptors regularly park.
The War Zone"A missile struck the Novorossiysk port and caused a fire to break out, residents said" π
~350 km from the front line, in Russia would be new if it was actually a missile.
Claimed UK policy allowing strikes in Russia in effect? Stray Russian AD? Something new?
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-novorossiysk-port-oil-depot-hit-in-overnight-attack/

Russian media: Novorossiysk port, oil depot hit in overnight attack
Drones and missiles struck an oil refinery and seaport in the Russian city of Novorossiysk in the early hours of May 17, causing explosions and power outages, the Russian Telegram news channel Astra reported.
The Kyiv IndependentTuapse refinery was previously hit Jan 25, resumed production May 6 (
https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-tuapse-refinery-hit-by-drone-resumes-work-after-3-months-of-repairs/). Hit again May 17. One-off strikes never seemed likely to make a very significant impact, but a repeat rate like that could become a big deal pretty quickly. Of course, we don't know the extent of damage this time
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims/
Reuters: Tuapse refinery hit by drone resumes work after 3 months of repairs
Rosneft's Tuapse oil refinery has resumed processing after sustaining damage from a drone strike in January. Repairs were reportedly completed at the facility's primary oil refining unit at the end of April.
The Kyiv Independent"Starlink devices - satellite internet the Ukrainian military relies on for basic communication - failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russiaβs invasion in February 2022" - Likely not the explanation, but notable the new Kharkiv offensive did start around the same time as the recent solar storm, which was reported to have impacted Starlink to some extent π€
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/kharkive-defenses-ukraine-russia-reinvasion/
#GiftArticle #GiftLink

Second Russian invasion of Kharkiv caught Ukraine unprepared
Despite months of complaints from troops over shortages and fatigue, Kyiv has been slow to ramp up mobilization, leaving some areas of the front critically understaffed.
The Washington PostAnother R-73 surface launch variant appears, this time on a Osa-AKM
https://t.me/vanguard_spacepro/13656


VANGUARD βͺοΈ
ΠΠ 9Π33ΠΠ3 Π·Ρ ΡΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄Ρ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠ»Π΅ΠΊΡΡ "ΠΡΠ°-ΠΠΠ" Π·Ρ Π²ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠ΅ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ Π -73 Π·Π°ΠΌΡΡΡΡ ΡΡΠ°ΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΠΠΠ 9Π33Π3
Π€ΠΎΡΠΎ Π½Π΅ Π½ΠΎΠ²Π΅, Π°Π»Π΅ Π΄ΠΎ ΡΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠ°ΠΉΠΆΠ΅ Π½Π΅ ΡΡΠ³ΡΡΡΠ²Π°Π»ΠΎ Π² ΡΠ½ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠ°ΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎΠΌΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΡΠΎΡΡ, ΡΠΎΠΌΡ Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΠΈΠ»ΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ»ΠΈΡΠΈΡΡ Π½ΠΈΠΌ Ρ ΡΡΠΎΡ
ΠΈ ΠΊΡΠ°ΡΡΠΉ ΡΠΊΠΎΡΡΡ. Π ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΊΠ°Ρ
ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΎΡ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΡΠ½ΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΡ, Π½Π° ΡΡΠ°Π½Π΄Π°ΡΡΠ½Ρ ΠΠ Π±ΡΠ»ΠΈ Π²ΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Ρ ΠΠΠ£-73 ΡΠ° Π΄ΠΎΠ΄Π°ΡΠΊΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΠΎΠ±Π»Π°Π΄Π½Π°Π½Π½Ρ, Π΄Π»Ρ Π·Π΄ΡΠΉΡΠ½Π΅Π½Π½Ρ Π½Π°Π²Π΅Π΄Π΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ° Π·Π°Ρ
ΠΎΠΏΠ»Π΅Π½Π½Ρ ΡΡΠ»Ρ. Π ΡΠ΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ, Π΄Π°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΡΠΊΡ ΡΡΠΎΡ
ΠΈ Π·ΡΠΎΡΠ»Π° (Π·Π°Π²Π΄ΡΠΊΠΈ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΡΠΉ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠ΅ΡΡ). Π’Π°ΠΊΠΈΠΌ ΡΠΈΠ½ΠΎΠΌ Π²ΠΈΡΡΡΡΡΡΡΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ° Π· Π½Π΅ΡΡΠ°ΡΠ΅Ρ Π·Π΅Π½ΡΡΠ½ΠΈΡ
ΡΠ°ΠΊΠ΅Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΠ Π "ΠΡΠ°-ΠΠΠ", ΡΠΊΡ ΠΌΠΈ Π΄ΠΎ ΡΡΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π·Π°ΠΊΡΠΏΠΎΠ²ΡΠ²Π°Π»ΠΈ Π² ΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠ½ ΠΠ»ΠΈΠ·ΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π‘Ρ
ΠΎΠ΄Ρ ΡΠ° ΠΡΡΠΈΠΊΠΈ. ΠΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡΠΈΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎ Π΅ΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Π½ΡΡΡΡ Π·Π°ΡΠ°Π½ΠΎ ΡΠ° Π½Π΅ Π²Π°ΡΡΠΎ, Ρ
ΠΎΡΠ° ΡΠ°ΠΌΡ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ΅Π±Π΅, ΠΌΠΈ Π²ΠΆΠ΅ Π²ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²ΠΊΠΈ Π·ΡΠΎΠ±ΠΈΠ»ΠΈ
ΠΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΡΠ½ΡΠ·Π°ΡΡΡ Π±ΡΠ»Π° ΡΠ΅Π°Π»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Π° ΡΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠ½ΡΡΠΊΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΡΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ·Π° ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΎΡ FrankenSAM. Π ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠΌΡ, Π΄ΠΎΡΠ²ΡΠ΄ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π²ΠΈΠΊΠΎΡΠΈΡΡΠ°Π½Π½Ρ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠ΅Ρ "ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΡΡΡΡ-ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΡΡΡΡ" ΠΌΠ°Ρ Π½Π΅ Π»ΠΈΡΠ΅ Π£ΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠ½Π°. ΠΠ΄ΠΈΠ½ Π· ΡΡΠ΄ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΡΠΈΠΊΠ»Π°Π΄ΡΠ²β ΠΠ½Π΄ΡΡ. ΠΠ° Π΄ΠΎΠ΄Π°ΡΡ, ΡΠΊΡΠ°ΡΠ½ΡΡΠΊΡ ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΡΡΠΈ Π½Π°ΠΌΠ°Π³Π°ΡΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΡΠ²Π°ΡΠΈ ΡΡ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠ΅ΡΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΌΠΎΡΡΡΠΊΡ Π΄ΡΠΎΠ½ΠΈ.
VANGUARD
#ΠΠΠ #ΠΠ Π #ΠΡΠ°_ΠΠΠ #Π _73
Telegram#Ukraine equipping SeaBaby #USV with GRADs π€¨
spread has got to be pretty wild firing from the deck of a speedboat on open water, hard to see it being effective against land targets. Maybe distracting deck gunners in the last few hundred meters of an attack run on a ship?
https://kyivindependent.com/the-sbu-has-a-new-weapon-grad-equipped-sea-baby-drones/

Source: SBU has a new weapon β Grad-equipped Sea Baby drones
Naval drones used by the SBU have hit several Russian warships but until now have been kamikaze drones that explode on impact or in the near vicinity of a target.
The Kyiv IndependentNow if those tubes were Brimstones or APKWS and you had a friendly UAV with a laserβ¦
WaPo with a big story on the state of GPS jamming in #Ukraine. Explains why Ukraine started hitting apparently lower value targets more with GMLRS a while back.
Seems like there'd be a lot of value in a home-on-jam modules that can plug into existing avionics (reported elsewhere to be in work for JDAMs).
https://wapo.st/44V7Cd7
#GiftArticle #GiftLink

Russian jamming leaves some high-tech U.S. weapons ineffective in Ukraine
Confidential Ukrainian assessments obtained by The Washington Post show how accuracy rates of some Western weapons fell after Russian jamming disrupted guidance systems.
The Washington Post
Russia Is Increasingly Blocking Ukraineβs Starlink Service
Russia has deployed advanced tech to interfere with Elon Muskβs satellite internet service, Ukrainian officials said, leading to more outages on the northern front battle line.
The New York TimesRussians finally moving from tires and pained decoys to aircraft shelters of some kind. While the construction isn't clear, doesn't seem like it should take much to significantly reduce risk from #Ukraine's typical attack UAVs. Even if it's not strong enough to survive a direct hit (which seems likely), neighboring aircraft would be at much less risk, and of course, it makes it much harder to tell where the aircraft are
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/29/7458227/

Russians construct protective hangars for aircraft 300 km from border with Ukraine
Ukrainska PravdaAlso, temu's targeted advertising is on point, though I suspect the Russians bought a higher end model
Official-ish confirmation 'no restriction on Ukraine using U.S.-supplied air defenses to shoot down Russian missiles or fighter jets over Russian territory βif they pose a threat to Ukraine"' (as it obviously should be, but there were rumors US objected)
And yeah, the US is understandably not happy about attacks on strategic early warning sites, which likely have little or no direct role in the war against #Ukraine https://wapo.st/4ch10bN
#GiftArticle #GiftLink

U.S. concerned about Ukraine strikes on Russian nuclear radar stations
Washington conveyed to Kyiv that attacks on Russian early-warning systems could be destabilizing.
The Washington PostOne of the big questions when the Czech initiative was announced, was "how can they find all these shells when US/UK etc couldn't"? And one obvious answer was that the sources were sketchy technically, politically, or both: "According to Strnad, 50% of the shells acquired by his company from Africa and Asia were in such a state that they could not be sent straight away to Ukraine without further work" (that doesn't mean it wasn't worthwhile, but TANSTAAFL)
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-may-receive-up-to-100-000-shells-next-month-under-prague-led-initiative-czech-official-says/

Ukraine may receive up to 100,000 shells next month under Prague-led initiative, Czech official says
To provide Ukraine with 1.5 million of shells this year, 1.7 billion euros ($1.8 billion) will be needed, said Tomas Kopecny, the Czech envoy for Ukraine's reconstruction.
The Kyiv IndependentFormer Ukrainian MP (and current head of the State Agency for Restoration and Infrastructure Development) Mustafa Nayyem not hedging against a 2nd Trump term
Russian FPV vs (possibly already disabled) Ukrainian USV. I still suspect it's only a matter of time before we see USVs used as UAV motherships
https://www.twz.com/news-features/russian-fpv-drone-seen-attacking-ukrainian-uncrewed-surface-vessel-for-the-first-time
Russian FPV Drone Seen Attacking Ukrainian Uncrewed Surface Vessel For The First Time
The FPV drone strike on a kamikaze USV is the latest example of rapidly evolving drone-on-drone warfare in Ukraine.
The War Zone"Zelenskiy made clear he wanted to use long-range weapons such as the UK-made Storm Shadow missiles. He said that, despite reports to the contrary, the UK had not given β100% permissionβ to do so" - Obvious corroboration is that there have been zero Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory since Cameron's statement
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/31/volodymyr-zelenskiy-russian-troops-have-been-laughing-at-and-hunting-ukrainiansVolodymyr Zelenskiy: Russian troops are laughing at and βhuntingβ Ukrainians
Exclusive interview: Ukrainian president says US delaying use of western weapons on targets inside Russia has cost lives
The GuardianIn addition to US and other allies views, it may be that UK personnel are directly involved in the actual strike planning, as was hinted in the leaked discussion of Taurus, which would be a significantly different posture than just say "yeah, go ahead and use it"
"not one but two drones are launched: the FPV for hitting the target and the retranslator: a DJI Mavic equipped with a powerful antenna that enables the FPV to fly much further"
https://kyivindependent.com/we-took-out-so-many-of-them-ukraine-stabilizes-kharkiv-front-after-brutal-russian-offensive/
βWe took out so many of them:β Ukraine stabilizes Kharkiv front after brutal Russian offensive
Editorβs note: In accordance with the security protocols of the Ukrainian military, soldiers featured in this story are identified by first names and callsigns only.
KHARKIV OBLAST β In battles fought under a sky swarming with enemy drones, even the most minimal movement, even the quickest dash from one house to another, is more often spotted than not.
βLook, you can see three of them, those black figures moving down the street,β says Nazar, βArtist,β a softly-spoken young artillery commander
The Kyiv IndependentAnother W for strategic genius Vladimir Vladimirovitch: Attack Kharkiv ostensibly to create a "buffer zone" to protect Belgorod.
Result: Ukraine now allowed to target Belgorod with Excalibur, GMLRS and DPICM
https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-may-29-31-2024

Sitrep for May 29-31, 2024 (as of 8:30 a.m. UTC+3)
The United States has officially allowed Ukraine to use Western weapons to attack targets on Russian territory, albeit a small part...
TeletypeMore Osa + R-73 frankenSAM, seen here launching the standard 9M33 missile. As noted in the article, the command guided 9M33 and IR homing R-73 may each be favored for different types of targets, and integrating AIM-9 shouldn't be terribly different from the R-73
https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/u_zsu_nareshti_ofitsijno_pokazali_zrk_osa_z_novimi_raketami_video-15549.html
Π£ ΠΠ‘Π£ Π½Π°ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΠΎΡΡΡΡΠΉΠ½ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠΊΠ°Π·Π°Π»ΠΈ ΠΠ Π "ΠΡΠ°" Π· Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΠΌΠΈ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠ΅ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ (Π²ΡΠ΄Π΅ΠΎ) | Defense Express
Π ΠΎΠ·ΡΠΈΡΠ΅Π½Π½Ρ Π½ΠΎΠΌΠ΅Π½ΠΊΠ»Π°ΡΡΡΠΈ ΡΠ°ΠΊΠ΅Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ ΠΠ Π "ΠΡΠ°" Π·Π° ΡΠ°Ρ
ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΊ Π -73 ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΎΠΆ ΠΏΡΡΠΌΠΎ Π³ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΡΠΈΡΡ ΠΏΡΠΎ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ»ΠΈΠ²ΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ°ΡΡΡ ΠΉ AIM-9
I've often complained about stories on western electronics in Russian weapons not having detail about the specific components. GUR now has a public database (and yeah, as expected, a lot is super common COTS stuff that's essentially unsanctionable)
https://war-sanctions.gur.gov.ua/en/components

Foreign components in weapons
Thousands of electronic components, originally intended to improve lives and fuel development, are perversely repurposed by aggressors into instruments of violence. These weapons rely heavily on foreign-made components. Disrupting this supply chain is critical to impede their ability to fight, occupy and kill.
War & SanctionsGuy who blocked #Ukraine aid for ~6 months for domestic political reasons, directly leading to significant losses of personnel and territory, is suddenly Very Concerned about restrictions on how that aid is used π€ (but hey, given GOP will always claim Biden policy is terrible and wrong, it's certainly preferable to have them doing from the hawkish side)
https://kyivindependent.com/us-micromanaging-war-effort-in-ukraine-johnson-says/

US 'micromanaging' war effort in Ukraine, Speaker Johnson says
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he disagrees with imposing restrictions on Kyiv regarding the use of U.S.-supplied weapons and criticized the Biden administration's "micromanaging the war effort in Ukraine," Voice of America reported on June 5.
The Kyiv IndependentFrance previously "also denied separate reports that a cadre of Ukrainian pilots were already being trained to fly Mirage 2000s ahead of an expected transfer" - Most likely explanation is it was true at the time, but OTOH, the "by the end of this year" timeline would be a lot more credible if the program has already been in work for a while
https://www.twz.com/air/mirage-2000-fighters-to-be-sent-to-ukraine-from-france
Mirage 2000 Fighters To Be Sent To Ukraine From France
Mirage 2000s are now set to be second type of Western combat jet to enter Ukrainian service after the F-16.
The War Zone
Ukraine hits Russian Su-57 jet for first time, military intelligence says
The aircraft was reportedly damaged after a strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region in Southern Russia, 589 kilometers from the front line.
The Kyiv Independent