Simon BrookeJul 5, 2024

OK, the first thing to say about #GeneralElectionUK 2024 is this: #Labour lost, and lost badly. They lost, in fact, HALF A MILLION VOTES compared to their 2019 result.

All the major parties, including the #LibDems, lost. Labour just lost less badly than either the #Conservatives or the #SNP.

#UKPol
#ScotPol

https://www.journeyman.cc/blog/posts-output/2024-07-06-the-election-and-after/

The election, and after

In any election in a reasonably democratic voting system — such as that used for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senedd, for example — the number of seats in the resulting parliament assigned to a party is proportional to the number seats they won. So any party or coalition capable of forming a government must have a proportion of the vote close to, or exceeding, a majority. Britain isn't like that, of course. Britain isn't a well-functioning anything at all, still less a well functioning democracy.

The Fool on the Hill
Show threadSimon Brooke

The second thing is that all these parties will now tack right. #Labour's right wingers are in the ascendant (falsely) claiming a victory -- and will have to contrast themselves against a group of #Greens and independents to their left.

The less toxic #Tories have disproportionately lost their seats, leaving more extreme Tories; who will seek to reclaim votes from #Reform. The #LibDems will target more ex-Tories. And the #SNP will try to win votes back from Labour.

#GeneralElectionUK

Jul 5, 2024 at 2:54pmWeb
Show threadSimon BrookeJul 5, 2024

The third thing is that -- at least here -- the poorest and most disadvantaged had lowest turnout. Now, you may say that the lumpenproletariat never vote, that they are systematically uninformed, that that's their choice, and so on. But none of the parties had an offering that was attractive to the marginalised, and that was THEIR choice.

40% of REGISTERED voters didn't vote at all, which is larger than the number who voted for the "winning" party. There's LOTS of votes to be won there.

Show threadSimon BrookeJul 5, 2024

Finally: to those responding saying 'well, ACTUALLY, #Labour DID win because they've got the majority of seats in Westminster': no.

The Labour party won one third of the votes in an election in which under two thirds of the electorate voted. Fewer than ONE IN FIVE voters in Britain support this government. It has no mandate to do anything. If it tries, then, like Thatcher with the poll tax, it will find the difference between Westminster games and real politics.

To govern, you need consent.

Show threadYogthosJul 5, 2024
@simon_brooke my hot take is that first past the post systems are fundamentally at odds with having a functional democracy
Show threadSimon BrookeJul 6, 2024
@yogthos very strong agree. In fact they're designed to prevent functioning democracy.
Show threadYogthosJul 6, 2024
@simon_brooke indeed it's a feature, not a bug
Show threadAndiiJul 7, 2024
@yogthos @simon_brooke
Hence why Hungary's Orban engineered a new voting system based on FPTP. It's way more likely to produce right wing governemnts.
Show threadYogthosJul 7, 2024
@AndiiB @simon_brooke all capitalist societies produce governments that are fundamentally right wing because they represent the interests of capital first and foremost, it's just more obvious in some places than others
Show threadGail near EdinburghJul 6, 2024
@simon_brooke So who should govern?
Who has got consent?
And I don’t mean you explaining how the voting system is flawed, I mean, if not the Labour government, who should govern today?
Show threadSimon BrookeJul 6, 2024
@gailnearedinburgh A party -- or coalition -- with more than 50% of the votes cast. Which, in a proportional system (like #Holyrood's), you get automatically. And we need much higher turnout, for which we need policy programmed which will actually make the lives of ordinary folk better. For which we need politicians who represent ordinary folk -- not Oxford PPE graduates.
Show threadGail near EdinburghJul 24, 2024
@simon_brooke of course. But that would mean the ‘winning’ party hand over their advantage (for want of a better word). That’s never going to happen whichever colour gets in.
So here we are.
Show threadAdvanced Persistent TeapotJul 6, 2024
@simon_brooke ayup. Labour won because people are sick of the Tories, not because they particularly want Labour
Show threadJonathan SchofieldJul 7, 2024

@http_error_418 aye https://mastodon.social/@urlyman/112740275422799267

@simon_brooke

Show threadDave RobinsonJul 7, 2024
@simon_brooke your calculations ignore people like me who voted LibDem but wanted to vote Green. Without PR, any attempt to analyse or make sense of the outcome is a flawed exercise.
#PRNow
Show threadSimon BrookeJul 7, 2024

@dave true, but it's the best data we have. I voted #Green (in a three way marginal) knowing my vote wouldn't significantly affect the outcome this time, because I think it's more important for ALL the parties to know that there are a significant number of folk who would actually like the planet to be saved, than which particular one of three almost identical parties got in here.

Yes, I am describing #Conservatives, #Labour and #SNP as 'almost identical'. They're in descending order of evil...

Show threadHarry PercivalJul 7, 2024
@dave @simon_brooke i think i agree with this. Predictions were for a landslide labour win, many seats were safe labour victories, how many people stayed home because they were happy to let labour win, and just couldnt be bothered to add 1 more vote? iow what percentage of voters were actually expressing tacit *support* for labour? You just cant tell.
Show threadKevin LydaJul 7, 2024
@simon_brooke so Labour should just continue existing Tory policies with no change?
Show threadSimon BrookeJul 7, 2024
@lyda that is exactly what #Labour say they're going to do. Do you think they're lying?
Show threadreclaimed alicmaJul 7, 2024
@simon_brooke and also the youngest age group had by far the least turnout....something we should bear in mind as the higher education system collapses and school leaver job prospects diminish even further. Oh...and as we cook the planet...
Show threadHeavenlyPossumJul 7, 2024

@simon_brooke

It’s my understanding that when foreigners refrain from voting, it’s in recognition of the illegitimacy of the electoral system, but when people in your own country refrain from voting, it’s because they’re lazy and treasonous.

Show threadDudley of Yesterzine Jul 7, 2024
@simon_brooke Yep, someone said not voting means you're ok with the status quo. I agree with you, it's that they didn't think anyone available would change the status quo.
Show threadNatashaJul 7, 2024
@yesterzine @simon_brooke Those not voting probably also felt their vote wouldn’t count (and let’s face it that is often true), as well as that no party had their views in mind or anything to offer for the future.
Show threadDudley of Yesterzine Jul 7, 2024
@nusher @simon_brooke Understandable, although I have just worked out my area flipped for the first time in 100 years despite Labour getting 250 fewer votes here than in 2019. (I'll admit to being one of the 250 they lost)
Show threadMarjorieRJul 5, 2024

@simon_brooke lets hope there won't be any further tacking right: there's absolutely no need. And policy-wise LDs are actually to the left of Labour.

In the South West the only thing that stopped an almost complete Tory wipeout* was the unwillingness of some Labour, LD and Green voters to tactically switch to the other party.

* 2 of the 5 surviving Tory seats had really small majorities (61 and 131) and in the others their majority was much less than the vote for the other 2 more progressive parties not placed 2nd.