Reed MidekePreviously: "Despite earlier media reports suggesting that ATACMS long-range missiles would be included in the package, the missiles were notably absent from the Pentagon's list of weapons provided" https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-300-million-defense-aid-package-for-ukraine/ but as I noted (https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112086363167384232), the wording didn't actually specify the type, it just used the same "Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems" verbiage they used for GMLRS in the past
Politico "The Biden administration warned Russia that attacking Ukraine’s energy grid and using North Korean-provided missiles would lead the U.S. to reconsider sending ATACMS to Ukraine" (Good: If you're going to restrict weapons in the name of "escalation management" those restrictions should also be subject to the other guy's behavior)
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-range-missiles-ukraine-00154110
Boring-sounding but probably significant inclusion in the latest #Ukraine package: "Airfield support equipment" https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3754238/biden-administration-announces-significant-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
More on that (presumed) #Ukraine UAV which crashed with an OFAB-100: It appears to be a SkyRanger (Originally a French ultralight design, also built / marketed by various others https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Best_Off_Skyranger), not the previously A-22 or purpose built drones, and was likely intended to drop the bomb rather than crashing into the target https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-appears-to-be-using-light-planes-converted-into-reusable-bomber-drones
At $30K for the airframe kit and probably not more than that for the UAV conversion, it'd cost less than a Javelin shot
Reportedly, footage of a Ukrainian #YAK52 shooting down a Russian UAV. Gunner in the back with a rifle seems fairly dubious, but a moderately high performance prop plane with modern sights seems like it could be pretty effective for Shahed hunting away from the front lines
Reportedly over Odesa, which should be safe from Russia AA… hopefully they have good communication with the local SAM crews 😬
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1784253644646318248
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1784253644646318248
"…Holod has revealed a significant increase in illegal arms trafficking in the Belgorod region. Presently, people can buy Kalashnikov assault rifles, hand grenades and even silenced pistols used by special forces for prices ranging from $300 to $350"
Remember at the start of the invasion, when Russian propagandists claimed western aid to #Ukraine would end up in the hands of criminals and terrorists in Europe? https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-april-29-30-2024
Remember at the start of the invasion, when Russian propagandists claimed western aid to #Ukraine would end up in the hands of criminals and terrorists in Europe? https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-april-29-30-2024
No doubt some eventually will if they haven't already, but so far it seems much more widespread in Russia
"Defense Ministry working to limit satellite imaging of Ukrainian territory"
Unless that work involves lasers, I suspect it effect will be limited (though making it more difficult for Russia to get their hands on western commercial imagery is probably worthwhile)
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-working-to-limit-satellite-imaging-of-ukrainian-territory/
Cameron's "Kyiv can use British weapons inside Russia" been circulating for about a day without a walk-back 🤨
If an actual policy change you'd expect some Storm Shadow strikes to follow shortly
As predicted (https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112039463358735064), it's happening: "In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles"
R-73 seems like a good fit: Good off axis capability, doesn't require radar, no worries about western suppliers complaining or having tech captured. Supply might be an issue, but numbers needed for #USV missions should be pretty small
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1787486896232321173
OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) on X
In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles. Based on the footage, some Ukrainian USVs now possess a nascent SAM capability, likely able to target low and slow Russian helicopters.
Also of note, one or two R-73s would be well within the payload capability of some of those light aircraft #UAV conversions #Ukraine has been using recently 🤔
Remote control SkyRanger or A-22 unlikely to win any dogfights, but ambushing Russian aircraft who think they're safely behind the lines seems quite plausible
Also as noted in that @osinttechnical thread, an M-24 went down last month off shore of Crimea in unclear circumstances🤔
"Russia may be switching sides in the Sudanese civil war to support the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)"🤨 Possibly an awkward moment for the Ukrainian HUR operatives who were (allegedly) helping the SAF https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-6-2024
Institute for the Study of War
The Kremlin appears to be re-intensifying a reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making using nuclear threats and diplomatic manipulation. Reflexive control is a key element of Russia’s hybrid warfare toolkit — it is a tactic that relies
On the 804th day of Putin's 3-day special military operation, Russia is visually confirmed to have lost at least 3000 tanks
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
According to Global Firepower's (not terribly reliable) list, only seven countries in the world currently posses more tanks than Russia has lost in Ukraine
https://www.globalfirepower.com/armor-tanks-total.php
https://www.globalfirepower.com/armor-tanks-total.php
On the ground reporting from James Rushton "Both sides have invested heavily in electronic warfare in an attempt to combat the other’s FPV drones"
Interesting we haven't seen more development of kinetic systems specifically designed for small drones, seems like something that could reliably pop FPVs with 100' or so would radically change the balance, and shouldn't be impossible technologically
https://jamesrushton.substack.com/p/the-evolution-of-fight-how-the-use
The evolution of fight; how the use of drones in Ukraine is changing warfare forever
Pictured: Ukrainian FPV drones await delivery to a military unit at an undisclosed location just behind the frontline I’m at a location ten kilometres behind the front line, speaking with “Professor,” the callsign of a soldier from Ukraine’s elite Separate Presidential Brigade of the National Guard. “In the last six months, this war has completely changed,” Professor offered his stark assessment. The Ukrainian soldier was referring specifically to the proliferation of FPV — “first person view” — drones on the battlefield. These unmanned aerial vehicles are small, inexpensive, and so deadly that their deployment en masse by both Ukraine and Russia is having an outsized impact on the battlefield.
The idea that Ukraine shouldn't be allowed to hit sites directly used to attack them was always absurd, but it's especially absurd now
(I don't think the exact parameters of the current policy have ever been spelled out, there's been some statements to the effect counter battery is allowed, but it's pretty clear they aren't allowed to use GMLRS to hit launch sites or anything like that) https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970
Ukrainska Pravda has published an English translation of their history of the Liutyi long range attack #UAV, used for many of the refinery strikes
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/05/13/7455462/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/05/13/7455462/
Ukraine has the opportunity to build funniest exploding #USV of all time (yeah, they're probably better off pocketing the cash and buying regular ones…) https://kyivindependent.com/medvechuks-yacht-officially-transferred-to-ukrainian-state/
Belbek airfield in temporarily occupied Crimea on fire for the second night in a row. Russian propagandists claim ATACMS were shot down, for the second night in a row ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20811579
Interesting read on the state of electronic warfare in Ukraine. Apparently a large part done by small teams of volunteers supporting individual units, because (google translate) "A small trench EW has a small margin, and large enterprises are not interested in doing it… Small trench REBs have a cost price of $1,000, and then they need to be guaranteed, serviced and repaired…"
https://ain.ua/2024/05/15/flash-on-electronic-warfare/
https://ain.ua/2024/05/15/flash-on-electronic-warfare/
"Also, large manufacturers do not like to deal with the state. Because everyone knows that today you are saving the country, then in a year SAP, NABU, SBU will come to you, and they will accuse you of overpricing or corruption, because you sold this device not for $1,000, but for $2,000"
"A separate question for small manufacturers will be a question from the authorities in the future: where did you get the modules for electronic devices? And in our country, 100% of all small electronic devices work on Chinese modules. Of course, all these modules are brought here semi-smuggled. It is officially forbidden to import them into the country, because these modules are marked as special vehicles"
"These are actually radio emitting devices that transmit and also emit interference, so they cannot be brought into the country just like that. But nowadays no one follows these bureaucratic procedures. We have a war and we need these modules, so now the government turns a blind eye to it. Therefore, the supply of modules to Ukraine, as before, takes place in violation of the legislation"
Confirmation a couple Mig 31s and a fuel depot successfully intercepted ATACMS at 0 AGL
"A missile struck the Novorossiysk port and caused a fire to break out, residents said" 👀
~350 km from the front line, in Russia would be new if it was actually a missile.
Claimed UK policy allowing strikes in Russia in effect? Stray Russian AD? Something new?
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-novorossiysk-port-oil-depot-hit-in-overnight-attack/
Tuapse refinery was previously hit Jan 25, resumed production May 6 (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-tuapse-refinery-hit-by-drone-resumes-work-after-3-months-of-repairs/). Hit again May 17. One-off strikes never seemed likely to make a very significant impact, but a repeat rate like that could become a big deal pretty quickly. Of course, we don't know the extent of damage this time
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims/
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims/
Reuters: Tuapse refinery hit by drone resumes work after 3 months of repairs
Rosneft's Tuapse oil refinery has resumed processing after sustaining damage from a drone strike in January. Repairs were reportedly completed at the facility's primary oil refining unit at the end of April.
"Starlink devices - satellite internet the Ukrainian military relies on for basic communication - failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russia’s invasion in February 2022" - Likely not the explanation, but notable the new Kharkiv offensive did start around the same time as the recent solar storm, which was reported to have impacted Starlink to some extent 🤔
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/kharkive-defenses-ukraine-russia-reinvasion/
Another R-73 surface launch variant appears, this time on a Osa-AKM https://t.me/vanguard_spacepro/13656
VANGUARD ⚪️
БМ 9А33БМ3 зі складу комплексу "Оса-АКМ" зі встановленими ракетами Р-73 замість штатних ЗКР 9М33М3 Фото не нове, але до цього майже не фігурувало в інформаційному просторі, тому вирішили поділитися ним у трохи кращій якості. В рамках такої модернізації, на стандартну БМ були встановлені АПУ-73 та додаткове обладнання, для здійснення наведення та захоплення цілі. В результаті, дальність пуску трохи зросла (завдяки новій ракеті). Таким чином вирішується проблема з нестачею зенітних ракет для ЗРК "Оса-АКМ", які ми до цього закуповували в країн Близького Сходу та Африки. Говорити про ефективність зарано та не варто, хоча самі для себе, ми вже висновки зробили Модернізація була реалізована українськими спеціалістами поза програмою FrankenSAM. В цілому, досвід такого використання ракет "повітря-повітря" має не лише Україна. Один з чудових прикладів– Індія. На додачу, українські спеціалісти намагаються інтегрувати ці ракети на морські дрони. VANGUARD #ППО #ЗРК #Оса_АКМ #Р_73
#Ukraine equipping SeaBaby #USV with GRADs 🤨
spread has got to be pretty wild firing from the deck of a speedboat on open water, hard to see it being effective against land targets. Maybe distracting deck gunners in the last few hundred meters of an attack run on a ship?
https://kyivindependent.com/the-sbu-has-a-new-weapon-grad-equipped-sea-baby-drones/
Now if those tubes were Brimstones or APKWS and you had a friendly UAV with a laser…
WaPo with a big story on the state of GPS jamming in #Ukraine. Explains why Ukraine started hitting apparently lower value targets more with GMLRS a while back.
Seems like there'd be a lot of value in a home-on-jam modules that can plug into existing avionics (reported elsewhere to be in work for JDAMs).
NYT corroborates the earlier report of Starlink jamming at the start of the Kharkiv offensive https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/technology/ukraine-russia-starlink.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uU0.pmna.AwapTby2TvhF&smid=url-share
Russians finally moving from tires and pained decoys to aircraft shelters of some kind. While the construction isn't clear, doesn't seem like it should take much to significantly reduce risk from #Ukraine's typical attack UAVs. Even if it's not strong enough to survive a direct hit (which seems likely), neighboring aircraft would be at much less risk, and of course, it makes it much harder to tell where the aircraft are
Also, temu's targeted advertising is on point, though I suspect the Russians bought a higher end model
Official-ish confirmation 'no restriction on Ukraine using U.S.-supplied air defenses to shoot down Russian missiles or fighter jets over Russian territory “if they pose a threat to Ukraine"' (as it obviously should be, but there were rumors US objected)
And yeah, the US is understandably not happy about attacks on strategic early warning sites, which likely have little or no direct role in the war against #Ukraine https://wapo.st/4ch10bN
One of the big questions when the Czech initiative was announced, was "how can they find all these shells when US/UK etc couldn't"? And one obvious answer was that the sources were sketchy technically, politically, or both: "According to Strnad, 50% of the shells acquired by his company from Africa and Asia were in such a state that they could not be sent straight away to Ukraine without further work" (that doesn't mean it wasn't worthwhile, but TANSTAAFL)
Former Ukrainian MP (and current head of the State Agency for Restoration and Infrastructure Development) Mustafa Nayyem not hedging against a 2nd Trump term
Russian FPV vs (possibly already disabled) Ukrainian USV. I still suspect it's only a matter of time before we see USVs used as UAV motherships
https://www.twz.com/news-features/russian-fpv-drone-seen-attacking-ukrainian-uncrewed-surface-vessel-for-the-first-time
https://www.twz.com/news-features/russian-fpv-drone-seen-attacking-ukrainian-uncrewed-surface-vessel-for-the-first-time
"Zelenskiy made clear he wanted to use long-range weapons such as the UK-made Storm Shadow missiles. He said that, despite reports to the contrary, the UK had not given “100% permission” to do so" - Obvious corroboration is that there have been zero Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory since Cameron's statement https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/31/volodymyr-zelenskiy-russian-troops-have-been-laughing-at-and-hunting-ukrainians
In addition to US and other allies views, it may be that UK personnel are directly involved in the actual strike planning, as was hinted in the leaked discussion of Taurus, which would be a significantly different posture than just say "yeah, go ahead and use it"
"not one but two drones are launched: the FPV for hitting the target and the retranslator: a DJI Mavic equipped with a powerful antenna that enables the FPV to fly much further" https://kyivindependent.com/we-took-out-so-many-of-them-ukraine-stabilizes-kharkiv-front-after-brutal-russian-offensive/
‘We took out so many of them:’ Ukraine stabilizes Kharkiv front after brutal Russian offensive
Editor’s note: In accordance with the security protocols of the Ukrainian military, soldiers featured in this story are identified by first names and callsigns only. KHARKIV OBLAST – In battles fought under a sky swarming with enemy drones, even the most minimal movement, even the quickest dash from one house to another, is more often spotted than not. “Look, you can see three of them, those black figures moving down the street,” says Nazar, “Artist,” a softly-spoken young artillery commander
Another W for strategic genius Vladimir Vladimirovitch: Attack Kharkiv ostensibly to create a "buffer zone" to protect Belgorod.
Result: Ukraine now allowed to target Belgorod with Excalibur, GMLRS and DPICM
15-10 👀
More Osa + R-73 frankenSAM, seen here launching the standard 9M33 missile. As noted in the article, the command guided 9M33 and IR homing R-73 may each be favored for different types of targets, and integrating AIM-9 shouldn't be terribly different from the R-73 https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/u_zsu_nareshti_ofitsijno_pokazali_zrk_osa_z_novimi_raketami_video-15549.html
I've often complained about stories on western electronics in Russian weapons not having detail about the specific components. GUR now has a public database (and yeah, as expected, a lot is super common COTS stuff that's essentially unsanctionable)
Foreign components in weapons
Thousands of electronic components, originally intended to improve lives and fuel development, are perversely repurposed by aggressors into instruments of violence. These weapons rely heavily on foreign-made components. Disrupting this supply chain is critical to impede their ability to fight, occupy and kill.
Guy who blocked #Ukraine aid for ~6 months for domestic political reasons, directly leading to significant losses of personnel and territory, is suddenly Very Concerned about restrictions on how that aid is used 🤔 (but hey, given GOP will always claim Biden policy is terrible and wrong, it's certainly preferable to have them doing from the hawkish side)
https://kyivindependent.com/us-micromanaging-war-effort-in-ukraine-johnson-says/
US 'micromanaging' war effort in Ukraine, Speaker Johnson says
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he disagrees with imposing restrictions on Kyiv regarding the use of U.S.-supplied weapons and criticized the Biden administration's "micromanaging the war effort in Ukraine," Voice of America reported on June 5.
France previously "also denied separate reports that a cadre of Ukrainian pilots were already being trained to fly Mirage 2000s ahead of an expected transfer" - Most likely explanation is it was true at the time, but OTOH, the "by the end of this year" timeline would be a lot more credible if the program has already been in work for a while https://www.twz.com/air/mirage-2000-fighters-to-be-sent-to-ukraine-from-france
Su-57 reportedly damaged on the ground 🤨
https://kyivindependent.com/hur-ukraine-hit-su-57-jet-for-first-time/
https://kyivindependent.com/hur-ukraine-hit-su-57-jet-for-first-time/
Helpfully confirmed by Russian air force associated telegram channel https://t.me/fighter_bomber/16995
Fighterbomber
Да, вчера аэродром в Ахтубинске подвергся атаке БПЛА. 3 штуки долетело. Осколками получил повреждения Су-57, сейчас определяется подлежит он восстановлению, или нет. Если нет, то это будет первая боевая потеря Су-57 в истории. Я еще раз подскажу. За цену только одного этого Су-57, укрытия от БПЛА можно было построить всем самолётам ОТА страны. Разумеется если по пути их не пиздить и не раздавать откаты. И на Лаос бы ещё осталось.
#Ukraine reportedly close to fielding a domestically produced guided glide bomb kit https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-to-start-testing-domestically-produced-guided-aerial-bombs/
Aside from the obvious benefit of supplementing limited JDAM and AASM Hammer supplies… remember that SkyRanger with an OFAB-100? The big UAV conversions pretty vulnerable to AD, but if you can lob a precision guided, difficult to shoot down munition from a few km away, chances of a hit should go up a lot
Range won't be nearly as good as launching from a fast jet (unless they come up with more Tu-141s or something) and getting in range well defended targets would likely be dicey, but it seems like you could put a lot of medium value targets far behind the front lines at risk
Interesting series of clips from US personnel involved in supporting Patriot deployment in #Ukraine, including the claim the A-50 hit in January was Patriot https://x.com/AirPowerNEW1/status/1799813374676783118
AirPower 2.0 (MIL_STD) (@AirPowerNEW1) on X
"We were tasked in Jan 2023 to deliver BMD capability to 🇺🇦..the training occurred at Fort Sill, and in April we conducted a validation exercise in 🇵🇱. #PATRIOT was transferred to protect Kyiv in late April & at 02:30 AM [May 04] it engaged the first ALBM " Col Rosanna Clemente
Mediazona and BBC Russian "obtained a complete list including the personal data of 19,547 dead Wagner fighters" including "call signs, dog tags and dates of death of each"
Over 17,000 were prisoners
https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/how-wagner-lost-17000-fighters-in-bakhmut
Companion Mediazona piece with more details: Wagner "spent around 108 billion roubles, or $1.2 billion" on payments to relatives of KIA fighters https://en.zona.media/article/2024/06/10/wagner
The price of Bakhmut. We reveal the staggering toll of Russia’s bloodiest battle since WW2 and Wagner’s inmates recruited to fight it
Yevgeny Prigozhin and his political strategists have spared no effort or expense to create an image of Wagner PMC as an effective and ruthless organisation that accomplishes its ob...
"The prisoners left the colony after receiving identical handwritten certificates stating that they were released by decree of the President of the Russian Federation “On Pardoning” as of a specific date or without one. These decrees are classified and not published anywhere"
Another W for master strategist Vladimir Vladimirovitch: Armenia officially leaving CSTO https://www.politico.eu/article/armenia-ends-military-alliance-with-russia-pm-nikol-pashinyan-confirms/
"the Russian Air Force has accidentally bombed Belgorod Oblast and the occupied territories of Ukraine at least 93 times over the past four months" https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/13/7460603/
