Antarctica Director @ICCInet | PhD candidate @PIK_climate. #IceSheets, #SeaLevelRise, Earth system #Resilience & #TippingPoints. Focus on #AntarcticIceSheet stability.
🌐 https://juliusgarbe.github.io
| Homepage | https://juliusgarbe.github.io |
| ORCID | https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3140-3307 |
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The point of no return: New evidence shows Antarctic melting is already locked in
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/03/the-point-of-no-return-new-evidence-shows-antarctic-melting-is-already-locked-in/?utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=activitypub
Posted into Mother Jones: Recent Coverage @mother-jones-recent-coverage-motherjonesmag
🆕 study: Global warming must stay below 2°C and return to 1.5°C as quickly as possible to reduce tipping point risks. Long term, temperatures must cool to 1°C above pre-industrial levels, scientists from University of Exeter, CICERO - Center for International Climate Research & PIK find.
“It’s concerning that, even with a small and relatively brief overshoot of the 1.5°C target, up to five Earth system tipping points could be triggered ,” says PIK's Nico Wunderling.
Climate change threatens the future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here the authors show that individual drainage basins have different thresholds and loss patterns, suggesting the need to consider the dynamical interactive nature of the basins and their individual tipping points.
11/ Finally: I’m endlessly excited seeing this paper out there at last — it was a record-breaking time in the making.
Enormous thanks to my co-authors at @PIK_climate and @mpi_gea, without whom this work would not have been possible!
/End
10/ Our analysis identifies which regions of the ice sheet require closest monitoring and where the largest long-term risks lie.
The lesson is clear: reducing GHG emissions rapidly remains imperative to limit further destabilization of Antarctic ice basins and future irreversible sea-level rise.
9/ The Antarctic Ice Sheet took millions of years to form. Yet, with continued emissions, we may commit parts of it to irreversible long-term loss — potentially within decades.
Near-term emissions determine how many thresholds we may cross in the long-term.
8/ The Antarctic Ice Sheet contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by >58 meters if melted entirely.
We are NOT talking about this happening soon.
But several individual basins have the potential to contribute meters of long-term sea-level rise if their thresholds are crossed.
7/ Another key insight: the ice drainage basins interact.
Ice loss in one region can lead to dynamic feedbacks in neighboring regions, increasing the risk of cascading responses.
Mother Jones
Garry Peterson
Nature Portfolio
PIK_climate
Ruth Mottram