Simon BrookeJul 5, 2024

OK, the first thing to say about #GeneralElectionUK 2024 is this: #Labour lost, and lost badly. They lost, in fact, HALF A MILLION VOTES compared to their 2019 result.

All the major parties, including the #LibDems, lost. Labour just lost less badly than either the #Conservatives or the #SNP.

#UKPol
#ScotPol

https://www.journeyman.cc/blog/posts-output/2024-07-06-the-election-and-after/

The election, and after

In any election in a reasonably democratic voting system — such as that used for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Senedd, for example — the number of seats in the resulting parliament assigned to a party is proportional to the number seats they won. So any party or coalition capable of forming a government must have a proportion of the vote close to, or exceeding, a majority. Britain isn't like that, of course. Britain isn't a well-functioning anything at all, still less a well functioning democracy.

The Fool on the Hill
Show threadSimon BrookeJul 5, 2024

The second thing is that all these parties will now tack right. #Labour's right wingers are in the ascendant (falsely) claiming a victory -- and will have to contrast themselves against a group of #Greens and independents to their left.

The less toxic #Tories have disproportionately lost their seats, leaving more extreme Tories; who will seek to reclaim votes from #Reform. The #LibDems will target more ex-Tories. And the #SNP will try to win votes back from Labour.

#GeneralElectionUK

Show threadSimon BrookeJul 5, 2024

The third thing is that -- at least here -- the poorest and most disadvantaged had lowest turnout. Now, you may say that the lumpenproletariat never vote, that they are systematically uninformed, that that's their choice, and so on. But none of the parties had an offering that was attractive to the marginalised, and that was THEIR choice.

40% of REGISTERED voters didn't vote at all, which is larger than the number who voted for the "winning" party. There's LOTS of votes to be won there.

Show threadSimon BrookeJul 5, 2024

Finally: to those responding saying 'well, ACTUALLY, #Labour DID win because they've got the majority of seats in Westminster': no.

The Labour party won one third of the votes in an election in which under two thirds of the electorate voted. Fewer than ONE IN FIVE voters in Britain support this government. It has no mandate to do anything. If it tries, then, like Thatcher with the poll tax, it will find the difference between Westminster games and real politics.

To govern, you need consent.

Show threadDave Robinson
@simon_brooke your calculations ignore people like me who voted LibDem but wanted to vote Green. Without PR, any attempt to analyse or make sense of the outcome is a flawed exercise.
#PRNow
Jul 7, 2024 at 6:58amWeb
Show threadSimon BrookeJul 7, 2024

@dave true, but it's the best data we have. I voted #Green (in a three way marginal) knowing my vote wouldn't significantly affect the outcome this time, because I think it's more important for ALL the parties to know that there are a significant number of folk who would actually like the planet to be saved, than which particular one of three almost identical parties got in here.

Yes, I am describing #Conservatives, #Labour and #SNP as 'almost identical'. They're in descending order of evil...

Show threadHarry PercivalJul 7, 2024
@dave @simon_brooke i think i agree with this. Predictions were for a landslide labour win, many seats were safe labour victories, how many people stayed home because they were happy to let labour win, and just couldnt be bothered to add 1 more vote? iow what percentage of voters were actually expressing tacit *support* for labour? You just cant tell.