Julius Garbe

Last week we published the first-ever Global Tipping Points Report at #COP28šŸŒ.

āž”ļø https://global-tipping-points.org

I contributed to the chapter on tipping points in the cryosphere šŸ§Šā„ļøšŸ‡¦šŸ‡¶šŸ‡¬šŸ‡±, led by Prof. Ricarda Winkelmann.

#GlobalTippingPoints #Climate #TippingPoints #GTPR2023

A quick šŸ§µ:

Global Tipping Points | understanding risks & their potential impact

Harmful tipping points in the natural world threaten humanity by disrupting life support systems and societal stability.

Global Tipping Points
Dec 16, 2023 at 11:23amWeb
Show threadJulius GarbeDec 16, 2023
The report identifies ā€œnegativeā€ tipping points (TPs) in the Earth system, ranging from ice-sheet collapse to rainforest dieback, but also focuses on ā€œpositiveā€ TPs in socio-economical, technical & political systems that could trigger positive change and thus mitigate risks. /2
Show threadJulius GarbeDec 16, 2023
I will focus here only on TPs in the #Cryosphere (the Earthā€™s frozen parts), which is most vulnerable to global climate warming.
If youā€™d like to learn more about what TPs are first, see this nice explainer by CarbonBrief, for example: https://carbonbrief.org/explainer-nine-tipping-points-that-could-be-triggered-by-climate-change/ /3
Explainer: Nine ā€˜tipping pointsā€™ that could be triggered by climate change - Carbon Brief

Tipping points are thresholds where a tiny change could push a system into a completely new state.

Carbon Brief
Show threadJulius GarbeDec 16, 2023
Letā€™s start with the Executive Summary: In the cryosphere, six TPs are identified, including large-scale TPs for the Greenland & Antarctic #IceSheets. Localised TPs likely exist for #Glaciers and #Permafrost thaw. Evidence for large-scale TPs in #SeaIce and permafrost is limited. /4
Show threadJulius GarbeDec 16, 2023
Already at todayā€™s 1.2Ā°C global warming, we cannot rule out that the ice sheets of #Greenland and #WestAntarctica may pass their TPs eventually, resulting in several meters of committed long-term #SeaLevelRise, and that parts of #Permafrost become subject to abrupt thaw. /5
Show threadJulius GarbeDec 16, 2023
At sustained >2Ā°C global warming, large subglacial basins in #EastAntarctica could also cross their TPs, and irreversible collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets is likely to become locked in, with far-reaching impacts for the livelihoods of millions of people. /6
Show threadJulius GarbeDec 16, 2023
Note: Because of the long response times of these systems, some impacts of crossing TPs will unfold over centuries to millennia. However, with the current trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, such largely irreversible changes might already be triggered within a few decades. /7
Show threadJulius GarbeDec 16, 2023
Last but not least: Earthā€™s tipping systems can interact in ways that destabilise one another, making tipping ā€˜cascadesā€™ possible, where tipping one system causes another TP to be passed. But, although generally possible, such domino effects are currently still highly uncertain! /8
Show threadJulius GarbeDec 16, 2023
For further details regarding the ā€˜negativeā€™, but particularly also the ā€˜positiveā€™ TPs assessed in the #GTPR2023 report, please check out the reportā€™s webpage ā€“ itā€™s all freely accessible: https://global-tipping-points.org
/end of šŸ§µ
Global Tipping Points | understanding risks & their potential impact

Harmful tipping points in the natural world threaten humanity by disrupting life support systems and societal stability.

Global Tipping Points