Reed MidekeLong thread with a bunch of pictures https://twitter.com/DanielR33187703/status/1772119883419202025
If you needed confirmation #Russia is violating sanctions on #DPRK, they're happy to oblige: "A veto Thursday by Russia ended monitoring of U.N. sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear program… Russia had never before tried to block the work of the panel of experts, which had been renewed annually by the U.N. Security Council for 14 years" https://apnews.com/article/un-us-north-korea-russia-sanctions-monitoring-72f8cbac116dea7c795d9a3357fc45f3
Russia vetoes UN resolution on North Korean sanction monitoring
Russia has vetoed a U.N. resolution in a move that effectively abolishes the monitoring by United Nations experts of U.N. sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear program, though the sanctions themselves remain in place. Russia’s vote prompted Western accusations that Moscow was acting to shield its weapons purchases from North Korea for use in its war against Ukraine, in violation of sanctions. The Security Council resolution sponsored by the United States would have extended the mandate of the panel for a year, but Russia’s veto will halt its operations. Russia's U.N. ambassador says Western nations are trying to “strangle” North Korea and sanctions have proven “irrelevant” and “detached from reality” in reining in its nuclear program.
Earlier today: "Ukraine has attack drones with range of over 1,000 kilometers, says Fedorov" https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-has-attack-drones-with-range-of-over-1-000-kilometers-says-fedorov/
Ukraine has attack drones with range of over 1,000 kilometers, says Fedorov
"Most of the drones that attacked Russian oil refineries have a range of 700 to 1,000 kilometers, but now there are models that can fly over 1000 km," Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.
"This is most probably an Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat, a Ukrainian-produced light aircraft, equipped with an additional fuel tank and a remote control system."
Hard to be sure from the video, but certainly looks plausible
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1775054471875162428
Notably attack on the nearby refinery in Nizhnekamsk appears to have used a different type of #UAV. I can't tell from the wreckage whether it's a Liutyi, but definitely not the same type that hit Yelabuga (low wing and no cockpit, for starters) https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1775193817353753071
Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) on X
Russians recovering the wreckage of the Ukrainian drone Liutyi after an attack on a refinery in Tatarstan Read more about Ukraine's long-range one-way attack drone Liutyi in our recent article: https://t.co/GhxwzIrF2d 📹via https://t.co/Kry3ntAdZy
Ukrainska Pravda has claimed pictures of the #UAV #Ukraine used to strike Yelabuga. To my eye it doesn't look much like an Aeroprakt A-22: Fuselage is much boxier, empennage and wing struts are different (struts look like a copy/paste from a Citabria).
Anyway, >3000 km and 300 kg payload should give Russian AD planners some interesting dilemmas
Plot twist: The #UAV pictured in the UP tweet above doesn't look like a A-22, but *also* doesn't look like the thing that was used on Yelabuga, which does indeed look more like the A-22 (again, rear fuselage and vertical stab)… strongly suggesting #Ukraine has several different developments along these lines https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1775848881709863040
Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) on X
/2. I don’t think that the E-300 specifically was used to attack targets on the territory of Tatarstan. Since the tail section of the unknown drone was much slimmer than that of the E-300. But the example of the E-300 shows how approximately an A-22 already modified into a…
#UAV pictured by UP is apparently AeroDrone E-300 https://dev.ua/news/shymkiv-1710586721
«Усі іноземці, які бачать мої літаки, кажуть: „Блін, як дешево“. Усі українці, які дивляться, кажуть: „Дорого“». Як Дмитро Шимків розвиває компанію-виробника БПЛА, що можуть гайнути на 3100 км аж за Урал
Минулого тижня технопідприємець Дмитро Шимків дав велике інтерв’ю «Економічній правді» про безпілотники D-80 Discovery та E-300 Enterprise, які виробляє компанія AeroDrone, де Дмитро є інвестором. «Чому я зайшов у цей стартап? Перше — це вага. У світі багато людей займається безпілотною авіацією, але найчастіше мова йде про легкі літаки. Далі йдуть середні, а далі нема нічого аж до літаків, які піднімають одну-дві тонни, наприклад, MQ-9 Reaper. Тобто є велика незайнята ніша», — каже він. У компанії Дмитро відповідаж за бізнес-девелопмент, інвестори, взаємини з держструктурами. За словами Шимківа, нині літальні апарати, що виготовляє AeroDrone, не контрактує Міністерство оборони. Хоча літаки можуть пролетіти понад 3000 км. Наразі компанія виготовляє тільки одиниці літаків на місяць. Для серійного виробництва немає замовлень.
Russia pulling out of the grain deal has turned out to be quite the own goal "Over 36 million metric tons of goods have been shipped through Ukraine's Black Sea corridor since its opening in August 2023, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said on April 6" https://kyivindependent.com/minister-over-36-million-tons-of-goods-exported-via-black-sea-corridor/
Minister: Over 36 million tons of goods exported via Black Sea corridor since August 2023
According to Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukraine's corridor has already facilitated shipments of more goods than the Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by Turkey and the U.N. in July 2022.
Cameron framing targeting missiles and drones (presumably in Ukrainian airspace) as "NATO troops directly engaging with Russian troops" seems like a stretch, but it does seem pretty impractical. Operating in Ukrainian airspace within range of RU SAMs / AAMs would obviously be a major escalation risk and deconfliction with Ukrainian AD could be pretty sketchy too
Deploying jets to protect Ukraine would lead to escalation, UK foreign secretary says
Deploying Western fighter jets to protect Ukraine from missile strikes, as was done for Israel on April 14, would lead to "dangerous escalation," U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron said on air on April 15.
Having hundreds of miles of friendly airspace between the target and launch sites made the Israel case much simpler. I guess they could use long range AAMs from Romanian or Polish airspace to cover bits of the west and south, but in that case SAMs might be the simpler option https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/possible-cover-up-of-ukraine-s-west-by-patriot-1713124780.html
Ukrainian presidential plane in… Chicago? 🤔 (it often carries other high level diplomats)
Context: A lot of secondary explosions at #Dzhankoy airbase in occupied #Crimea https://t.me/astrapress/53447
Whatever Johnson's actual motives and beliefs, I can't help but think this is a big factor: "Then again, Johnson’s majority is about to shrink to just a single vote with the impending resignation of Wisconsin Representative Mike Gallagher" - With 3 or 4, he could try to hang on and get some things done without dem cooperation. With 1? No. And the wingnut caucus is so divorced from reality that trying to get them to accept the limits of a 1 vote majority would be futile
https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/did-mike-johnson-just-get-religion-on-ukraine
https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/did-mike-johnson-just-get-religion-on-ukraine
Meanwhile, #Ukraine is claiming the TU-22M that crashed in Stavropol Krai was taken down by a modified S-200 🤔 https://www.twz.com/air/russian-tu-22m3-backfire-shot-down-with-s-200-missile-ukraines-spy-chief
Like the earlier claimed A-50 shot, described to be a long planned operation "Budanov, the chief of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) told BBC Ukraine that the operation involved a week-long “ambush” where Ukrainian forces waited for the Russian bomber to reach the desired range", implying very limited flexibility https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/20/week-long-ambush-preceded-historic-russian-tu-22-bomber-downing-ukraine-intel-chief-says-confirming-s-200-use/
"Week-long ambush" preceded historic Russian Tu-22 bomber downing, Ukraine intel chief says, confirming S-200 use - Euromaidan Press
Ukraine's military intelligence chief reveals details of the successful operation to down a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber, confirms the use of the S-200 surface-to-air missile.
Also "A Ukrainian defense official confirmed to TWZ that Ukraine had received “help from partners” to produce an updated guidance system for the S-200. “The missile itself has a good maneuvering system, so if provided with proper guidance is quite a modern weapon,”"
One can imagine replacing the 70s GNC with modern stuff would give you a fair bit of mass to play with. And if you can deliver it ballistically to the target area and have a modern seeker take over 🤔
One can imagine replacing the 70s GNC with modern stuff would give you a fair bit of mass to play with. And if you can deliver it ballistically to the target area and have a modern seeker take over 🤔
Also raises the question whether the earlier apparent use as a not-very-effective ballistic land attack missile were actually tests. OTOH, with adequate guidance, it should make a pretty decent land attack missile too
Kyiv Independent round-up of the S-200 claims (doesn't add much in the way of specifics)
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-obsolete-s-200-missile-systems-reportedly-back-on-track-to-hit-russian-targets/
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-obsolete-s-200-missile-systems-reportedly-back-on-track-to-hit-russian-targets/
Ukraine's obsolete S-200 missile systems reportedly back on track to hit Russian targets
The first Russian Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber was reportedly shot down by Ukraine and crashed over Russia's Stavropol Krai overnight on April 19. The aircraft was carrying out a combat mission when a Soviet-era S-200 anti-aircraft system shot it down, an intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent. The Russian Defense
HAH, they actually did it, "ammunition for HIMARS" in the March #Ukraine aid package included ATACMS
Previously: "Despite earlier media reports suggesting that ATACMS long-range missiles would be included in the package, the missiles were notably absent from the Pentagon's list of weapons provided" https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-300-million-defense-aid-package-for-ukraine/ but as I noted (https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112086363167384232), the wording didn't actually specify the type, it just used the same "Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems" verbiage they used for GMLRS in the past
Politico "The Biden administration warned Russia that attacking Ukraine’s energy grid and using North Korean-provided missiles would lead the U.S. to reconsider sending ATACMS to Ukraine" (Good: If you're going to restrict weapons in the name of "escalation management" those restrictions should also be subject to the other guy's behavior)
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-range-missiles-ukraine-00154110
Boring-sounding but probably significant inclusion in the latest #Ukraine package: "Airfield support equipment" https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3754238/biden-administration-announces-significant-new-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
More on that (presumed) #Ukraine UAV which crashed with an OFAB-100: It appears to be a SkyRanger (Originally a French ultralight design, also built / marketed by various others https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Best_Off_Skyranger), not the previously A-22 or purpose built drones, and was likely intended to drop the bomb rather than crashing into the target https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-appears-to-be-using-light-planes-converted-into-reusable-bomber-drones
At $30K for the airframe kit and probably not more than that for the UAV conversion, it'd cost less than a Javelin shot
Reportedly, footage of a Ukrainian #YAK52 shooting down a Russian UAV. Gunner in the back with a rifle seems fairly dubious, but a moderately high performance prop plane with modern sights seems like it could be pretty effective for Shahed hunting away from the front lines
Reportedly over Odesa, which should be safe from Russia AA… hopefully they have good communication with the local SAM crews 😬
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1784253644646318248
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1784253644646318248
"…Holod has revealed a significant increase in illegal arms trafficking in the Belgorod region. Presently, people can buy Kalashnikov assault rifles, hand grenades and even silenced pistols used by special forces for prices ranging from $300 to $350"
Remember at the start of the invasion, when Russian propagandists claimed western aid to #Ukraine would end up in the hands of criminals and terrorists in Europe? https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-april-29-30-2024
Remember at the start of the invasion, when Russian propagandists claimed western aid to #Ukraine would end up in the hands of criminals and terrorists in Europe? https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-april-29-30-2024
No doubt some eventually will if they haven't already, but so far it seems much more widespread in Russia
"Defense Ministry working to limit satellite imaging of Ukrainian territory"
Unless that work involves lasers, I suspect it effect will be limited (though making it more difficult for Russia to get their hands on western commercial imagery is probably worthwhile)
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-working-to-limit-satellite-imaging-of-ukrainian-territory/
Cameron's "Kyiv can use British weapons inside Russia" been circulating for about a day without a walk-back 🤨
If an actual policy change you'd expect some Storm Shadow strikes to follow shortly
As predicted (https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112039463358735064), it's happening: "In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles"
R-73 seems like a good fit: Good off axis capability, doesn't require radar, no worries about western suppliers complaining or having tech captured. Supply might be an issue, but numbers needed for #USV missions should be pretty small
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1787486896232321173
OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) on X
In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles. Based on the footage, some Ukrainian USVs now possess a nascent SAM capability, likely able to target low and slow Russian helicopters.
Also of note, one or two R-73s would be well within the payload capability of some of those light aircraft #UAV conversions #Ukraine has been using recently 🤔
Remote control SkyRanger or A-22 unlikely to win any dogfights, but ambushing Russian aircraft who think they're safely behind the lines seems quite plausible
Also as noted in that @osinttechnical thread, an M-24 went down last month off shore of Crimea in unclear circumstances🤔
"Russia may be switching sides in the Sudanese civil war to support the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)"🤨 Possibly an awkward moment for the Ukrainian HUR operatives who were (allegedly) helping the SAF https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-6-2024
Institute for the Study of War
The Kremlin appears to be re-intensifying a reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making using nuclear threats and diplomatic manipulation. Reflexive control is a key element of Russia’s hybrid warfare toolkit — it is a tactic that relies
On the 804th day of Putin's 3-day special military operation, Russia is visually confirmed to have lost at least 3000 tanks
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
According to Global Firepower's (not terribly reliable) list, only seven countries in the world currently posses more tanks than Russia has lost in Ukraine
https://www.globalfirepower.com/armor-tanks-total.php
https://www.globalfirepower.com/armor-tanks-total.php
On the ground reporting from James Rushton "Both sides have invested heavily in electronic warfare in an attempt to combat the other’s FPV drones"
Interesting we haven't seen more development of kinetic systems specifically designed for small drones, seems like something that could reliably pop FPVs with 100' or so would radically change the balance, and shouldn't be impossible technologically
https://jamesrushton.substack.com/p/the-evolution-of-fight-how-the-use
The evolution of fight; how the use of drones in Ukraine is changing warfare forever
Pictured: Ukrainian FPV drones await delivery to a military unit at an undisclosed location just behind the frontline I’m at a location ten kilometres behind the front line, speaking with “Professor,” the callsign of a soldier from Ukraine’s elite Separate Presidential Brigade of the National Guard. “In the last six months, this war has completely changed,” Professor offered his stark assessment. The Ukrainian soldier was referring specifically to the proliferation of FPV — “first person view” — drones on the battlefield. These unmanned aerial vehicles are small, inexpensive, and so deadly that their deployment en masse by both Ukraine and Russia is having an outsized impact on the battlefield.
The idea that Ukraine shouldn't be allowed to hit sites directly used to attack them was always absurd, but it's especially absurd now
(I don't think the exact parameters of the current policy have ever been spelled out, there's been some statements to the effect counter battery is allowed, but it's pretty clear they aren't allowed to use GMLRS to hit launch sites or anything like that) https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970
Ukrainska Pravda has published an English translation of their history of the Liutyi long range attack #UAV, used for many of the refinery strikes
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/05/13/7455462/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/05/13/7455462/
Ukraine has the opportunity to build funniest exploding #USV of all time (yeah, they're probably better off pocketing the cash and buying regular ones…) https://kyivindependent.com/medvechuks-yacht-officially-transferred-to-ukrainian-state/
Belbek airfield in temporarily occupied Crimea on fire for the second night in a row. Russian propagandists claim ATACMS were shot down, for the second night in a row ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/20811579
Interesting read on the state of electronic warfare in Ukraine. Apparently a large part done by small teams of volunteers supporting individual units, because (google translate) "A small trench EW has a small margin, and large enterprises are not interested in doing it… Small trench REBs have a cost price of $1,000, and then they need to be guaranteed, serviced and repaired…"
https://ain.ua/2024/05/15/flash-on-electronic-warfare/
https://ain.ua/2024/05/15/flash-on-electronic-warfare/
"Also, large manufacturers do not like to deal with the state. Because everyone knows that today you are saving the country, then in a year SAP, NABU, SBU will come to you, and they will accuse you of overpricing or corruption, because you sold this device not for $1,000, but for $2,000"
"A separate question for small manufacturers will be a question from the authorities in the future: where did you get the modules for electronic devices? And in our country, 100% of all small electronic devices work on Chinese modules. Of course, all these modules are brought here semi-smuggled. It is officially forbidden to import them into the country, because these modules are marked as special vehicles"
"These are actually radio emitting devices that transmit and also emit interference, so they cannot be brought into the country just like that. But nowadays no one follows these bureaucratic procedures. We have a war and we need these modules, so now the government turns a blind eye to it. Therefore, the supply of modules to Ukraine, as before, takes place in violation of the legislation"
Confirmation a couple Mig 31s and a fuel depot successfully intercepted ATACMS at 0 AGL
"A missile struck the Novorossiysk port and caused a fire to break out, residents said" 👀
~350 km from the front line, in Russia would be new if it was actually a missile.
Claimed UK policy allowing strikes in Russia in effect? Stray Russian AD? Something new?
https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-novorossiysk-port-oil-depot-hit-in-overnight-attack/
Tuapse refinery was previously hit Jan 25, resumed production May 6 (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-tuapse-refinery-hit-by-drone-resumes-work-after-3-months-of-repairs/). Hit again May 17. One-off strikes never seemed likely to make a very significant impact, but a repeat rate like that could become a big deal pretty quickly. Of course, we don't know the extent of damage this time
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims/
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims/
Reuters: Tuapse refinery hit by drone resumes work after 3 months of repairs
Rosneft's Tuapse oil refinery has resumed processing after sustaining damage from a drone strike in January. Repairs were reportedly completed at the facility's primary oil refining unit at the end of April.
"Starlink devices - satellite internet the Ukrainian military relies on for basic communication - failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russia’s invasion in February 2022" - Likely not the explanation, but notable the new Kharkiv offensive did start around the same time as the recent solar storm, which was reported to have impacted Starlink to some extent 🤔
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/kharkive-defenses-ukraine-russia-reinvasion/
Another R-73 surface launch variant appears, this time on a Osa-AKM https://t.me/vanguard_spacepro/13656
VANGUARD ⚪️
БМ 9А33БМ3 зі складу комплексу "Оса-АКМ" зі встановленими ракетами Р-73 замість штатних ЗКР 9М33М3 Фото не нове, але до цього майже не фігурувало в інформаційному просторі, тому вирішили поділитися ним у трохи кращій якості. В рамках такої модернізації, на стандартну БМ були встановлені АПУ-73 та додаткове обладнання, для здійснення наведення та захоплення цілі. В результаті, дальність пуску трохи зросла (завдяки новій ракеті). Таким чином вирішується проблема з нестачею зенітних ракет для ЗРК "Оса-АКМ", які ми до цього закуповували в країн Близького Сходу та Африки. Говорити про ефективність зарано та не варто, хоча самі для себе, ми вже висновки зробили Модернізація була реалізована українськими спеціалістами поза програмою FrankenSAM. В цілому, досвід такого використання ракет "повітря-повітря" має не лише Україна. Один з чудових прикладів– Індія. На додачу, українські спеціалісти намагаються інтегрувати ці ракети на морські дрони. VANGUARD #ППО #ЗРК #Оса_АКМ #Р_73
#Ukraine equipping SeaBaby #USV with GRADs 🤨
spread has got to be pretty wild firing from the deck of a speedboat on open water, hard to see it being effective against land targets. Maybe distracting deck gunners in the last few hundred meters of an attack run on a ship?
https://kyivindependent.com/the-sbu-has-a-new-weapon-grad-equipped-sea-baby-drones/
Now if those tubes were Brimstones or APKWS and you had a friendly UAV with a laser…
WaPo with a big story on the state of GPS jamming in #Ukraine. Explains why Ukraine started hitting apparently lower value targets more with GMLRS a while back.
Seems like there'd be a lot of value in a home-on-jam modules that can plug into existing avionics (reported elsewhere to be in work for JDAMs).
NYT corroborates the earlier report of Starlink jamming at the start of the Kharkiv offensive https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/technology/ukraine-russia-starlink.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uU0.pmna.AwapTby2TvhF&smid=url-share
Russians finally moving from tires and pained decoys to aircraft shelters of some kind. While the construction isn't clear, doesn't seem like it should take much to significantly reduce risk from #Ukraine's typical attack UAVs. Even if it's not strong enough to survive a direct hit (which seems likely), neighboring aircraft would be at much less risk, and of course, it makes it much harder to tell where the aircraft are
Also, temu's targeted advertising is on point, though I suspect the Russians bought a higher end model
Official-ish confirmation 'no restriction on Ukraine using U.S.-supplied air defenses to shoot down Russian missiles or fighter jets over Russian territory “if they pose a threat to Ukraine"' (as it obviously should be, but there were rumors US objected)
And yeah, the US is understandably not happy about attacks on strategic early warning sites, which likely have little or no direct role in the war against #Ukraine https://wapo.st/4ch10bN
One of the big questions when the Czech initiative was announced, was "how can they find all these shells when US/UK etc couldn't"? And one obvious answer was that the sources were sketchy technically, politically, or both: "According to Strnad, 50% of the shells acquired by his company from Africa and Asia were in such a state that they could not be sent straight away to Ukraine without further work" (that doesn't mean it wasn't worthwhile, but TANSTAAFL)
