Reed Mideke
Context: A lot of secondary explosions at #Dzhankoy airbase in occupied #Crimea https://t.me/astrapress/53447
https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/did-mike-johnson-just-get-religion-on-ukraine
"Week-long ambush" preceded historic Russian Tu-22 bomber downing, Ukraine intel chief says, confirming S-200 use - Euromaidan Press
Ukraine's military intelligence chief reveals details of the successful operation to down a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber, confirms the use of the S-200 surface-to-air missile.
One can imagine replacing the 70s GNC with modern stuff would give you a fair bit of mass to play with. And if you can deliver it ballistically to the target area and have a modern seeker take over 🤔
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-obsolete-s-200-missile-systems-reportedly-back-on-track-to-hit-russian-targets/
Ukraine's obsolete S-200 missile systems reportedly back on track to hit Russian targets
The first Russian Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber was reportedly shot down by Ukraine and crashed over Russia's Stavropol Krai overnight on April 19. The aircraft was carrying out a combat mission when a Soviet-era S-200 anti-aircraft system shot it down, an intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent. The Russian Defense
HAH, they actually did it, "ammunition for HIMARS" in the March #Ukraine aid package included ATACMS
Politico "The Biden administration warned Russia that attacking Ukraine’s energy grid and using North Korean-provided missiles would lead the U.S. to reconsider sending ATACMS to Ukraine" (Good: If you're going to restrict weapons in the name of "escalation management" those restrictions should also be subject to the other guy's behavior)
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-range-missiles-ukraine-00154110
Reportedly, footage of a Ukrainian #YAK52 shooting down a Russian UAV. Gunner in the back with a rifle seems fairly dubious, but a moderately high performance prop plane with modern sights seems like it could be pretty effective for Shahed hunting away from the front lines
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1784253644646318248
Remember at the start of the invasion, when Russian propagandists claimed western aid to #Ukraine would end up in the hands of criminals and terrorists in Europe? https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-april-29-30-2024
"Defense Ministry working to limit satellite imaging of Ukrainian territory"
Unless that work involves lasers, I suspect it effect will be limited (though making it more difficult for Russia to get their hands on western commercial imagery is probably worthwhile)
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-working-to-limit-satellite-imaging-of-ukrainian-territory/
Cameron's "Kyiv can use British weapons inside Russia" been circulating for about a day without a walk-back 🤨
If an actual policy change you'd expect some Storm Shadow strikes to follow shortly
As predicted (https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112039463358735064), it's happening: "In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles"
R-73 seems like a good fit: Good off axis capability, doesn't require radar, no worries about western suppliers complaining or having tech captured. Supply might be an issue, but numbers needed for #USV missions should be pretty small
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1787486896232321173
OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) on X
In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles. Based on the footage, some Ukrainian USVs now possess a nascent SAM capability, likely able to target low and slow Russian helicopters.
Also of note, one or two R-73s would be well within the payload capability of some of those light aircraft #UAV conversions #Ukraine has been using recently 🤔
Remote control SkyRanger or A-22 unlikely to win any dogfights, but ambushing Russian aircraft who think they're safely behind the lines seems quite plausible
Institute for the Study of War
The Kremlin appears to be re-intensifying a reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making using nuclear threats and diplomatic manipulation. Reflexive control is a key element of Russia’s hybrid warfare toolkit — it is a tactic that relies
On the 804th day of Putin's 3-day special military operation, Russia is visually confirmed to have lost at least 3000 tanks
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
https://www.globalfirepower.com/armor-tanks-total.php
On the ground reporting from James Rushton "Both sides have invested heavily in electronic warfare in an attempt to combat the other’s FPV drones"
Interesting we haven't seen more development of kinetic systems specifically designed for small drones, seems like something that could reliably pop FPVs with 100' or so would radically change the balance, and shouldn't be impossible technologically
https://jamesrushton.substack.com/p/the-evolution-of-fight-how-the-use
The evolution of fight; how the use of drones in Ukraine is changing warfare forever
Pictured: Ukrainian FPV drones await delivery to a military unit at an undisclosed location just behind the frontline I’m at a location ten kilometres behind the front line, speaking with “Professor,” the callsign of a soldier from Ukraine’s elite Separate Presidential Brigade of the National Guard. “In the last six months, this war has completely changed,” Professor offered his stark assessment. The Ukrainian soldier was referring specifically to the proliferation of FPV — “first person view” — drones on the battlefield. These unmanned aerial vehicles are small, inexpensive, and so deadly that their deployment en masse by both Ukraine and Russia is having an outsized impact on the battlefield.
The idea that Ukraine shouldn't be allowed to hit sites directly used to attack them was always absurd, but it's especially absurd now
(I don't think the exact parameters of the current policy have ever been spelled out, there's been some statements to the effect counter battery is allowed, but it's pretty clear they aren't allowed to use GMLRS to hit launch sites or anything like that) https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/05/13/7455462/
https://ain.ua/2024/05/15/flash-on-electronic-warfare/
Confirmation a couple Mig 31s and a fuel depot successfully intercepted ATACMS at 0 AGL
"A missile struck the Novorossiysk port and caused a fire to break out, residents said" 👀
~350 km from the front line, in Russia would be new if it was actually a missile.
Claimed UK policy allowing strikes in Russia in effect? Stray Russian AD? Something new?
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-novorossiysk-port-oil-depot-hit-in-overnight-attack/
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims/
Reuters: Tuapse refinery hit by drone resumes work after 3 months of repairs
Rosneft's Tuapse oil refinery has resumed processing after sustaining damage from a drone strike in January. Repairs were reportedly completed at the facility's primary oil refining unit at the end of April.
"Starlink devices - satellite internet the Ukrainian military relies on for basic communication - failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russia’s invasion in February 2022" - Likely not the explanation, but notable the new Kharkiv offensive did start around the same time as the recent solar storm, which was reported to have impacted Starlink to some extent 🤔
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/kharkive-defenses-ukraine-russia-reinvasion/
VANGUARD ⚪️
БМ 9А33БМ3 зі складу комплексу "Оса-АКМ" зі встановленими ракетами Р-73 замість штатних ЗКР 9М33М3 Фото не нове, але до цього майже не фігурувало в інформаційному просторі, тому вирішили поділитися ним у трохи кращій якості. В рамках такої модернізації, на стандартну БМ були встановлені АПУ-73 та додаткове обладнання, для здійснення наведення та захоплення цілі. В результаті, дальність пуску трохи зросла (завдяки новій ракеті). Таким чином вирішується проблема з нестачею зенітних ракет для ЗРК "Оса-АКМ", які ми до цього закуповували в країн Близького Сходу та Африки. Говорити про ефективність зарано та не варто, хоча самі для себе, ми вже висновки зробили Модернізація була реалізована українськими спеціалістами поза програмою FrankenSAM. В цілому, досвід такого використання ракет "повітря-повітря" має не лише Україна. Один з чудових прикладів– Індія. На додачу, українські спеціалісти намагаються інтегрувати ці ракети на морські дрони. VANGUARD #ППО #ЗРК #Оса_АКМ #Р_73
#Ukraine equipping SeaBaby #USV with GRADs 🤨
spread has got to be pretty wild firing from the deck of a speedboat on open water, hard to see it being effective against land targets. Maybe distracting deck gunners in the last few hundred meters of an attack run on a ship?
https://kyivindependent.com/the-sbu-has-a-new-weapon-grad-equipped-sea-baby-drones/
WaPo with a big story on the state of GPS jamming in #Ukraine. Explains why Ukraine started hitting apparently lower value targets more with GMLRS a while back.
Seems like there'd be a lot of value in a home-on-jam modules that can plug into existing avionics (reported elsewhere to be in work for JDAMs).
NYT corroborates the earlier report of Starlink jamming at the start of the Kharkiv offensive https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/technology/ukraine-russia-starlink.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uU0.pmna.AwapTby2TvhF&smid=url-share
Russians finally moving from tires and pained decoys to aircraft shelters of some kind. While the construction isn't clear, doesn't seem like it should take much to significantly reduce risk from #Ukraine's typical attack UAVs. Even if it's not strong enough to survive a direct hit (which seems likely), neighboring aircraft would be at much less risk, and of course, it makes it much harder to tell where the aircraft are
Official-ish confirmation 'no restriction on Ukraine using U.S.-supplied air defenses to shoot down Russian missiles or fighter jets over Russian territory “if they pose a threat to Ukraine"' (as it obviously should be, but there were rumors US objected)
And yeah, the US is understandably not happy about attacks on strategic early warning sites, which likely have little or no direct role in the war against #Ukraine https://wapo.st/4ch10bN
One of the big questions when the Czech initiative was announced, was "how can they find all these shells when US/UK etc couldn't"? And one obvious answer was that the sources were sketchy technically, politically, or both: "According to Strnad, 50% of the shells acquired by his company from Africa and Asia were in such a state that they could not be sent straight away to Ukraine without further work" (that doesn't mean it wasn't worthwhile, but TANSTAAFL)
https://www.twz.com/news-features/russian-fpv-drone-seen-attacking-ukrainian-uncrewed-surface-vessel-for-the-first-time
‘We took out so many of them:’ Ukraine stabilizes Kharkiv front after brutal Russian offensive
Editor’s note: In accordance with the security protocols of the Ukrainian military, soldiers featured in this story are identified by first names and callsigns only. KHARKIV OBLAST – In battles fought under a sky swarming with enemy drones, even the most minimal movement, even the quickest dash from one house to another, is more often spotted than not. “Look, you can see three of them, those black figures moving down the street,” says Nazar, “Artist,” a softly-spoken young artillery commander
Another W for strategic genius Vladimir Vladimirovitch: Attack Kharkiv ostensibly to create a "buffer zone" to protect Belgorod.
Result: Ukraine now allowed to target Belgorod with Excalibur, GMLRS and DPICM
I've often complained about stories on western electronics in Russian weapons not having detail about the specific components. GUR now has a public database (and yeah, as expected, a lot is super common COTS stuff that's essentially unsanctionable)
Foreign components in weapons
Thousands of electronic components, originally intended to improve lives and fuel development, are perversely repurposed by aggressors into instruments of violence. These weapons rely heavily on foreign-made components. Disrupting this supply chain is critical to impede their ability to fight, occupy and kill.
Guy who blocked #Ukraine aid for ~6 months for domestic political reasons, directly leading to significant losses of personnel and territory, is suddenly Very Concerned about restrictions on how that aid is used 🤔 (but hey, given GOP will always claim Biden policy is terrible and wrong, it's certainly preferable to have them doing from the hawkish side)
https://kyivindependent.com/us-micromanaging-war-effort-in-ukraine-johnson-says/
US 'micromanaging' war effort in Ukraine, Speaker Johnson says
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he disagrees with imposing restrictions on Kyiv regarding the use of U.S.-supplied weapons and criticized the Biden administration's "micromanaging the war effort in Ukraine," Voice of America reported on June 5.
https://kyivindependent.com/hur-ukraine-hit-su-57-jet-for-first-time/
Fighterbomber
Да, вчера аэродром в Ахтубинске подвергся атаке БПЛА. 3 штуки долетело. Осколками получил повреждения Су-57, сейчас определяется подлежит он восстановлению, или нет. Если нет, то это будет первая боевая потеря Су-57 в истории. Я еще раз подскажу. За цену только одного этого Су-57, укрытия от БПЛА можно было построить всем самолётам ОТА страны. Разумеется если по пути их не пиздить и не раздавать откаты. И на Лаос бы ещё осталось.
Ben Brockert