Couple interesting bits: "The limiting factor is the number of Su-24s left, which would be in the single digits"
[not totally clear but limit under discussion seems to relate to how many you'd need to be able to launch in a salvo for enough to get through. But given the timelines discussed, F-16s might change that in relatively short order]
On planning around AD "…because KSA [German military intelligence unit] doesn’t have a clear representation of where all the air defense systems are located.
But the Ukrainians have that, hopefully. Because from what I see with us, only the radar device is shown. But for us to have a clear plan, we really need to look at where the radar and launch devices are located"
Russia experimenting with wire guided FPV drones? 🤔 Seems limiting, but maybe OK for defensive positions and ambushes. Also shouldn't be too hard to make one that can cut the fiber and fall back to radio if it gets snagged or reaches the range limit, limiting the window for detection and EW disruption
https://www.twz.com/air/russia-now-looks-to-be-using-wire-guided-kamikaze-drones-in-ukraine
In the two years since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has forcibly deported thousands of Ukrainian children. While the total number of these deported minors is unknown, Kyiv has reported nearly 20,000. After the children are separated from their families and taken to Russia, the Russian authorities begin working to make them forget about their home country, telling them that their parents aren’t coming to get them and that Russia is their home. To learn how this system works, Meduza special correspondent Lilia Yapparova studied thousands of documents and spoke with employees from Russia’s Education Ministry, the main agency responsible for these “reeducation” measures.
If you wondered how #Ukraine ended up with two broadly similar attack #USV families (#Magura and #SeaBaby), according to this story: "Disputes over quality control, budget, and design specifications between the SBU and the [Magura] developer disrupted the program in 2022, leading the SBU to sever ties and start an independent naval drone project that later resulted in Sea Baby USV … The ousted company then partnered with [HUR]"
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/14/magura-v5-naval-drones-to-get-anti-air-and-dive-capabilities/
Ukraine's Magura V5 naval drones, successful in sinking Russian ships, aim for upgrades to improve defense against Russian attack helicopters and ship armament during suicide missions, enhancing their capabilities in challenging Russia's Black Sea Fleet dominance.
"During the [prisoner] exchanges, we conduct a survey of those released from captivity and ask if they have seen representatives from the International Committee of the Red Cross. So far, there has been not one positive response"
(Ukraine does grant ICRC regular access to the POWs they hold)
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, most major Western fast-food chains closed up shop, sold off assets, and exited the Russian market. This was particularly true of the highly visible food sector. Major Western food and drink chains, including McDonald’s, Domino’s Pizza, Starbucks, KFC, Pizza Hut, Hard Rock Cafe, and the Jamie Oliver Group, have all since left Russia. A small cohort of six American fast-food chains decided otherwise. The franchises of Subway, Carl’s Jr., Papa John’s, Costa
Russia and India had signed a deal to buy five squadrons of the S-400 air defence system, of which three have already been supplied, while the remaining two could not be supplied on time due to developing situations in view of the Russia-Ukraine war, which is still ongoing.
Russia has vetoed a U.N. resolution in a move that effectively abolishes the monitoring by United Nations experts of U.N. sanctions against North Korea over its nuclear program, though the sanctions themselves remain in place. Russia’s vote prompted Western accusations that Moscow was acting to shield its weapons purchases from North Korea for use in its war against Ukraine, in violation of sanctions. The Security Council resolution sponsored by the United States would have extended the mandate of the panel for a year, but Russia’s veto will halt its operations. Russia's U.N. ambassador says Western nations are trying to “strangle” North Korea and sanctions have proven “irrelevant” and “detached from reality” in reining in its nuclear program.
"Most of the drones that attacked Russian oil refineries have a range of 700 to 1,000 kilometers, but now there are models that can fly over 1000 km," Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.
"This is most probably an Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat, a Ukrainian-produced light aircraft, equipped with an additional fuel tank and a remote control system."
Hard to be sure from the video, but certainly looks plausible
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1775054471875162428
Russians recovering the wreckage of the Ukrainian drone Liutyi after an attack on a refinery in Tatarstan Read more about Ukraine's long-range one-way attack drone Liutyi in our recent article: https://t.co/GhxwzIrF2d 📹via https://t.co/Kry3ntAdZy
Ukrainska Pravda has claimed pictures of the #UAV #Ukraine used to strike Yelabuga. To my eye it doesn't look much like an Aeroprakt A-22: Fuselage is much boxier, empennage and wing struts are different (struts look like a copy/paste from a Citabria).
Anyway, >3000 km and 300 kg payload should give Russian AD planners some interesting dilemmas
/2. I don’t think that the E-300 specifically was used to attack targets on the territory of Tatarstan. Since the tail section of the unknown drone was much slimmer than that of the E-300. But the example of the E-300 shows how approximately an A-22 already modified into a…
Минулого тижня технопідприємець Дмитро Шимків дав велике інтерв’ю «Економічній правді» про безпілотники D-80 Discovery та E-300 Enterprise, які виробляє компанія AeroDrone, де Дмитро є інвестором. «Чому я зайшов у цей стартап? Перше — це вага. У світі багато людей займається безпілотною авіацією, але найчастіше мова йде про легкі літаки. Далі йдуть середні, а далі нема нічого аж до літаків, які піднімають одну-дві тонни, наприклад, MQ-9 Reaper. Тобто є велика незайнята ніша», — каже він. У компанії Дмитро відповідаж за бізнес-девелопмент, інвестори, взаємини з держструктурами. За словами Шимківа, нині літальні апарати, що виготовляє AeroDrone, не контрактує Міністерство оборони. Хоча літаки можуть пролетіти понад 3000 км. Наразі компанія виготовляє тільки одиниці літаків на місяць. Для серійного виробництва немає замовлень.
According to Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukraine's corridor has already facilitated shipments of more goods than the Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by Turkey and the U.N. in July 2022.
Cameron framing targeting missiles and drones (presumably in Ukrainian airspace) as "NATO troops directly engaging with Russian troops" seems like a stretch, but it does seem pretty impractical. Operating in Ukrainian airspace within range of RU SAMs / AAMs would obviously be a major escalation risk and deconfliction with Ukrainian AD could be pretty sketchy too
Deploying Western fighter jets to protect Ukraine from missile strikes, as was done for Israel on April 14, would lead to "dangerous escalation," U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron said on air on April 15.
Context: A lot of secondary explosions at #Dzhankoy airbase in occupied #Crimea https://t.me/astrapress/53447
Ukraine's military intelligence chief reveals details of the successful operation to down a Russian Tu-22M3 bomber, confirms the use of the S-200 surface-to-air missile.
The first Russian Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber was reportedly shot down by Ukraine and crashed over Russia's Stavropol Krai overnight on April 19. The aircraft was carrying out a combat mission when a Soviet-era S-200 anti-aircraft system shot it down, an intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent. The Russian Defense
HAH, they actually did it, "ammunition for HIMARS" in the March #Ukraine aid package included ATACMS
Politico "The Biden administration warned Russia that attacking Ukraine’s energy grid and using North Korean-provided missiles would lead the U.S. to reconsider sending ATACMS to Ukraine" (Good: If you're going to restrict weapons in the name of "escalation management" those restrictions should also be subject to the other guy's behavior)
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/us-long-range-missiles-ukraine-00154110
Reportedly, footage of a Ukrainian #YAK52 shooting down a Russian UAV. Gunner in the back with a rifle seems fairly dubious, but a moderately high performance prop plane with modern sights seems like it could be pretty effective for Shahed hunting away from the front lines
"Defense Ministry working to limit satellite imaging of Ukrainian territory"
Unless that work involves lasers, I suspect it effect will be limited (though making it more difficult for Russia to get their hands on western commercial imagery is probably worthwhile)
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-working-to-limit-satellite-imaging-of-ukrainian-territory/
Cameron's "Kyiv can use British weapons inside Russia" been circulating for about a day without a walk-back 🤨
If an actual policy change you'd expect some Storm Shadow strikes to follow shortly
As predicted (https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112039463358735064), it's happening: "In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles"
R-73 seems like a good fit: Good off axis capability, doesn't require radar, no worries about western suppliers complaining or having tech captured. Supply might be an issue, but numbers needed for #USV missions should be pretty small
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1787486896232321173
In the Black Sea, Russian forces spotted a Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles. Based on the footage, some Ukrainian USVs now possess a nascent SAM capability, likely able to target low and slow Russian helicopters.
Also of note, one or two R-73s would be well within the payload capability of some of those light aircraft #UAV conversions #Ukraine has been using recently 🤔
Remote control SkyRanger or A-22 unlikely to win any dogfights, but ambushing Russian aircraft who think they're safely behind the lines seems quite plausible
The Kremlin appears to be re-intensifying a reflexive control campaign targeting Western decision-making using nuclear threats and diplomatic manipulation. Reflexive control is a key element of Russia’s hybrid warfare toolkit — it is a tactic that relies
On the 804th day of Putin's 3-day special military operation, Russia is visually confirmed to have lost at least 3000 tanks
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
On the ground reporting from James Rushton "Both sides have invested heavily in electronic warfare in an attempt to combat the other’s FPV drones"
Interesting we haven't seen more development of kinetic systems specifically designed for small drones, seems like something that could reliably pop FPVs with 100' or so would radically change the balance, and shouldn't be impossible technologically
https://jamesrushton.substack.com/p/the-evolution-of-fight-how-the-use
Pictured: Ukrainian FPV drones await delivery to a military unit at an undisclosed location just behind the frontline I’m at a location ten kilometres behind the front line, speaking with “Professor,” the callsign of a soldier from Ukraine’s elite Separate Presidential Brigade of the National Guard. “In the last six months, this war has completely changed,” Professor offered his stark assessment. The Ukrainian soldier was referring specifically to the proliferation of FPV — “first person view” — drones on the battlefield. These unmanned aerial vehicles are small, inexpensive, and so deadly that their deployment en masse by both Ukraine and Russia is having an outsized impact on the battlefield.
The idea that Ukraine shouldn't be allowed to hit sites directly used to attack them was always absurd, but it's especially absurd now
(I don't think the exact parameters of the current policy have ever been spelled out, there's been some statements to the effect counter battery is allowed, but it's pretty clear they aren't allowed to use GMLRS to hit launch sites or anything like that) https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970
@reedmideke Early in the war I had the thought that buying corruption in your adversary’s military is a doubly good deal, because you can steal their materiel and also just burn the source and cause more widely-spread suspicion at any convenient time.
But just buying the stuff now seems like a good deal as well. Same for buying the spares airframes from Kazakh and anyone else who is on the market.
Reed Mideke
Ben Brockert